SnowBrains Forecast: Up to 1 Meter for South America through Monday

This South America snow forecast centers on a broad Andes storm that will favor the high resorts of central Chile and the Mendoza border through Monday. Valle Nevado leads the outlook, while meaningful but denser snow also reaches the southern Andes and only flurries reach Cerro Castor before Tuesday. Confidence is highest from Wednesday afternoon, August 12, through Monday night, August 17, when guidance agrees on the storm sequence despite a wide spread in amounts.

The disturbance already affecting Portillo and Valle Nevado continues into Wednesday night, followed by intermittent snow Thursday before the main surge arrives Friday night or early Saturday. Guidance converges on that general timing and on falling snow levels, but differs by several hours on the onset and on early intensity. Snow levels begin near 2,000-2,600 meters in central Chile, then drop toward 1,100-1,700 meters as colder air deepens. Early snow will be fairly dense, with SLRs around 7-12, improving to moderate or light snow at 12-17 later. Wind guidance generally supports manageable 20-40 km/h gusts in the central Andes, although exposed lifts could still pause. Portillo is currently running half its lifts, while El Colorado’s live operations report was unavailable, so confirm terrain before chasing.

From Friday through Monday, the most productive band targets the high central Andes, where resort totals reach 52-103 cm. The guidance converges on a prolonged, multi-wave event and a colder finish, but diverges substantially on intensity, with the wettest solutions roughly twice as snowy as the driest. Las Leñas sits in the next tier at 34-54 cm. Farther south, Nevados de Chillán and Corralco receive 15-43 cm, while the Bariloche and Chapelco sector gets only 4-15 cm. Snow levels there fluctuate around 800-2,000 meters, making lower-mountain snow wetter and less consistent. The models also diverge on southern wind impacts, with exposed gusts potentially reaching 50-70 km/h.

After Monday, forecast detail drops quickly as the guidance separates into distinct solutions. From Tuesday, August 18, through Thursday, August 20, several solutions bring Cerro Castor roughly 5-15 cm with snow levels near sea level, but one remains dry and projected gusts range from 60 to more than 100 km/h. That makes both snowfall and lift impacts speculative. Another system may reach the Andes from Sunday, August 23, through Thursday, August 27, with a broad potential of 30-80 cm in favored central terrain. The models diverge on its onset, intensity, snow levels and wind, so it is a signal to monitor rather than a totals commitment.

South America Snow Forecast Resort Totals (Wed Aug 12 – Mon Aug 17)

• Valle Nevado – 63-103 cm
• El Colorado – 54-89 cm
• Portillo – 53-86 cm
• La Parva – 52-85 cm
• Las Leñas – 34-54 cm
• Nevados de Chillán – 28-43 cm
• Corralco – 15-24 cm
• Cerro Catedral – 11-15 cm
• Chapelco – 4-6 cm
• Cerro Castor – 0 cm