Tadej Pogačar Has All but Won the Tour de France: Here’s Why the Brutal Final Week Still Matters

With Jonas Vingegaard out and Tadej Pogačar holding a vise grip on the yellow jersey, the Tour de France suddenly looks all but decided.

Not so fast. The finish line is in Paris and people seem to be forgetting that the hardest part of this Tour is still to come.

Pogačar might not be losing any sleep over the GC, but this Tour is overflowing with unfinished business.

The final week of any grand tour is the most brutal and the most unpredictable. This is when collapses happen and heroes can be made in one gigantic attack.

And the closing week of the Tour is stacked up with endless climbs, including doubleheader stages at Alpe d’Huez this weekend.

There’s still plenty to race for in week 3 at the 2026 Tour.

The podium fight has exploded wide open, jerseys still up for grabs, desperate teams are hunting for a Tour-saving stage win, and Pogačar is still chasing cycling history every time he pins on a race number.

Six days is still a long time in what’s looks to be the fastest Tour de France ever.

No one’s predicting that Pogačar is going to crack, but here’s what still matters before the Champs-Élysées.

1. How much history will Pogačar chase?

There is no stopping Pogačar. Everyone admits that now.

With Vingegaard gone, no one is even going to try to attack yellow. Barring a crash or illness, Pogačar is only six racing days away from a record-tying fifth Tour de France victory.

The question now is how greedy he wants to be over the final week.

Pogačar already shares fourth place on the all-time Tour stage win list with André Leducq on 25 victories. He’s only three behind Bernard Hinault, while Eddy Merckx’s 34 wins and Mark Cavendish’s all-time record are suddenly coming into view over the next few seasons.

If Pogačar feels like feasting, there are plenty of opportunities left.

Tuesday’s time trial should favor Remco Evenepoel, although nothing is guaranteed this deep into the Tour. Wednesday and Thursday could belong to the breakaways before two brutal summit finishes on Alpe d’Huez.

It’s hard to imagine Pogačar not wanting to add his name to the winner’s list on arguably the Tour’s most famous climb.

Sunday’s stage to Solaison offered a glimpse of another possibility. Rather than chasing another victory himself, Pogačar sacrificed his own chances to help pace Isaac del Toro.

The Mexican couldn’t quite finish it off, but he climbed onto the overall podium and pulled on the white jersey.

Pogačar can play kingmaker and help set up Del Toro for more stage wins and a spot on the podium in Paris. UAE boss Joxean Fernández Matxín told Velo the team will try to nurse Del Toro onto the podium if it’s possible without risking yellow.

The Pog Show ends in Paris. Since organizers added the Montmartre circuit last year, it’s his newest playground. And after Wout van Aert took the flowers last year, don’t be surprise to see Pogi explode one more time.

Our guess: Two more stage wins and his biggest yellow jersey gap ever in Paris.

2. The podium just blew wide open

Vingegaard’s exit created the most valuable vacancy in pro racing.

With first place already a wrap, the battle for second and third suddenly becomes the Tour’s biggest race.

Evenepoel inherited second place and should strengthen his advantage in Tuesday’s time trial, where he could easily take another minute or more on his climbing rivals. The Red Bull star is doubly motivated to prove all his haters wrong that he can’t climb deep in a grand tour. On Sunday, he proved the longer, steadier climbs suit the new-look Remco even better.

Evenepoel certainly has no lock on the podium, however, so the fight should be wonderfully chaotic. Everyone is scrambling for a chance of a career.

Del Toro, Florian Lipowitz, Paul Seixas and Juan Ayuso are all still dreaming of standing on the podium in Paris. Three of those four have hit top-3 in grand tours before. Seixas is the new kid in town with nothing to lose.

With five riders and two podium spots, there’s not room for everyone, so the race behind Pogačar is what’s going to light up the week.

Our guess: Evenepoel second, Seixas third.

3. The jersey battles aren’t finished yet

Yellow looks secure. Barring a crash or illness, King Pog will reign again in Paris.

The polka-dot jersey is also drifting firmly toward Pogačar, unless Valentin Paret-Peintre can produce some magic in the Alps.

Mads Pedersen also has a pretty solid grip on green. The Dane carries a slender 31-point advantage over Jasper Philipsen, but all he has to do is make the time cuts and challenge for the mid-stage bonus sprint, and the points jersey should be his.

The white jersey, however, could become one of the best battles of the final week.

Del Toro now wears white by 25 seconds over teenage sensation Seixas, with Ayuso still lurking at 1:30 back.

This is about bragging rights, and whoever packs the freshest legs in the final week will decide the outcome.

Then there’s the team classification, a competition many fans barely notice. Lidl-Trek still leads, but only by 3:19 over UAE Emirates-XRG. Both teams will be slotting riders into every break to chase this prestigious ranking.

It doesn’t mean much to anyone except the sponsors, who love to brag all year long they’re the best team in the Tour de France.

Our guess: Seixas wins white and UAE steals away the team GC.

4. Desperation week begins

This is when Tour de France tactics become wonderfully irrational. There’s no more control and no one’s thinking about saving the matches.

Everyone will start chasing the dream stage win. Tom Pidcock still wants one and EF Education-EasyPost’s Richard Carapaz has been an attacking machine.

Only nine teams have won a stage so far. That leaves 14 still desperate for the one victory that can justify an entire team budget for the next 12 months.

Red-Bull Bora-Hansgrohe joined the winners’ club Sunday after Evenepoel’s victory on Plateau de Solaison, so that means the pressure is only piling on everywhere else.

This week will be last chance saloon for the breakaways, and if the big, nearly 60-rider breakaway in stage 13 is any indication, Week 3 should be wild.

After Tuesday’s time trial, nearly every stage could end with a successful breakaway. A lot of that depends on what Pogačar wants to do, how much UAE wants to chase the team GC, and if Decathlon-CMA GGM has the firepower to try to set up Seixas for a chance at a stage win.

Nobody remembers who finished 12th in Paris, but everyone remembers who won on Alpe d’Huez.

Our guess: At least one more team gets a win, either Bahrain Victorious with Lenny Martinez, a gritty turn from Tudor Pro Cycling, or perhaps Netcompany-Ineos with a miracle ride from Kévin Vauquelin.

5. Making it to Paris still matters

Starting the Tour is every professional cyclist’s dream.

But by week 3, the climbs, the time cuts, and speed hurt a little more.

Yet everyone keeps slogging along. Well, not everyone. Tim Merlier already packed his bags and headed home after winning three stages.

The Tour is too big and too prestigious for everyone else to pull the plug early.

There’s plenty on the line for the 166 riders still in the race. A stage win or helping teammates chase GC. Others are simply honoring the race. Many know this might be their last chance to finish the world’s biggest bike race.

Even the sprinters, who may never see another realistic opportunity this year, will drag themselves over the Alps simply because reaching Paris still means something.

And yes, there’s also the small matter of the biggest party in professional cycling waiting in Paris. Nobody wants to miss that.

Pogačar may already own this Tour de France.

So the final week belongs to everyone else.