Hot on the heels of its U.S. winter forecast, the 208-year-old Farmer’s Almanac has released its forecast for Canada. According to the Almanac’s proprietary weather formula, the world’s second-largest country can expect plenty of “snow, sleet, and surprise” this winter.
Overall, winter 2026-27 could see “frequent changes, sharp temperature swings, and an active storm track.” The forecast acknowledges El Niño as an important influence, highlighting frequent swings between mild and Arctic air and the potential for rapidly changing precipitation types as a result of this year’s very strong event.
Most of Canada’s ski resorts are located in the country’s west and east, with a few additional resorts scattered across the Great Lakes region. Therefore, the forecasts for B.C., Alberta, Ontario, and Quebec are going to be the most relevant for skiers.
Forecast Breakdown
For British Columbia, home to Canada’s most famous resorts, the Almanac paints a rather typical winter picture. Specifically, the coast is expected to be wet and windy, with rain and occasional thaws. Interior British Columbia is a different story, with frequent mountain snow and stormy periods. The Almanac projects that, like last season, the Coast Mountains, Columbia Mountains, and Rockies could see significant snowfall.
Moving east from British Columbia, Alberta could face periodic Arctic outbreaks, strong winds, and blizzard conditions, particularly in January and February. However, expect milder periods to interrupt the cold as well. Though many ski towns, like Banff, are located in Alberta, this forecast likely targets the Alberta plains, where Arctic winds descend from the north and, with no obstacles to temper them, produce extreme blizzard conditions.
The Farmer’s Almanac expects Ontario, the Great Lakes province, to experience frequent lake effect snow. However, it notes that southern Ontario could repeatedly bounce between snow, freezing rain, rain, and flash freezes. Lake effect snow, caused by cold polar air moving over a relatively warm body of water, is difficult to pin down. Snow can set up in extremely localized bands that are hard to predict hours away from a storm, let alone months.
Meanwhile, the outlook for Quebec is colder and snowier, with more consistently cold air available for storms. The Almanac points out that coastal storms, known as Nor’easters, could bring major snow and wind, particularly farther east and north.
What the Farmer’s Almanac Forecast Doesn’t Tell Us
The Farmer’s Almanac claims 80–85% regional accuracy, though this is their own assessment. However, skiers and riders hoping to glean helpful winter information may want to take this forecast with an extra grain of salt, even over other unreliable long-term forecasts.
One reason is that this forecast is written to be vague enough to satisfy the vast majority of winters in each province. Take, for example, the forecast for B.C.: “rainy, windy, brief thaws.” That’s not really a forecast; it just describes the climate of B.C. in winter. Large swaths of B.C. are considered temperate rainforest. Even an anomalously dry winter in B.C. could be much wetter than a wet winter in Colorado. The same principle applies for Alberta, Saskatchewan & Manitoba. It’s a given that they are going to see periods of Arctic cold. Arctic air descends across these plains each winter in a natural cycle. Even a warmer-than-average winter will see periods of bitter cold in this region, and vice versa.
What skiers and riders are actually looking for in a forecast is the projected anomaly. How much less or how much more precipitation will fall than normal? How much warmer or colder will temperatures be than normal?
Unfortunately, there is near-universal agreement that the dice are stacked against a good winter at the majority of Canadian ski resorts. El Niño is projected to push the storm track southward, leaving Canada drier and warmer than normal. Still, don’t put too much faith in any weather forecast more than a few days out. Long-term forecasts are unreliable, and anything could happen this winter.
- Related: We Put the 5 Major Winter Forecasts to the Test — Here’s What Actually Happened on the Mountain
