Halfway Through the Tour de France, How Does Pogačar Compare Historically?

The riders crossed an important threshold on Wednesday, clicking over to the second half of the Tour de France. Eleven stages are done, ten stages now remain and the race will ramp up in intensity as the riders draw closer and closer to Paris.

A clear pattern has emerged by now: Tadej Pogačar, the defending champion, appears to be far ahead of the rest in terms of performance. Things could yet change—nothing is guaranteed at the Tour, after all—but the signs are ominous.

Pogačar first took yellow on stage 3 but then relinquished it the following day, with he and his UAE Emirates-XRG team happy to see it pass to Torstein Træen (Uno-X Mobility).

The world champion then recaptured it when he won stage 6 to Gavarnie-Gèdre and has held it ever since.

At this point in the race, 11 stages down, 10 to go, Pogačar is 3:36 ahead of Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) and 4:06 ahead of Remco Evenepoel (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe).

So how does that compare?

Vélo has crunched the numbers from the past 10 editions to see what this halfway point lead means.

The takeaway?

Going by the recent history of the race, Pogačar is in a very commanding position, and not just in relation to the gap he currently enjoys.

Let’s get into it.

Dissecting the data

First off, a disclaimer.

Tour routes vary every single year. The mountains can come early some years, later in others. So too time trials and team time trials.

Comparing individual races at an arbitrary point is therefore a rough guide: some editions may have been more difficult early on than others, some less so.

The 2026 race did feature a team time trial early on, enabling time gaps to be established on the opening day. It also had the first big summit finish on stage 6, plus other testing days such as Tuesday’s race to Le Lioran.

It is however back-loaded: the majority of the climbing comes in the final week, with the biggest differences likely to be made there.

Still, Pogačar has been already able to open a commanding advantage over Vingegaard and the rest.

How does that stat compare to previous years?

Largest midrace gap:

Pogačar’s advantage over the second-placed rider on stage 11 is the second-biggest of any rider in the period from 2016.

The largest at this point was his 5:18 lead over Rigoberto Uran (EF Education – Nippo) in 2021. Vingegaard was sitting third at that point, 5:32 back, and actually reduced that deficit in the second half of the race to 5:20. That put him second overall in the final standings.

The next largest mid-race advantage? The more modest 1:25 advantage enjoyed by Geraint Thomas in 2018.

Largest midrace gap:

1. 2021: Tadej Pogačar over Rigoberto Uran: 5:18
2. 2026: Tadej Pogačar over Jonas Vingegaard: 3:36
3. 2018: Geraint Thomas over Chris Froome: 1:25

Smallest midrace gap:

Vingegaard and Pogačar also feature when the smallest stage 11 advantage is calculated.

That was the Dane’s 17 second advantage over Pogačar in 2023.

Things were very tight at that point, but that close margin wasn’t a true representation of the physiological gap between them. The second half of the race would see Vingegaard accelerate and pull further and further ahead. That far stronger second half should give the Dane hope that he can yet distance his main rival and win overall.

Smallest midrace gap:

1. 2023: Jonas Vingegaard over Tadej Pogačar: 17 seconds
2. 2017: Chris Froome over Fabio Aru: 18 seconds
3. 2020: Primož Rogic over Egan Bernal: 21 seconds

Relationship between midrace gaps and final podium:

In the majority of ten Tours examined, the midrace standings had a very clear correlation with the final GC.

The leader after stage 11 went on to win 70 percent of the time.

The only exceptions were Julian Alaphilippe in 2019, Primož Roglič in 2020 and Ben Healy last year.

On every other occasion the rider who was in yellow at that point went on to lift the final trophy a week and a half later.

That puts Pogačar well on course to take a record-equaling fifth Tour win.

But what about the other riders who historically occupied the podium slots after stage 11?

Well, there isn’t a rock solid correlation between those in second and third at the halfway point and the final runners-up by the end of the Tour.

Indeed in only two out of the past 10 editions have seen each of the riders who were in the top three at the halfway point also been the same trio celebrating at the end of the race.

The first of those was Geraint Thomas, Chris Froome and Tom Dumoulin in 2018, with Dumoulin moving from third to second by Paris.

The second trio to remain in the podium positions were Pogačar, Vingegaard and Evenepoel in 2024.

And the rest? One, sometimes both, of the top three would slip back on all other occasions.

Vingegaard and Evenepoel should take nothing for granted.

 

Biggest final GC advantages:

Pogačar and Vingegaard’s duels have produced the biggest final winning margins of recent years.

The largest was Vingegaard’s vanquishing of his big rival in 2023: he was 7:29 in front in Paris.

As mentioned above, Vingegaard was just 17 seconds ahead at the halfway point.

However he hammered the entire field in the stage 16 time trial and then put minutes into Pogačar on the following stage to Courchevel.

He reached Paris a whopping 7:29 ahead, which is the largest margin between them in their five-Tour rivalry to date.

Pogačar replied the following year to pummel his rival by 6:17. Not quite as dominant, but he did take six stage wins in the race and also won the Giro and the worlds.

