As the peloton rolls out for the second week of the Tour de France, the question on many riders’ and fans’ lips will be whether UAE Team Emirates-XRG can sustain their stranglehold over the peloton. As a team, they’re riding so well, and thanks to Tadej Pogačar’s early exploits in the Pyrenees, there seems to be very little pressure on their shoulders. But is that a good way to race Le Tour?

There are still two weeks to go, and if you happen to lose a rider or two to sickness or crashes, you quickly find yourself with a smaller squad and the remaining riders fatigued from their earlier efforts. There are often times when you could question the team management’s decisions when they’re out on the road, what are they doing this for, or why are they chasing this? But when Pogačar is as good as he is at the moment, you can maybe make those little mistakes because he can correct everything later on.

From my experience, in a three-week race, you have to be conservative in the first week, and in this Tour, the same applies to the second week, given the mountains awaiting them in the last few days of this year’s route. The third week is also when fatigue can really start to set in amongst the riders, especially so considering the hot conditions this year – you just don’t know the effect it’s going to have come the Alps. UAE Team Emirates-XRG’s domestiques are making efforts and controlling stages, riding at the front when they don’t really have to do it. But they’re by far the stronger team compared to Visma-Lease a Bike, and are riding so well.

Of course, their motives aren’t always completely clear. Take Sunday’s stage for example, UAE were keeping the breakaway on a really tight leash, and there were a lot of teams, and commentators too, for that matter, asking ‘What are you doing here, riding on the front? Are you going for the stage win or just controlling?’

Speaking from experience, when riders who know each other go and ask these kinds of questions, they’ll get an answer, but it’s never a straight one. UAE probably said they were going to ‘control’ on Sunday, but what does that really mean? Does it mean you just want to control the time limit for Pogačar’s GC rivals, or do you want to control the stage outcome?

Given the way the Slovenian is riding, I expect this next week of medium mountain stages to possess the best opportunities for the breakaway. I say this because, come next weekend and into the third week, UAE will control and target those high mountain days. For the breakaway, those sorts of stages will be difficult to dictate. In years gone by, they would have offered great chances when the GC contenders stayed in the bunch, and those who got up the road would typically do battle for the day’s honours. But, with the way UAE are riding, you can make a massive effort to get in the break, alongside some other top climbers, but they might only give you two minutes because Pogačar wants to ride for the win. I think we’re going to see a lot of that. So the opportunities lie on those transitional, medium-mountain stages for riders who want to win via the break.

Searing heat, Seixas’ steady start, and Netcompany-Ineos’ conundrum

Perhaps the only thing more relentless than UAE Team Emirates-XRG so far this Tour de France has been the high temperatures across Spain and France. It’s been a challenge for riders, and naturally, the race organisers too. What can they do, though? Suggestions to start stages early in the morning, to avoid the hottest part of the day, will almost certainly face pushback from broadcasters wanting the stages to finish in the evening when the viewership is highest.

It’s definitely becoming a problem, and answers aren’t clear to see, unless you move the Tour away from July, which again organisers wouldn’t want to do because July is Tour de France time, it’s holiday season around Europe, and what makes the race so great is the spectators lining the roads day after day, mountains covered with spectators.

Unfortunately, it feels like one of those issues where a rider has to get sunstroke and subsequently crash before change or a solution is found with any urgency.

While riding in hot weather isn’t necessarily anything new, I’ve rarely seen such a prolonged period at the Tour. I remember the 1989 and 1990 Tours, we were riding near Marseille with the temperature at 40°C and essentially just had bidons of water to keep us cool, ice socks hadn’t made it into the peloton by this point, and I suspect several riders lost time because of the heat. We didn’t have the support from neutral service and team cars as they do now, with fridges full of bottles on the back of a motorbike, so it was just a case of constantly pouring water over our heads.

However, you only got that for one or two days before the weather broke; the spells of hot conditions have certainly got longer over the last couple of years. So teams have to do more to keep riders cool, with more personnel, bottles, and cooling equipment to ensure their guys don’t suffer or lose out due to overheating.

In terms of riders and teams that were coming in with expectations, Paul Seixas was one of the biggest talking points coming into this Tour, and I think he’s performing well so far. The team were obviously hoping for him to be able to keep pace with Pogačar and Vingegaard, but even though he’s slightly off that level at the moment, the third and final week is where his Tour will be determined. He may still struggle to keep up with the top two, but I can see him contending for the podium, and he’s very much a part of that conversation at the first rest day.

Meanwhile, Netcompany-Ineos, a team with Tour de France pedigree, have had a complex race so far. Their first objective of the team time trial, a stage they were favourites for alongside winners Visma-Lease a Bike, proved eight seconds out of reach, and I feel that had it turned out differently, it might have calmed the ship and changed how they raced the opening week. Obviously, losing Oscar Onley, and with him their GC hopes, was a big blow, so they’ve had to adapt their team, but neither Dorian Godon nor Kévin Vauquelin look to be at their best level to compete in the sprints or breakaways at the minute.

Former Tour winner Egan Bernal is the best-placed Netcompany-Ineos rider in the overall standings, currently in 10th spot, but I’m afraid he’s going to struggle to stay there as the race progresses, especially considering he’s already tackled the Giro this year, too.

Sunday’s stage also saw them riding on the front for Filippo Ganna, something I was quite surprised by in the commentary booth. Yes, he managed to grab fifth in the sprint for the minor placings, but had it been for the win, I don’t think he’d have ranked as highly.

But such is the case at the Tour, and this doesn’t just apply to Netcompany-Ineos. Teams will try everything and anything to do well there, whether it be their solitary moment of success or their seventh stage win, even if you find yourself questioning their tactics.