Meteorologist Chris Tomer is one of the most accurate weather forecasters out there. Being an avid skier himself, Tomer’s forecasts are unique in the sense that they tailor specifically for skiers and snowboarders and focus heavily on snowfall predictions. Now, Tomer has released his Winter Forecast for the 2026-27 winter. Let’s break it down.
North and South America are currently experiencing a Super El Niño, meaning that sea surface temperatures in the Pacific are well above average, leading to increased precipitation across parts of the country, specifically in the West and Southwest this winter. The last El Niño this strong was in 1997 but this one will be significantly stronger. Already, the parts of the Andes in South America are experiencing the snowiest winter they’ve see in over a decade.
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Based on Tomer’s predictions:
- Lake Tahoe and Mammoth, California, will see significantly above average precipitation
- The Wasatch will have an average winter
- Southern Utah will see above average precipitation
- Southern Colorado and New Mexico will see above average precipitation
- Northern Rockies will experience slightly below average conditions
- The Northeast will see slightly above average precipitation
Those are solely Tomer’s best guesses, so it’s best to take them with a solid grain of salt. An important factor that Tomer also mentioned will be the temperatures this winter that determines where the rain/snowline falls. There is a very strong chance that the Super El Niño will bring with it higher than average temperatures, meaning that the rain/snowline will creep higher up and making it so that a lot of precipitation will fall as rain at ski areas instead of snow. If that is the case, a lot of ski areas will not have high season snowfall totals.
For now, all we can do and wait and see what Mother Nature has in store for America. One thing that is for certain, however, is that the U.S. will be experiencing the strongest El Niño it’s seen in 30 years and that will lead to some extreme weather regardless. We as skiers and snowboarders only hope that equates to a whole lot of powder skiing.
This article was updated for accuracy at 1:30 p.m. EST on August 25, 2026