Australia is Heading for Its Wettest El Niño Ever

After months of dire drought forecasts, Australia has bucked the meteorological community’s consensus on how its weather should behave. The continent is well on its way to the wettest El Niño year ever, somewhat improving the outlook heading into bushfire season. However, persistent elevated temperatures are likely to continue through summer. 

Australia began the year with widespread rain, while a wet La Niña phase was still influencing the Pacific. More surprising has been the persistence of rain, even as El Niño rapidly developed during austral autumn . By winter, El Niño had intensified dramatically, yet the rain continued. As reported by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC), national average rainfall for the year has already exceeded 400 millimeters, making 2026 the wettest El Niño year on record so far.

• Related: El Niño 2026-27 Ski Forecast August Update

The Primary Climatic Factors

El Niño is generally associated with drought in Australia. The trend is well established in the data, with a large sample of historical El Niño events producing below-average rainfall. For example, during 16 previous moderate-to-strong El Niño events, Australia’s winter rainfall averaged 32 percent below neutral years. Forecasts this year were especially dire because of the strong El Niño forecast – which has come to fruition – in combination with another climate indicator called the Indian Ocean Dipole. 

Interestingly, El Niño’s strongest impacts on Australian precipitation are typically during winter. Effects wane as we head into spring. By the time summer arrives, El Niño is a non-factor in continent-wide precipitation, statistically speaking. As the ABC reports, the nationwide rainfall deficit drops to about 20% in spring and just 2% in summer.

The Indian Ocean Dipole

A few months ago, forecasts expected a Positive IOD to develop. The positive phase means that warmer-than-average water pools in the western Indian Ocean, with cooler water in the eastern portion. During a Positive IOD, warmer-than-average water develops in the western Indian Ocean while cooler-than-average water develops near Indonesia. This shifts atmospheric convection westward and typically suppresses moisture and rainfall across Australia, particularly during winter and spring.

However, while a powerful El Niño has materialized, a Positive IOD phase has not. Instead, IOD has straddled the neutral phase thus far through Southern Hemisphere winter. While sea-surface temperature gradients between east and west (SSTs) are slowly creeping toward a Positive IOD, it’s unclear when it may actually develop. 

Separately from the IOD, background warmth in the Indian Ocean may be having an effect. SSTs across the central Indian Ocean are currently around 1–2°C above average and are expected to remain warm into spring. This reflects the astonishing warmth across the world’s oceans. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) notes that “global SSTs have been well above average, with July 2026 global SSTs 0.57 °C above the 1991–2020 average, making it the warmest July on record (since 1900).” So even if a Positive IOD develops, it’s possible that a higher baseline ocean temperature could still drive moisture into Australia. 

What Can We Expect Heading Forward?

The BOM’s latest models are showing a strong signal for a wet spring across Western Australia and the Northern Territory, consistent with expectations of tropical moisture pushing in from the Indian Ocean. Meanwhile, some parts of Victoria and Tasmania have an approximately 80 percent chance of below-median rainfall. Fortunately, the region is not drought-stressed going into spring. 

The even bigger story right now is the temperature outlook. El Niño typically favors warmer-than-average conditions across the southern two-thirds of Australia, and this year’s background conditions are nearly certain to amplify that effect. Some modeling indicates that southern Australia could experience mean temperatures approaching 3°C above pre-industrial levels during the coming months. To put that in perspective, it’s nearly a full 1°C above the previous record of 2.08°C in 2024.

For people, a warm spring is slightly more palatable than an infernal summer, but neither one bodes well for fire weather. Heavy rain can temporarily improve soil moisture and vegetation conditions, but prolonged heat and dry weather can rapidly dry out fine fuels, particularly grasses, leaves and other surface vegetation.

The Waning Australia Ski Season

Unfortunately, the wet weather has not resulted in a good ski season. Rather than precipitation, the culprit is unrelenting warmth in a ski region that already straddled the rain-snow line, even before climate change. Many ski resorts have already closed, and the others are on their way out, even though late August is prime season. 

Australia’s primary snowmakers are big cold-front-packing storms that come up from the south. This winter saw very little action from the Southern Ocean. Instead, precipitation was primarily from the west. Once upon a time, there may have been enough cold air to produce some snow from these systems, but that was far from the case this year. Snow levels often reached well above the summits of the continent’s highest mountains. 

With models signaling a hot spring and little-to-no snow in the short-to-medium range forecast (0-15 days), it’s difficult to imagine Australian skiing lasting more than a couple more weeks.

• Related: Selwyn Snow Resort, Australia, Closes Early After Rain Ends 2026 Season