Forecasters are gearing up for what could be a historic winter across North America, driven by a potential “super El Niño” event capable of reshaping storm tracks worldwide. In a long-range seasonal forecast published by OpenSnow, lead forecaster Alan Smith lays out a high-stakes outlook that hinges on a record-shattering ocean warming trend across the equatorial Pacific. If current model projections hold, the winter season will see a classic southern-tier split, favoring the American Southwest, California, Utah, and Southern Colorado with heavy precipitation while leaving the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, Canada, and the East Coast fighting warmer-than-average temperatures.
The meteorological engine behind this prediction is astonishingly powerful. Sea surface temperature data shows the Niño 3.4 index sitting at 1.8ºC above average, while the near-coastal Niño 1+2 region reached a staggering 3.3ºC anomaly in early August. Climate modeling from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) indicates the Niño 3.4 region could peak between 3.5ºC and 4.5ºC above normal by late fall, which would represent an unprecedented atmospheric event. NOAA has assigned a 75 to 80 percent probability of a “very strong” El Niño persisting from October through January. To build the winter forecast, OpenSnow relied heavily on four primary analog seasons with similar ocean basin profiles: 1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16, and 2023-24, alongside five weaker historical events weighted more lightly.
If you’re a skier or rider in the Southwest, OpenSnow’s forecast paints a seriously enticing picture once that subtropical jet stream locks in between January and March. New Mexico stands out as one of the primary winners in this setup, with resorts across the state favored to pull in well-above-average snowfall as storm tracks push south. California’s Central Sierra like Mammoth Mountain and China Peak is also pegged for above-normal totals after a potentially slow December start, with Southern California mountains historically overperforming during these setups. Over in Utah, the outlook heavily favors Park City, the Cottonwood Canyons, Snowbasin, and Southern Utah. In fact, Park City shows a particularly strong historical link to above-average snow during these events, thanks to how the subtropical jet lines up favorable winds across the Wasatch Back. Meanwhile, Southern and Eastern Colorado, including the San Juans, carry that same strong storm signal, while core Summit County spots, Vail, Aspen, Crested Butte, and Steamboat sit in a neutral zone with no clear precipitation trend.
Flip over to the northern half of North America, though, and it’s a much tougher story. The Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, and the Canadian Rockies are all projected to end up below normal on snow — driven mostly by persistent warmer-than-average temperatures rather than a total lack of moisture. Major BC destinations like Revelstoke and Kicking Horse lean drier, while interior resorts like Whitewater, Red Mountain, and Fernie face serious rain vulnerability at lower elevations. Across the rest of the continent, the East Coast, Upper Midwest, and Quebec are looking at below-average snow totals thanks to those same elevated temperatures, leaving coastal cities banking on an isolated Nor’easter or two to save their season. Overseas, Japan’s Hokkaido and Honshu regions are expected to run warmer than normal, while the European Alps face high snow lines and rain risks down low despite slightly above-average precipitation.
While those headline numbers for New Mexico and the Southwest sound promising, a closer look at the data reveals some major methodology flaws and asymmetric risks that could easily spoil the party. For starters, it is worth noting that while NOAA officially frames this as a 75 to 80 percent chance of a “very strong” El Niño, OpenSnow goes a step further by coining it a “super El Niño” event. But OpenSnow’s forecast relies heavily on just four primary historical analog years, and they dismiss 2015-16 — a super El Niño season that famously busted with below-average snowfall across California and New Mexico — as just one data point. On top of that, using 1982-83 and 1997-98 as baseline analogs ignores decades of global climate warming, effectively importing a colder historical atmosphere into a much warmer 2026 climate reality. The biggest wild card, however, is the fragile line between snow and rain. Almost every “below-normal” prediction in the outlook is driven by heat, and even the “above-normal” calls come with stern warnings about high snow levels. If winter temperatures end up running even a fraction of a degree warmer than models predict, that extra moisture won’t mean knee-deep powder days for New Mexico and the Southwest — it will mean high-elevation rain, turning what looks like a legendary winter into a massive headache for mid- and lower-elevation resorts.
