Japan’s snow forecast favors modest accumulations in Hokkaido and a few higher Honshu mountains on Wednesday, October 28, accompanied by strong winds. The ski areas covered here are all closed for winter skiing, with winter openings and season preparations still ahead. This snowfall offers some early base building, but a quick warmup will challenge its preservation.
Snow develops in western Hokkaido late Tuesday, spreads overnight, and peaks Wednesday before tapering Thursday morning into early afternoon. Guidance shows strong agreement on the cooling and overall timing, although snowfall intensity varies enough to keep expectations modest. Kiroro leads with 8-12 cm, followed closely by Grand Hirafu, with useful coatings also expected around Furano, Rusutsu, and Tomamu. During Wednesday’s precipitation, snow levels generally fall from several hundred meters toward sea level, while mountain temperatures settle between -4°C and 0°C. Much of the snow will be dense and wind affected, with somewhat drier snow developing in colder inland locations. Westerly to northwesterly gusts around 80-120 km/h across exposed Hokkaido terrain can pack fresh snow and scour exposed slopes.
Wednesday’s cold surge also reaches Honshu, but moisture becomes much more selective farther south. Appi Kogen should receive 5-7 cm, while higher terrain at Okushiga Kogen picks up 3-5 cm. During precipitation, snow levels near Appi fluctuate around 400-900 meters, while central Honshu’s snow showers generally favor elevations above roughly 1,100-1,600 meters. Lower mountain areas can therefore see rain or a mix even as upper elevations whiten. Much of the lower terrain around Nagano and Niigata stays dry, limiting the regional base-building benefit. Wind remains consequential in Tohoku, with forecast gusts reaching around 120 km/h near Appi and 150 km/h at Zao. Confidence in the timing through Thursday is stronger than confidence in how much snow individual mountains collect.
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A dry warmup on Friday and into Saturday should bring settling and melting before another possible northern snowfall around the weekend and the start of next week. Mountain temperatures rebound above freezing across Hokkaido, leaving thinner accumulations vulnerable. There is broad support for renewed cooling afterward, but substantial spread in the accompanying moisture and snowfall. GFS depicts a much snowier episode in Hokkaido than the rest of the guidance, so a modest additional accumulation remains the more reasonable expectation for now. Signals farther into November are too inconsistent for useful storm detail.
Japan Snow Forecast Resort Totals (Tue Oct 27 – Thu Oct 29)
- Kiroro – 8-12 cm
- Niseko Grand Hirafu – 8-11 cm
- Furano – 6-10 cm
- Rusutsu – 6-9 cm
- Hoshino Resort Tomamu – 6-8 cm
- Appi Kogen – 5-7 cm
- Shiga Kogen Okushiga Kogen – 3-5 cm
- Sapporo Teine – 3-4 cm
- Zao Onsen – 1-2 cm
- Naeba – 1 cm
- Hakuba Happo-one – 1 cm
- Madarao Kogen – 0 cm
- Akakura Onsen – 0 cm
- Gala Yuzawa – 0 cm
- Nozawa Onsen – 0 cm