Vingegaard Thinks He Can Beat Pogačar in the Tour de France Mountains. Now It’s Time to Prove It.

Jonas Vingegaard has been talking tough so far at this Tour de France.

Now it’s time for his legs to do the talking.

Already 3:36 back on Tadej Pogačar, a weekend through the Vosges could make-or-break Vingegaard’s chances to reel in his rival in week 3 through the Alps.

Any further losses in a brutal mountain double-header on stages 14 and 15 will all but bury Vingegaard’s chances at a third yellow jersey.

Visma-Lease a Bike would be facing down a third straight Tour de France demolition by Pogačar. Worse still, it would throw Vingegaard into an ugly fight for the podium. Remco Evenepoel, Juan Ayuso, and Paul Seixas are stacked up less than one minute behind him.

But if Vingegaard makes any gains – even a dozen seconds – it will revive hope before the Tour reaches its high mountain crux in the Alps.

Make or break for Vingegaard in the Vosges

Vingegaard insisted after his damaging losses to Pogačar on stage 10 in the Massif Central that the terrain was against him.

The procession of short hills was Pogi’s territory, not his.

“I think in the end it was not too bad of a day. Shorter climbs like this are not what suits me the best, so I had to fight today,” Vingegaard said Tuesday in the Massif Central.

“To come away with a smaller loss like this is something I can be happy with.”

It’s a line Visma has been bullishly repeating since Day 1 – Vingegaard is a man for the high mountains.

The narrative was even rolled out after Vingegaard was blown back by Pogačar on the Tourmalet.

“I think my legs are getting better and I’m looking forward to the longer climbs,” Vingegaard added on Tuesday. “Hopefully we can have some good weeks.”

The good times have to start now.

Friday is the first of three stages through the Vosges as the Tour de France finally reaches its first block of consecutive mountain stages.

Vingegaard needs to move on stages 13, 14, and 15 through steep, sinuous climbs that he bullishly believes suit him best. Waiting any longer will be too late.

A redux of Visma-Lease a Bike’s most famous victories over Pogačar in Alps – think the Col du Granon in 2022 and Col de la Loze in 2023 – feels impossible this time around.

Matteo Jorgenson is sick, Wout van Aert is out, and UAE Emirates-XRG is playing the Tour like it’s a game of PlayStation.

Pogačar could end the Tour de France on Sunday

After a likely breakaway stage Friday, the GC mountain pain begins Saturday.

Stage 14 to Le Markstein loads four categorized climbs and around 3,800 meters of gain into just 155km. A longer, hillier stage and a summit finish on the brutal Plateau de Solaison arrives 24 hours later on stage 15.

The 11km, 9 percent Plateau de Solaison is one of the most severe summits of the race.

And if the name rings a bell, it’s because Pogačar’s teammate Isaac del Toro sealed his victory at the Tour Auvergne-Rhônes-Alpes on the same Plateau last month.

Visma should consider itself warned.

Pogačar said Thursday in his stage 12 press conference that he’s expecting fireworks this weekend.

He’ll probably be lighting them himself.

“Tomorrow [stage 13 on Friday] is a bit of a weird stage. It’s very long, so it’s going to be a hard day for us as a team. We will need to survive as well as possible,” Pogačar said.

“Saturday and Sunday are the bigger days for the GC,” he said. “Friday, we will see what happens. But it would be best for us to save some energy for then.”

Pogačar and UAE Emirates-XRG have been ominously quiet the past 48 hours. They might be planning to seal the Tour de France seven days early this weekend.

Meanwhile, Vingegaard needs to blow the race back open – or it might never happen.

Stages 13-15: The Tour de France returns to the mountains

Friday: Stage 13

Saturday: Stage 14

Sunday: Stage 15