The El Niño ski season outlook for 2026-27 strengthened Thursday, as the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) reported that El Niño is still building in the Pacific. NOAA forecasters now put the chance of a strong-to-very strong event above 83% through January-March 2027, and they say a historic event remains well within reach.
The October update follows our September report on the 2026-27 El Niño ski season, and it shows the event strengthened further over the past month. The details below come from the CPC’s latest ENSO Diagnostics Discussion.
Pacific Warming Behind the El Niño Ski Season Outlook
NOAA kept its El Niño Advisory in place after September sea surface temperatures in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific ran more than 4.0°C above average. Most of the Niño indices climbed over the past month, with Niño-3.4 reaching +2.1°C, Niño-3 reaching +3.0°C, and Niño-1+2 reaching +3.9°C.
The warmth extends well below the surface, where temperatures in the eastern Pacific stayed more than 10.0°C above average at depth. That reading reflects a deeper-than-normal thermocline, which helps feed surface heat.
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The atmosphere is moving in step with the ocean. Low-level westerly wind anomalies stretched from the western to the east-central equatorial Pacific, enhancing convection and rainfall that persisted from the central to the eastern Pacific, while Indonesia stayed drier than average, and Southern Oscillation indices were significantly negative.
Odds of a Record Event Since 1950
The CPC said chances remain high for an event stronger than any El Niño since 1950, defined as a three-month Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.5 °C or more. The agency put those odds at 54% for September-November, 83% for October-December and 70% for November-January.
The official outlook shows El Niño strengthening through the end of the year, then weakening through spring 2027. The forecast still favors El Niño through March-May, though neutral conditions become more likely by April-June.
What the Forecast Means for the El Niño Ski Season
The event is forecast to peak in late fall and early winter, which lines up with the opening weeks of the ski season. The CPC discussion does not forecast snowfall or temperatures for any ski state or mountain range, however, and forecasters note that a stronger event raises the chances of El Niño impacts without guaranteeing them.
Skiers who want regional detail should check the CPC’s seasonal outlooks, which carry the probabilities for temperature and precipitation anomalies. SnowBrains will cover the regional outlooks as they update.
Next NOAA Update: November 12
The CPC will release its next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion on November 12, 2026. SnowBrains will report any forecast changes.
