Tadej Pogačar has admitted in recent days that he is scared about the possibility of Remco Evenepoel getting stronger as a result of his move to Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe.
Former world number one and ace cycling analyst Sean Kelly agrees on the danger, but does feel Evenepoel’s prospects of a possible Tour de France win hinge on a couple of conditions.
The Belgian is 16 months younger than Pogačar and three years younger than Jonas Vingegaard. Those two riders have between them won the past six editions of the Tour, and are the biggest barrier to success for Evenepoel.
However Kelly feels that age gap could prove very important.
“First of all Pogačar, how long is he going to go on for?,” he told Velo. “He could just do another two years and say, ‘ah, the Tour de France, I have won enough of them and I want to do something else.’
“He loves cycling and there is talk of him doing cyclo cross, there is a lot of stuff [other goals] being mentioned at the moment.
“And if Vingegaard is also starting to maybe not perform as well as he has been performing…”
‘He will definitely get closer’
This year Danish star Vingegaard finished second overall in the Tour and then won the Vuelta a España.
Those were both very strong performances, but there was a period in the latter race where he didn’t quite seem to be firing on all cylinders. This is something Kelly references while also acknowledging could be down to post-Tour fatigue.
Still, the Irishman sees the Visma-Lease a Bike leader as potentially vulnerable. There was a three minute one second gap between him and Evenepoel at the end of the 2024 Tour de France but, with that being the Belgian’s first-ever participation in the race and with Vingegaard potentially now plateauing due to age, Kelly feels that gap may well not persist.
“I think if Remco improves a bit more he will definitely get closer to Vingegaard. And of course Vingegaard is older as well.
“So yeah, I think Remco would win the Tour in the right conditions. And definitely if the two big ones are out of the way.”
Belgium will be feverish in its support, having waited decades for a new winner of the Tour. The nation savored the success of Eddy Merckx, who dominated the sport and won five editions of the race between 1969 and 1974.
Lucien van Impe then triumphed in 1976 but, despite that run of success, that was the last time the nation won the race.
Many years later, Evenepoel is trying to end that impasse. The next edition would mark 50 years since Van Impe’s triumph, but Kelly feels the wait may take a little longer.
“To win the Tour against Pogačar is hard to see now. In the first mountain stages in the Tour we saw the way he just rode away. He put two minutes into Vingegaard and almost four minutes into the other guys. I think he is untouchable at the moment. If he continues at that level he had this year into next year, I don’t see anyone challenging him to win the Tour.”
Putting the clout of Red Bull behind him
Patience and persistence are, it seems, the key requirements for Evenepoel at this point in time.
He’s undoubtedly a very talented and driven rider, but it may take a little longer for everything to go his way.
Still, at 25, he’s continuing to improve. Time is on his side and moving to Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe should bring about another step up in his level.
The German squad has a much bigger budget than Evenepoel’s previous team Soudal Quick-Step, and should also offer a stronger GC support from the other riders.
A deeper array of staff will provide valuable expertise, and the benefits of the Red Bull Athlete Performance Center should be considerable.
The one question is about how everything will gel together.
Kelly points out that there was a clash in the past concerning Primož Roglič at the 2023 Vuelta a España. Towards the end of the race the Slovenian appeared dissatisfied to work for his-then Visma-Lease a Bike teammate Sepp Kuss, although he eventually did row in behind the American and help him win overall.
Kelly says it will be crucial that Roglič and others fully support the new arrival. Florian Lipowitz, who was third overall in this year’s Tour, is another who will need to commit.
“They definitely need to show to Remco that they are behind him,” he said.
Still, he’s encouraged by what has happened so far at Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe.
“They are changing staff, they are doing everything for Evenepoel. Their expectation is that he can win the Tour in the next couple of years.”
Perhaps Pogačar is right to be a little concerned.
Source URL: https://velo.outsideonline.com/road/road-racing/tour-de-france/remco-win-tour-right-conditions-sean-kelly/