Everyone Wants Paul Seixas and the Top End of Cycling’s Transfer Market Is Frozen

The 2026-27 transfer market has opened with more meh than mega-deals.

There’s no never-ending Remco Evenepoel soap opera. No last-minute Juan Ayuso contract drama playing out in front of the team bus. And no franchise reboot like Netcompany-Ineos buying out Oscar Onley.

Instead, we have Valentin Madouas signing for Cofidis.

So what’s holding up “silly season”? One source told Velo that part of the answer is Paul Seixas.

The 19-year-old French sensation has become the transfer market’s hinge point.

Only the peloton’s uber-rich superteams have the cash to play the Seixas sweepstakes, but they’re reluctant to spend it elsewhere until they know what cycling’s hottest young prospect is doing. Until Seixas decides his future, millions of euros are in a holding pattern.

Another reason things are quieter out of the official August 1 window is the sheer upheaval of last year’s market. There were so many big-dollar buyouts and transfers that even reached into coaches, sport directors and trainers that many teams are focusing more on consolidation than blockbuster moves.

That doesn’t mean that teams aren’t chasing deals. Reports Tuesday from Het Laatste Nieuws that linked Primož Roglič to possibly join Lotto for 2027 is proof things are moving.

Nearly 200 riders across the men’s and women’s WorldTours are still set to come off contract, with young talents like Paula Blasi steadily cranking up the volume.

There may not be another Remco-style soap opera this summer, unless Seixas fever explodes into the biggest deal the sport has ever seen.

Here’s where things stand.

Locking down talent

There simply isn’t much A-list talent available, and the teams that have it aren’t letting go easily.

After last year’s record-breaking transfer frenzy, the game has shifted gears from buying stars to keeping them.

UAE Emirates-XRG nailed down the biggest deal of the season last week by extending Isaac del Toro through 2031 after the Mexican’s breakout Tour de France. That quickly put an end to any speculation that he was heading out the UAE door.

So what does mean in the Seixas sweepstakes? UAE already has Peak Pogačar and Del Toro waiting in the wings. Adding Seixas to the mix would be too much for some fans, but never count out the peloton’s richest team of any bidding war.

The Emirati squad also penned Brandon McNulty through 2030 and key lieutenants Jhonatan Narváez and Nils Politt through 2029. The Pog Train is solid for as long as the Slovenian wants to keep rolling.

After a wild transfer campaign last year capped by the Evenepoel deal, Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe fought off rival offers to keep Jai Hindley through 2028. The Aussie and former Giro-winner proved invaluable as a solid lieutenant to Evenepoel during the Tour, and gives the team a plan B at other races.

Movistar locked down Spanish prodigy Iván Romeo through 2030, and Lotto Intermarché extended with budding ace Jarno Widar and Lars Craps. Other key extensions include budding French star Romain Grégoire with Groupama-FDJ through 2028 and Diego Ulissi with one more season with XDS Astana.

FDJ United-SUEZ has moved early to secure its future, extending with Demi Vollering, Célia Géry, Léa Curinier, and Elise Chabbey all through 2028.

The trend seems to be why go shopping when you’ve already got the crown jewels inside the team bus?

The market’s early movers

The transfer window officially opened August 1, but that’s mostly a formality these days.

The days of managers and agents sneaking off to Tour de France hotel bars on rest days to hammer out deals are long gone.

Today, the rumor mill never sleeps and negotiations run 365 days a year over endless WhatsApp chats.

And plenty of the deals dropping now were actually done weeks or months ago. Teams just sit on the news until they think it’ll make the biggest splash.

One team that isn’t waiting is Pinarello Q36.5 Pro Cycling.

Tom Pidcock’s squad has already landed Tour stage winner Mauro Schmid (Jayco-AlUla) and Czech sprinter Pavel Bittner (Picnic-PostNL). The ProTeam squad is making a serious push for the WorldTour when the next licensing cycle ends in 2028, and those two should bring both points and wins.

Alpecin-Premier Tech bolstered its classics arsenal with Iván García Cortina, Casper van Uden, and Madis Mihkels. The team’s two superstars in Mathieu van der Poel and Jasper Philipsen are both already signed through 2028. Kaden Groves is said to be leaving.

Another big move is Kate Courtney transitioning from mountain biking to road with her deal with FDJ United-Suez, where she will be teammates with Tour de France Femmes champ Vollering. She is expected to make her debut in team colors next month at the Tour of Britain.

Other notable confirmed early moves: Santiago Buitrago → NSN, Valentin Madouas → Cofidis, Lorenzo Milesi → Soudal Quick-Step, Mikel Landa → Euskaltel-Euskadi.

The names everyone is watching

The biggest moves are TBD.

In the women’s peloton, Blasi confirmed her status as the hottest prospect after her breakthrough Tour de France Femmes, with fifth overall after sacrificing her own chances to support Elisa Longo Borghini in her podium quest.

UAE has already confirmed that the Spaniard will leave at the end of the season, with Movistar among the teams linked to the 23-year-old. Blasi is expected to command one of the richest contracts in the women’s peloton, with speculation already pushing the figure toward seven figures.

Another big name on the move is Kasia Niewiadoma, who is expected to leave Canyon-SRAM after extending her streak of Tour de France Femmes podium finishes. Dan Benson has linked her to Lidl-Trek, but no official news yet.

On the men’s side, Felix Gall, Ben O’Connor, Arnaud De Lie, and Roglič are among the names generating the most noise, and plenty more deals are coming in the peloton’s annual game of musical chairs.

The Seixas sweepstakes

And then there’s Seixas.

The teenager has fueled cycling’s biggest transfer obsession since February, and two weeks after his fourth-place Tour debut, none of the big-money superteams have given up.

Wielerflits reported that Seixas signed a Letter of Intent last year with UAE, but sources told Velo no decisions would be made until after the Tour. Well, it’s been two weeks, and everything remains tightly under wraps.

Every big team with money has put out feelers. Visma-Lease a Bike confirmed during the Tour it’s interested. And with Jonas Vingegaard hitting his peak, the Dutch team is thinking about who carries its grand tour ambitions into the next decade.

Decathlon brass said they’re working on a deal to keep him on the team, and he still has a contract through 2027. In June, super agent Alex Carera told Velo a reported offer from Q36.5 for Seixas for $13 million per season was way off the mark.

Still, this level of speculation is unheard of for such a young rider, who turns 20 next month.

If Seixas moves, this summer’s meh could end with the biggest transfer bombshell the sport has ever seen.