Every December, many Americans wonder the same thing: will it be a white Christmas? The map below from the National Weather Service answers the question of how likely it will be to have a white Christmas with data, showing the historic odds of having more than one inch of snow on the ground on December 25th across the United States. The map isn’t a forecast, but rather based on decades of weather records, and it gives a fascinating look at where a snowy Christmas morning is most likely.
Areas in white have a 91-100% of a white Christmas. The probability drops as it goes from lighter to darker blue before areas in gray have a 0-10% chance of snow on Christmas. The data come from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals, which include 30-year averages of temperature, precipitation, snowfall, and other climate indicators from nearly 15,000 weather stations.
Unsurprisingly, the chances climb the farther north and higher in elevation you go. The Rocky Mountains and Sierra Nevada stand out, marking the regions where snow on Christmas is almost a given. Northern states like Minnesota, Montana, and Maine also have strong odds, while most of the South and coastal areas can only dream of a white Christmas.
While the map shows the historical probability that at least 1 inch of snow will be observed on December 25, the actual conditions in any year may vary widely from these because the weather patterns present will determine the snow on the ground or snowfall on Christmas Day. These probabilities are useful as a guide only to show where snow on the ground is more likely. For a prediction of your actual weather on Christmas, check out your local forecast at Weather.gov.
Trending on SnowBrains
-
1Central Oregon Avalanche Center Lead Forecaster Gabe Coler Airlifted After Traumatic Whistler, BC, Mountain Biking Accident → -
2Palmer Snowfield Melts Out Again on Mt. Hood, OR → -
3What Are the Chances of a White Christmas Where You Live? → -
4What’s New at Whistler Blackcomb, BC This Season → -
5Condé Nast Readers’ Choice 2026: Top 5 Canadian Ski Resorts Ranked →
.sb-trending-widget {
background: #f8f8f8;
border-top: 2px solid #e0e0e0;
border-left: 4px solid #ea2e49;
border-radius: 0 4px 4px 0;
margin: 28px 0;
padding: 14px 14px 6px;
width: 100%;
box-sizing: border-box;
}
.sb-trending-header {
display: flex;
align-items: center;
gap: 8px;
margin-bottom: 12px;
padding-bottom: 10px;
border-bottom: 1px solid #e0e0e0;
}
.sb-trending-icon {
font-size: 18px;
line-height: 1;
flex-shrink: 0;
}
.sb-trending-label {
font-size: 15px;
font-weight: 700;
color: #1a1a1a;
line-height: 1.3;
text-transform: uppercase;
letter-spacing: 0.04em;
}
.sb-trending-list {
list-style: none;
margin: 0;
padding: 0;
}
.sb-trending-item {
border-bottom: 1px solid #e8e8e8;
padding: 9px 0;
border-radius: 3px;
transition: background 0.1s;
}
.sb-trending-item:last-child {
border-bottom: none;
padding-bottom: 4px;
}
.sb-trending-item:active {
background: #fef0f2;
}
.sb-trending-link {
display: flex;
align-items: center;
gap: 10px;
text-decoration: none;
color: inherit;
padding: 2px 4px;
}
.sb-trending-thumb {
flex-shrink: 0;
}
.sb-trending-thumb img {
display: block;
width: 80px;
height: 64px;
object-fit: cover;
border-radius: 3px;
}
.sb-trending-text {
display: flex;
align-items: center;
gap: 8px;
flex: 1;
min-width: 0;
}
.sb-trending-num {
font-size: 22px;
font-weight: 700;
color: #ea2e49;
line-height: 1;
min-width: 22px;
flex-shrink: 0;
}
.sb-trending-right {
flex: 1;
min-width: 0;
}
.sb-trending-title {
font-size: 14px;
font-weight: 500;
color: #1a1a1a;
line-height: 1.45;
text-align: left;
transition: color 0.15s;
display: inline;
}
.sb-trending-arrow {
font-size: 14px;
color: #ea2e49;
font-weight: 700;
white-space: nowrap;
display: inline;
}
.sb-trending-link:hover .sb-trending-title {
color: #ea2e49;
}
.sb-trending-link:active .sb-trending-title {
color: #ea2e49;
}
document.addEventListener(‘DOMContentLoaded’, function() {
var trendingLinks = document.querySelectorAll(‘.sb-trending-link’);
trendingLinks.forEach(function(link) {
link.addEventListener(‘click’, function(e) {
e.preventDefault(); // Prevent immediate navigation
var title = this.getAttribute(‘data-trending-title’);
var position = this.getAttribute(‘data-trending-position’);
var url = this.getAttribute(‘href’);
// Fire GA4 event
if (typeof gtag !== ‘undefined’) {
gtag(‘event’, ‘trending_widget_click’, {
‘event_category’: ‘engagement’,
‘event_label’: title,
‘trending_position’: position,
‘trending_item’: title
});
} else if (window.dataLayer) {
// Fallback for GTM dataLayer if gtag is not available
window.dataLayer.push({
‘event’: ‘trending_widget_click’,
‘event_category’: ‘engagement’,
‘event_label’: title,
‘trending_position’: position,
‘trending_item’: title
});
}
// Navigate after a brief delay to ensure event is sent
setTimeout(function() {
window.location.href = url;
}, 100);
});
});
});
There’s something undeniably magical about snow on Christmas. The quiet blanket of white, the crunch underfoot, and the way lights glow against it all feel like the season at its best. Even though most of the country won’t wake up to fresh snow, the idea still captures the imagination—because for many, a true Christmas just feels right when it’s white.
