The popular YouTube channel Direct Weather has released its October forecast, and it’s abundantly clear that super El Niño has arrived. In fact, the charts showing forecast precipitation anomalies could have been plucked out of a meteorology textbook.
Super El Niño Has Arrived
That means the southern tier of the continental U.S. will likely see above-average precipitation, while the northern two-thirds of the country will be drier. The graphic below is largely what we would expect from a strengthening El Niño in October. We’re seeing persistent monsoonal moisture in the Southwest, with plenty of Gulf moisture in the southeast (Direct Weather notes that the Gulf is warmer than usual, adding a temperature and precipitation boost to the area). As we move into the winter months, we will hopefully see the jet strengthen and start to pull big systems in from the Pacific, which will start to benefit our beloved ski areas.
Meanwhile, the temperature forecast aligns with what we’ve been seeing for the past several months. Unfortunately for our Western resorts, we’re still likely to be stuck with above-average temperatures everywhere west of the Mississippi.
Of course, this forecast is a month out, and therefore subject to change. In fact, over the past couple of days, models have been trending towards a snowy scenario for the northern and central Rockies, which doesn’t quite align with the monthly forecast here. Of course, in weather forecasting, things change quickly. We’ll just have to keep an eye out and see what October brings.
Additionally, while early-season snow is healthy for mountain ecosystems and a great marketing boost for ski areas, it doesn’t necessarily indicate conditions for the rest of the season. Moreover, early-season snowpack can become dangerously faceted if dry weather follows. That can produce dangerous avalanche conditions when new snow begins to accumulate above it, wreaking havoc on our beloved powder descents. So be careful what you wish for!
