In a World Cup year, the Ballon d’Or is never decided solely by what happens with the clubs. The history of the award shows that the World Cup usually ends up tipping the balance definitively. It doesn’t matter if a player has had an extraordinary season between August and May: when the major international tournament arrives, everything is up for grabs again. And this edition is proving to be no exception. With the decisive matches still to come, some performances have already completely changed the race for the award. 

Messi rises 966%

The most striking case is that of Leo Messi. Before the World Cup, he had only a 0.97% chance of winning the Ballon d’Or. Now he has reached 10.34%. In other words, he has multiplied his chances by more than ten and boosted his candidacy by 966%. The Argentine has gone from being an almost purely symbolic name to becoming the fifth favorite for the award. Ahead of him are only Kane, Mbappé, Dembélé and Olise. If Argentina keeps progressing, his candidacy will too. The ninth Ballon d’Or, which seemed impossible a month ago, is back on the table according to Betfair’s data.

Kane holds on, Mbappé presses

Harry Kane remains the main favorite, with a 22.27% chance. He was already leading before the tournament, when he had 20.11%, and the World Cup has allowed him to slightly strengthen his position. The real threat is Mbappé. The Frenchman has gone from 4.36% to 19.30%, a 343% increase that places him as the second favorite. His seven goals in the World Cup and France’s strong run have erased some of the doubts about his season with Real Madrid. He is now only three percentage points behind Kane. Between them, they already account for more than 41% of the chances of winning the Ballon d’Or.

Bellingham and Haaland run riot

The World Cup has also breathed new life into other candidacies. Jude Bellingham, who came in far from the favorites after a disappointing season with Real Madrid, has gone from 0.64% to 4.26%. His growth is 566% and he now appears in the top 10. Haaland has also taken a huge leap. The Norway striker has raised his chances from 1.92% to 6.59%, an increase of 243%, driven by his seven goals and his national team’s surprising run to the quarterfinals. Michael Olise is also on the rise, going from 8.17% to 12.06%, while Cristiano Ronaldo climbs from 0.80% to 2.79% and Vinicius improves from 0.97% to 2.13%.

The World Cup also sinks candidacies

The other side is found in those who arrived carrying significant weight from their club season and have lost ground during the World Cup. Declan Rice is behind the biggest drop: from 10.89% to 3.45%, a 68% plunge. Also falling back are Kvaratskhelia, who drops from 7.26% to 4.83%; Raphinha, from 1.28% to 0.89%; Dembélé, from 14.52% to 12.06%; and Julián Álvarez, from 1.28% to 1.08%. PSG is the best example of the change in circumstances. Before the World Cup, it had five players in the top 10: Dembélé, Olise, Kvaratskhelia, Vitinha and Doué. Now only those who are delivering in the tournament are still holding strong.