Monday’s announcement that Tadej Pogačar will be racing the Vuelta a España this August for the first time in seven years surprised virtually nobody.

For one thing, there were the rumours that the UAE Team Emirates-XRG racer had been spotted doing recons of the Vuelta’s ultra-hard final week whilst at altitude camp in Granada and for another, the certainty that his 2026 race program was deliberately designed to have a much less demanding first half of the season.

What mattered the most, though, was that Pogačar’s form and, crucially, morale were seemingly much better in week 3 of the 2026 Tour de France than they were in 2025, making it ever more likely that psychologically speaking he would be motivated to race two Grand Tours in a single year. And as the team has pointed out on many occasions, at this point in his career where he’s conquered so much already, as important as race condition is, keeping Pogačar’s motivation high is where a large part of the battle to keep him keen and competitive is lost and won.

On top of that, a race start in his adopted European residence of Monaco and a route which – at least in the first half – suits him down to the ground all made completing his Grand Tour ‘set’ in 2026 an ideal option. You could also argue that from a historical perspective, winning all three Grand Tours in the same year that he already equalled the all-time record for victories in the Tour de France and very likely will do the same in the World Championships underlines that whatever he achieves in cycling in 2027 and beyond is Pogačar’s and Pogačar’s alone.

Yet is it really a done deal that Pogačar will win the Vuelta a España? By this point in his career and given his Grand Tour track record, anything but the Slovenian clinching the final victory in Granada on September 13 feels hard to conceive. However, it’s worth remembering Jonas Vingegaard’s seemingly certain victory in the 2025 Vuelta was a closer-run affair than he’d have liked after falling ill in the second week, and on the toughest climb of all, the Angliru, arch-rival João Almeida was able to beat the Dane.

Pogačar’s fans will point out, rightly, that the Slovenian has operated at a level above Vingegaard throughout the 2024 and 2025 Tours, their last two direct duels. And before Vingegaard crashed out of the 2026 race, the UAE Team Emirates-XRG leader was already all but out of reach on GC again. However, the Vuelta’s reputation for surprises and ambushes, not to mention last-minute plot twists, is just as justified as the Giro d’Italia’s. Pogačar’s race to the only Grand Tour title still missing in his palmares could well have plenty of obstacles – and here are five of them.

1. Andorra

There are plenty of reasons for thinking that Andorra on stage 4 of the Vuelta will likely be the crunch point of the whole race. One of the five hardest mountain stages of the 2026 race and the first major challenge of the race, nearly 3,000 metres of vertical climbing are packed into just over 100 kilometres. And it just so happens, too, that the final ascent of the Cornellá was the same one where Chris Froome, the last rider to do the Tour-Vuelta double, was able to distance all his rivals and make a healthy down payment on overall victory.

Just like the Tourmalet in the 2026 Tour’s stage 6, Andorra is where Pogačar could or should make his first major move towards victory. Delivering a knock-out blow as soon as the mountains come into view in a Grand Tour has been his winning strategy ever since Pogačar began his bounce-back from the 2023 Tour de France defeat. And on top of that, Andorra was where he won his first stage in the Vuelta (and any Grand Tour) back in 2019. More than enough reasons for Pogačar to try to bring things full circle here in 2026.

2. Primož Roglič

Even if Tadej Pogačar does claim the outright Vuelta victory in seven weeks time in Granada, there’s one title and record that won’t fall his way.

Together with Spanish climber Roberto Heras, Primož Roglič currently holds the joint record for Vuelta a España victories and could take a historic fifth title this year. But in terms of the Vuelta, Roglič is already in a league of his own.

No disrespect intended to Heras, but if stage wins, time in the race lead and his third place in the 2023 Vuelta a España are also taken into account, for all he has fewer top five finishes than Heras, the Slovenian veteran can easily be considered the greatest ever Vuelta rider in history.

At 36, he may be in the twilight years of his career, but that depth of experience already makes him a formidable rival for Pogačar. Other elements, like Roglič’s only Grand Tour of 2026 being the Vuelta, making him much fresher, could also come into play, particularly in the third week where Pogačar might – might – be feeling the length of the season in his legs.

The opposition doesn’t stop at Roglič, of course. Four-times podium finisher Enric Mas (Movistar), backed by 2016 Vuelta winner Nairo Quintana, could well be a factor, as could Giro runner-up Felix Gall (Decathlon CMA CGM), who is clearly yet to find an upper limit to his Grand Tour climbing. Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek) and Netcompany Ineos duo Carlos Rodríguez and Oscar Onley also all have the potential to make a GC bid. But in terms of race history, if Pogačar starts as the man to beat – and where doesn’t he? – it’s Roglič who’ll be riding down the Monaco start ramp on the evening of August 22 as the Vuelta’s initial reference point.

3. The ultra-tough second half

One of the questions we’ll never know is – would Pogačar have opted to race the Vuelta in 2026 if it had finished in the Canary Islands, as was originally planned for this year’s race? Either way, the organisation’s switching to a full-blown final ten days in the sierras of Andalucia as an alternative will represent a major challenge for Pogačar.

Four very varied major challenges are on offer here: the grinding, sunbaked ascent to the remote lunar landscapes of Calar Alto on stage 12 and its equally formidable penultimate, parched ascent of the Velefique, the brutally narrow, steep climb to La Pandera on stage 15, the devastatingly long rise through the southern sierras to Peñas Blancas on stage 19 and the knock-out grand finale at Collado del Alguacil on stage 20. Add in a major time trial at the beginning of the third week, and no wonder race director Javier Guillén describes the Vuelta 2026 as the hardest he’s ever overseen.

4. The extreme heat

Remember when it seemed like Tadej Pogačar’s Achilles heel could be high temperatures? His latest performances through the Pyrenees during the heat wave of the Tour’s first week are just the latest proof that’s not the case. But on the other hand, this time round, even the sun-parched roads of France could pale into comparison with the unbearably hot, humid weather likely to afflict the Vuelta in the eastern regions of Spain in the second week, and the drier but equally harsh temperatures in the third.

Only once since it began in 1935 has the Vuelta finished so far south, and this is the first time since it moved into its late summer slot. In a year where record-breaking hot summer temperatures and four heat waves have already hit southern Spain – last week it was in the low-to-mid forties – this could take a brutal toll on the peloton. And if Pogačar is able to handle the high temperatures much better than before, nobody will be immune to the consequences of racing through the hottest part of the day for three weeks, much of it through what is historically Spain’s warmest region.

5. The second Grand Tour

As one of the greatest racers of all time – we’ll get into that debate on another occasion – Tadej Pogačar’s sole venture into Grand Tour doubles back in 2024 hardly went badly. So why should 2026, with the Vuelta a España on paper much easier than the Tour, be any different than when the UAE leader conquered the Giro d’Italia and Tour in one fell swoop back in 2024.

Most likely it won’t be hugely different this time round. But at the same time, the final week of the Vuelta has so many challenges and the hardest of all comes just 24 hours before the grand finale. So it will be critical for Pogačar to graduate his effort as carefully as possible, and the same goes for his teammates.

Even if the World Championships and Il Lombardia, not to mention the Europeans on home soil, are all yet to come, no leader of the Vuelta can be 100% sure their strength will hold up on such a tough final major mountain stage at the end of their second Grand Tour. Maybe not even Pogačar.

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