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SnowBrains Forecast: Sunday Snow Favors Canterbury as Fierce Wind Hits Ruapehu in New Zealand

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Snowfall forecast map
Credit: ECMWF

New Zealand’s snow forecast centers on a later Sunday storm, with the best snowfall prospects in Canterbury and the strongest wind on Ruapehu. Light snow is already underway at several South Island mountains, but high snow levels early in the main storm and severe wind will limit where the new snow pays off for skiers.

Light snow continues into Friday at Ōhau, Treble Cone, Mount Dobson and The Remarkables, while Mt. Hutt also picks up a modest refresh. Most South Island mountains then get a break on Saturday. Porters and Mount Dobson have ended their seasons, so their totals below describe mountain snowfall without lift access, as confirmed by their operations update and closure notice.

Compared with Tuesday’s outlook, the main burst has shifted roughly half a day later, bringing the heaviest South Island snow on Sunday morning and Ruapehu’s strongest phase on Sunday afternoon. All five models show the Sunday system, though they differ on amounts, particularly in Canterbury. Snow levels start near or above some resort bases, then fall well below them as temperatures drop to around −6°C at Mt. Hutt. Early snow will be dense; the colder part should bring more moderate snow, although gusts near 80 km/h could disturb exposed terrain. On Ruapehu, snow levels rise above the bases before falling sharply, while gusts above 150 km/h could disrupt lifts. Whakapapa is no longer among the likely snowfall leaders.

Snow tapers across the South Island by Sunday evening, while lighter showers and strong wind linger on Ruapehu through Tuesday. Timing and snowfall detail are most dependable through Tuesday; after that, the models show little support for another organized storm in early October. Treble Cone’s scheduled Sunday season finish also limits the chance to ski its fresh snow later in the week.

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NZ Snow Forecast Resort Totals (Fri Sep 25 – Tue Sep 29)

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