AccuWeather‘s El Niño snow forecast calls for an early start to the snow season across the Sierra Nevada, Great Basin, and central and southern Rockies in 2026-27. A potentially record-setting El Niño is expected to shape the winter, and the outlook points to a very different winter from last year.
“This has the potential to be the strongest El Niño on record,” AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok said. He said it is almost certain to surpass the events of 1982-83 and 1997-98.
What El Niño Means for Snow
El Niño typically strengthens the southern storm track, which favors more precipitation from California through the Gulf Coast. Farther north, warmer-than-average conditions are common, with fewer Arctic air intrusions.
The pattern can shift during the season. Other factors can temporarily change storm tracks and bring cold snaps to areas forecast to run warm.
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El Niño Snow Forecast for the Rockies and Great Basin
Forecasters expect a parade of storms, including several atmospheric rivers, to move in from the Pacific Ocean. California is the main target. The storm focus may start across Central and Northern California, then shift south toward the Los Angeles and San Diego areas as winter goes on.
“The southern storm track is generally stronger, more active and can produce flooding rain, landslides and heavy mountain snow for parts of the nation,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chad Merrill said. Individual storms could drop feet of snow in the mountains. Lower elevations face flooding, landslides, high winds and coastal erosion.
The snow season should also start early across the Great Basin and the central and southern Rockies. That would help ski resorts after a poor season last winter. By February, the Four Corners region is forecast to run cooler than average with above-average precipitation.
Salt Lake City measured only 3.7 inches of snow last winter, its least snowy season since records began in the 1880s. AccuWeather forecasts 50 to 65 inches this winter, slightly above the historical average.
Colorado River Basin Still Needs Several Wet Winters
The extra snow would be welcome in the Colorado River Basin. The Bureau of Reclamation said the basin recorded its lowest snowpack on record last winter. Combined water storage in Lake Powell and Lake Mead fell below levels seen before Lake Powell began filling in 1963. Several wet winters would be needed to refill the reservoirs.
El Niño Snow Forecast for the Northeast and Midwest
The Northwest is forecast to see below-average snow. Snowy periods may be interrupted by long dry stretches because the main Pacific storm track often focuses farther south. Shifts in the West Coast storm track could still send occasional storms into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies.
Plains, Midwest and East
The southern storm track will leave many parts of the Plains without snow early in the season. The pattern is expected to change in January and February, giving the Plains more chances for snow. The Southeast and southern Appalachians also have opportunities for snow.
Much of the Northeast and Midwest is forecast to receive less-than-average snow. The southern Appalachians and northern New England have a better chance of finishing near or above average. Boston recorded 62.8 inches last winter and is forecast to receive 15 to 30 inches.
Great Lakes Face a Slow Start
Lake-effect snow may be less frequent around the Great Lakes early in winter because of the lack of Arctic outbreaks. December is expected to start warm across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, with temperatures forecast to run above normal for the season.
El Niño Snow Forecast Leaves Room for a Big East Coast Storm
A below-average forecast does not rule out a big storm in the East. “It only takes one storm to flip the script, especially for the East Coast cities,” Pastelok said. Forecasters will watch late January and February most closely. They are also monitoring water temperatures in Baffin Bay, west of Greenland. Little sea ice there could open the door to bigger East Coast storms.
One Wild Card for California
Unusually warm Pacific water stretches from southeast of Hawaii toward Baja California and Southern California. The warmth could alter the path of Pacific storms. A similar setup in 2015-16 produced a drier California than a strong El Niño typically brings, with more precipitation farther north.
Meteorological winter begins December 1. Astronomical winter starts with the solstice at 3:50 p.m. ET on December 21.
