Here’s How Climate Change Could Reshape the Regions You Ski in, According to New Research

Researchers at the University of Wyoming completed a recent study examining the impacts of climate-change-driven warming on the future length of ski seasons in the Rocky Mountains and broader American West. Their models, which simulated future climate scenarios based on historic trends, predicted how 36 ski resorts across the Western United States will fare, snow condition-wise, between 2032 and 2066. What they found may come as somewhat of a surprise.

Evidence showed clearly that resorts in the Central and Southern Rockies of Colorado will have the highest levels of resilience over the coming decades. This comes in contrast to forecasts of the area undergoing higher levels of warming than other regions of the West.

The forecast’s nominal deterioration of conditions in Colorado is mainly due to one factor: elevation. The study found that, across the board, regardless of other factors such as latitude or precipitation, resorts at lower elevations will experience a greater loss in ski days than those at higher elevations. Because Colorado boasts several of the highest resorts in the country, ski areas there should expect to see relatively little change in average long-term ski conditions, compared to the losses seen in other regions of the country.

Resorts in Colorado should still see consistent temperatures compatible with natural snow and artificial snow production. This is because, even given projected warming of around 2°C (3.6°F), many high-elevation resorts should still remain below freezing through much of the core season. As such, some resorts in the state, such as Loveland Ski Area and Arapahoe Basin, may see almost no change in skiing at all over the coming decades. Unfortunately, resorts in other areas of the West may not be so lucky.

Utah, specifically, saw the greatest increase in risk of deteriorating snow conditions and shortening seasons in the Rockies. This is not only because many resorts in Utah sit at relatively low elevations given their latitude, but also due to the fact that the Wasatch Range is projected to see amplified warming — up to 2.5°C (4.5°F) at the highest warming level studied. Sundance, Deer Valley, and Park City saw the three largest increases in risk score of any resort in the Rockies, driven by a forecasted dramatic reduction in days with natural snowfall sufficient for skiing.

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Resorts in the Pacific Northwest and Sierra Nevada are also projected to be hit harder by forecasted warming than ski areas in Colorado. Despite the two coastal regions seeing the most snowfall and longest ski seasons on average, they are very susceptible to even subtle increases in temperature, given their generally lower elevations (with some California exceptions) and proximity to the ocean.

On average, the Cascades and Sierra Nevada will see about 25% more rain-on-snow days once the climate warms by 2°C (3.6°F). At that same warming level, natural ski days are projected to fall by roughly 30% in the Pacific Northwest and 27% in the Sierra Nevada. Colorado resorts, on the other hand, even given possibly higher rates of warming, will experience less than half as great an increase in rain-on-snow days — helping preserve snowpack throughout the year.

As for early-season skiing throughout the American West, Thanksgiving and Christmas periods will fare far differently going forward. Skiing on natural snow during Thanksgiving, perhaps predictably, is slated to decrease by about 25% across the board. However, late-December and early-January skiing will remain largely unchanged, as natural-snow ski days are expected to decrease by only about 6%. Notably, when factoring in an increase in artificial snow production, the availability of skiing during Christmas is projected to see no change at all — a finding that may come as a surprise after the early-season woes of last winter.

Despite varying forecasted outcomes throughout the American West, one general trend is clear: ski days per year and annual average snowfall will decrease because of climate change, no matter where you live. While the losses may vary widely depending on whether you ski in the Central Rockies of Colorado or the southern Cascades of Oregon, and while resorts will implement tactics to mitigate losses and preserve snow quantity and quality, some loss of skiing, if global warming continues, appears unfortunately inevitable no matter where you call home.

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