Australia’s snow forecast favors a windy, coverage-building cycle from early Saturday through Wednesday morning, with resort totals spanning 6-41 cm. Sunday looks like the snowiest period, but the opening phase will be dense and many lift systems are still serving limited terrain. Lift-served skiing is available at every resort except Mount Mawson, where no current tow opening has been announced, and strong alpine winds could reduce operations during the storm.
Friday stays mainly dry at ski elevations before snow spreads into Victoria and New South Wales early Saturday, then reaches Tasmania later Saturday into Sunday. The models converge on timing: the broad peak lands Sunday as snow levels start near 1,500-1,800 meters then fall toward 800-1,200 meters. They also converge on disruptive alpine wind, generally 40-70 km/h with gusts of 80-120 km/h and locally higher values in Tasmania, so exposed lifts may cycle on hold. Intensity placement diverges more, especially across New South Wales and Tasmania. Early SLRs of 4-8 point to very dense or dense snow, improving toward 8-12 on colder upper terrain Sunday.
Snow turns showery Monday and winds down Tuesday, taking the full-cycle outlook to 27-41 cm at Falls Creek and 24-37 cm at Charlotte Pass before the final light pulses end Wednesday morning. Guidance agrees on the broad duration but diverges on how much Monday and Tuesday add, particularly at Mount Mawson, Charlotte Pass, and Thredbo. While snow is falling, levels rebound mostly into 1,400-1,700 meters, SLRs settle around 4-9, and 40-70 km/h ridge winds keep upper lifts vulnerable. Confidence is highest from early Saturday, July 11, through Wednesday morning, July 15. For many resorts this is more useful as a base-building refresh than a guarantee of deep coverage.
Wednesday afternoon through Saturday is likely dry, calmer, and progressively milder. Models converge on the dry break and on temperatures spending more time above 0 C, so new snow will consolidate quickly and afternoon surfaces should become softer or damp, especially lower down. Wind is much less troublesome Thursday and Friday, then may increase again during the weekend. By Sunday the guidance diverges: the GFS alone suggests a weak return of light snow while the others remain dry. That leaves little to no new snow as the conservative expectation beyond Saturday, with no reliable second storm to chase yet.
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Australia Snow Forecast Resort Totals (Sat Jul 11 – Wed Jul 15)
- Falls Creek – 27-41 cm
- Charlotte Pass – 24-37 cm
- Mount Hotham – 21-32 cm
- Mount Buller – 20-30 cm
- Mount Mawson – 18-29 cm
- Thredbo – 18-28 cm
- Perisher – 16-25 cm
- Selwyn Snowfields – 15-23 cm
- Ben Lomond – 10-15 cm
- Mount Baw Baw – 6-9 cm