Mark Geragos says Erikand Lyle Menendez have a better chance of getting out of prison at their second parole hearing than they did the first time … for several reasons.

The criminal defense attorney and co-host of our popular “2 Angry Men” podcast joined us on “TMZ Live” Tuesday to discuss the parole board moving up the brothers’ hearings to March next year … and he says he’s “cautiously optimistic.”

Geragos says he believes the political climate hurt the brothers’ chances at parole in 2025 … but now that the firestorm has passed, he thinks the duo will have an easier time.

He points to their spotless disciplinary record while behind bars … arguing that if these two guys aren’t perfect examples of rehabilitated criminals, then who is?

We reported closely on Erik and Lyle’s legal drama a few years ago … which kicked off after a member of Menudo — Roy Rossello — backed up their claim that their father, José, was sexually abusive, which led them to kill him and their mother, Kitty.

Many members of their family stood behind them through the parole process … though the board ultimately turned them down.

Governor Gavin Newsom could still pardon them, and Geragos thinks he might … while our own Harvey Levin thinks there’s no chance. Check out “2 Angry Men” if you want to see more of their differing opinions.

BTW … Geragos also weighed in on District Attorney Nathan Hochman mulling over the death penalty in D4vd‘s case.

While Geragos is skeptical that capital punishment will actually be in play, he explains why this could be a strategic move from prosecutors.