Largest gaps in final GC:

1. 2023: Jonas Vinegaard ahead of Tadej Pogačar: 7:29
2. 2024: Tadej Pogačar ahead of Jonas Vingegaard: 6:17
3. 2021: Tadej Pogačar ahead of Jonas Vingegaard: 5:20

 

Smallest final advantages:

Things were far closer several years ago. In 2017 Chris Froome was locked in a tight tussle with Romain Bardet and Rigoberto Uran. However he extended his advantage slightly in the stage 19 time trial, ending the Tour 54 seconds clear of Urán.

Three years after that, Pogačar’s last-gasp overhaul of Primož Roglič set him up for his first Tour win, and also his tightest.

That came a year after Egan Bernal won his Tour just over a minute ahead of his-then teammate Geraint Thomas.

Smallest winning margins:

1, 2017: Chris Froome ahead of Rigoberto Urán: 54 seconds
2, 2020: Tadej Pogačar ahead of Primož Roglič: 59 seconds
3, 2019: Egan Bernal ahead of Geraint Thomas: 1:11

Tour takeaways

As the stats show, Pogačar’s position atop the leaderboard bodes very for his chances of winning the race outright in Paris.

The margin of his advantage also looks promising, being the second-largest midrace gap out of those past 10 editions.

However Pogačar won’t start celebrating just yet.

There’s still a long way to go to Paris and plenty of big mountains to climb and descend.

He knows he will need to avoid injury, illness and the sort of dramatic collapses he endured in 2022 and 2023 to seal the deal and join the five-time Tour de France winners in the record books.

Tour de France GC after stage 11 and final overall standings:

2016

Stage 11:

1 Chris Froome (Team Sky)
2 Adam Yates (Orica-BikeExchange) at 28 secs
3 Dan Martin (Etixx-Quick Step) at 31 secs

Other:

6 Romain Bardet (Ag2r La Mondiale) at 56 secs
4 Nairo Quintana (Movistar Team) at 35 secs

Final GC:

1 Chris Froome (Team Sky)
2 Romain Bardet (Ag2r La Mondiale) at 4:05
3 Nairo Quintana (Movistar Team) at 4:21

 

2017

Stage 11:

1 Chris Froome (Team Sky)
2 Fabio Aru (Astana Pro Team) at 18 secs
3 Romain Bardet (Ag2r La Mondiale) at 51 secs

Other:

4 Rigoberto Uran (Cannondale-Drapac Pro Cycling Team) at 55 secs

Final GC:

1 Chris Froome 86:20:55
2 Rigoberto Uran, at 54 secs
3 Romain Bardet, at 2:20

2018

Stage 11:

1 Geraint Thomas (Team Sky)
2 Chris Froome (Team Sky) at 1:25
3 Tom Dumoulin (Team Sunweb) at 1:44

Final GC:

1 Geraint Thomas
2 Tom Dumoulin, at 1:51
3 Chris Froome, at 2:24

2019

Stage 11:

1 Julien Alaphilippe (Deceunick Quick-Step)
2 Geraint Thomas (Team Ineos) at 1:12
3 Egan Bernal (Team Ineos) at 1:16

Other:

4 Steven Kruijswijk (Team Jumbo-Visma) at 1:27

Final GC:

1 Egan Bernal
2 Geraint Thomas, at 1:11
3 Steven Kruijswijk, at 1:31

2020

Stage 11:

1 Primož Roglič (Team Jumbo-Visma)
2 Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers) at 21
3 Guillaume Martin (Cofidis) at 28

Other:

7 Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) at 44
11 Richie Porte (Trek-Segafredo) at 1:53

Final GC:

1 Tadej Pogačar
2 Primož Roglič, at 59 secs
3 Richie Porte, at 3:30

2021

Stage 11:

1 Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates)
2 Rigoberto Uran (EF Education – Nippo) at 5:18
3 Jonas Vingegaard (Team Jumbo-Visma) at 5:32

Other:

4 Richard Carapaz (Ineos Grenadiers) at 5:33

Final GC:

1 Tadej Pogačar
2 Jonas Vingegaard at 5:20
3 Richard Carapaz (Ineos Grenadiers) at 7:03

2022

Stage 11:

1 Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma)
2 Nairo Quintana (Team Arkéa Samsic) at 59 (later declassified)
2 Romain Bardet (Team DSM) at 1:10
3 Geraint Thomas (Ineos Grenadiers) at 1:38

Other:

6 Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) at 2:51

Final GC:

1 Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma)
2 Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) at 2:43
3 Geraint Thomas (Ineos Grenadiers) at 7:22

2023

Stage 11:

1 Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma)
2 Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) at 17
3 Jai Hindley (Bora-Hansgrohe) at 2:40

Other:

6 Adam Yates (UAE Team Emirates) at 4:39

Final GC:

1 Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma)
2 Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) at 7:29
3 Adam Yates (UAE Team Emirates) at 10:56

2024

Stage 11:

1 Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates)
2 Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step) at 1:06
3 Jonas Vingegaard (Team Visma-Lease a Bike) at 1:14

Final GC:

1 Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates)
2 Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) at 6:17
3 Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step) at 9:18

2025

Stage 11:

1 Ben Healy (EF Education-EasyPost)
2 Tadej Pogačar (UAE Emirates-XRG) at 29
3 Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step) at 1:29

Other:

4 Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) at 1:46
8 Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) at 3:34

Final GC:

1 Tadej Pogačar (UAE Emirates-XRG)
2 Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) at 4:24
3 Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) at 11:00