50 Years of Snowfall Data Reveal Where America Is Getting More and Less Snow

For skiers and snowboarders, winter often comes down to one question: Where is the snow?

An analysis of more than 50 years of snowfall data provides an interesting look at how that answer has changed across the United States. Climate Central analyzed snowfall records from 2,041 weather stations between 1970 and 2023, finding that nearly two-thirds of the locations now receive less snow than they did in the early 1970s.

But the story is not simply that America is getting less snow everywhere. In fact, 731 of the stations, or 36%, have recorded an increase in annual snowfall. The result is a complicated map of changing snowfall patterns, with some regions losing snow while others have found ways to produce more.

• Related: Climate Change Could Actually Lead to More Snow—But There’s a Catch

Where Is Snowfall Increasing?

According to the Climate Central analysis, some of the biggest snowfall increases have occurred around the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast and Northern Plains.

Several cities saw particularly large increases when comparing recent snowfall with conditions in the early 1970s:

• Mitchell, South Dakota: 77% increase
• Atlantic City, New Jersey: 71% increase
• New York City: 66% increase
• Newark, New Jersey: 51% increase
• Marquette, Michigan: 45% increase

The numbers may seem surprising, particularly for places such as Atlantic City and New York City. But warmer air can actually contribute to heavier snowfall in locations that remain cold enough for precipitation to fall as snow. Atmospheric moisture increases by roughly 4% for every 1°F of warming. If temperatures are still below freezing when a storm arrives, that additional moisture can produce more snow.

The problem is that there is a limit. Once temperatures rise above freezing, the extra moisture is more likely to fall as rain.

The Great Lakes Snow Machine

The Great Lakes are one of the clearest examples of how warming temperatures can produce complicated snowfall trends.

The lakes have experienced a long-term decline in ice cover, with basin-wide ice cover decreasing by about 25% since 1973. That means there is more open water available for cold air to move across during winter. When cold Canadian air crosses the relatively warm, open lakes, it picks up moisture before dumping heavy lake-effect snow downwind. That can create some truly massive snowfall totals.

During the 2025-26 winter, the National Weather Service office in Negaunee Township, Michigan, recorded 274.7 inches of snow, making it the second snowiest season in its records. For the snowbelt, warmer winters do not automatically mean less snow in the short term. As long as temperatures remain cold enough, more open water can actually help fuel lake effect snow. Climate Central expects lake effect snow to continue in a warming climate, although the season is projected to become shorter later this century.

Where Is Snow Disappearing?

The majority of weather stations in the study are seeing less snow than they did roughly 50 years ago.

Some of the largest declines were found in locations where winter temperatures are already relatively close to the freezing mark:

• Nashville, Tennessee: 59% decrease
• Knoxville, Tennessee: 52% decrease
• El Paso, Texas: 52% decrease
• Albuquerque and Santa Fe, New Mexico: 50% decrease
• Springfield, Missouri: 46% decrease

For these areas, even a modest increase in winter temperatures can make a major difference. Storms that once produced snow can now produce rain, sleet, or freezing rain instead. The same issue is affecting many parts of the Northeast, where a growing percentage of winter precipitation is falling as rain instead of snow.

• Related: Slippery Slopes: Climate Change Threatens the Future of Skiing in North America

What About the West?

The long-term trend is particularly important for the western United States because mountain snowpack plays a major role in the region’s water supply. Climate Central reports that the West has experienced declining snowpack, earlier snowmelt, and a shift toward more precipitation falling as rain instead of snow since the middle of the 20th century.

A 2018 study cited by Climate Central found that shrinking snowpack has reduced snow derived freshwater in the West by 15% to 30% since 1955. That matters far beyond skiing. Mountain snowpack acts like a giant seasonal reservoir, storing water through winter and releasing it as temperatures rise in spring and summer. Less snow and earlier melting can affect rivers, reservoirs, agriculture, ecosystems and communities. For ski areas, the implications are obvious. A shorter period of reliable natural snowfall can mean a shorter season and greater reliance on snowmaking.

So Will This Winter Be Snowy?

The 50-year snowfall record tells us about long-term trends, but it cannot predict exactly what will happen this winter. Seasonal forecasts provide a different piece of the puzzle. Climate Central’s analysis points to areas that have historically gained or lost snowfall, while short-term weather patterns determine where storms actually track during a particular winter.

• Related: OpenSnow Predicts Record “Super El Niño” Winter with Massive Southwest Powder Potential and High Temperature Risk

That distinction is important for skiers. A resort can have a long-term decline in snowfall and still have an epic winter. Likewise, a region with a long-term increase can experience a terrible snow year.

The bigger takeaway is that America’s snowfall map is changing.

Some areas are losing snow as winters warm, while others can temporarily benefit from increased atmospheric moisture and changing conditions such as reduced Great Lakes ice cover. For the ski industry, the western mountains remain particularly important because changes in snowpack affect both ski seasons and the water supplies that communities depend on. And while nobody knows exactly where the biggest powder days will happen this winter, more than five decades of snowfall data show that the places most likely to benefit from snow are not necessarily the same places that got the most snow 50 years ago.