Australian ski season doom-posting has become something of a mainstream media tradition. Any time Australian resorts have a slow start to the season, webcam screenshots of brown slopes in the Snowy Mountains circulate rapidly, followed by the familiar superlatives: “worst season in XX years,” “no snow in sight,” or some variation of seasonal collapse. We are even seeing international trolling from Japan in the form of social media posts of grassy slopes from Myoko Tourism with tongue-in-cheek commentary. For Australian skiers and snowboarders, the narrative is familiar. We have been here before — multiple times — and while nobody is claiming it is a strong start, it is still far too early in the season to draw conclusions.
If you want data to counter the hype cycle, SnowBrains has gone back through the Snowy Hydro records and analysed historical snow depth data from Spencer’s Creek, the benchmark site for Australian alpine snowpack. Continuous measurements have been taken there since the 1950s, making it the most reliable long-term dataset for conditions in the Snowy Mountains.
We identified 15 seasons since records began that had similarly slow starts. For this analysis, a slow start was defined as any season recording less than 20 cm (8 inches) of snow at Spencer’s Creek in either week four or week five of the season. With June 1 marking the start of winter in Australia, week four corresponds to June 22–28 and week five to June 29–July 5. We used 20 cm as the threshold, given that the current season has already recorded measurable accumulation. On June 10, Spencer’s Creek measured 14.4 cm (6 inches). Comparing it to the only year with zero snow for the first four weeks like some media outlets have done is not just misleading but plain wrong. Instead, using sub-20 cm in a comparable time window as we are in right now is the only reasonable comparison.
Historical Slow Starts (Spencer’s Creek):
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- 1957 — 0 cm in week 5 (no snow until week 6)
- 1967 — 0 cm in week 5 (delayed start, then 18 cm)
- 1959 — 11.3 cm in week 5
- 1979 — 0 cm in week 4
- 1980 — 13.1 cm in week 4
- 1982 — 20 cm in week 5
- 1984 — 17 cm in week 4
- 1989 — 14 cm in week 4, dropping to 5 cm in week 5
- 1991 — 0 cm in week 4
- 1997 — 15.2 cm in week 5
- 2001 — 15.6 cm in week 5
- 2015 — 1 cm in week 5
- 2017 — 4 cm in week 5
These seasons represent the 15 weakest early-season snow conditions in the dataset. However, despite early concerns, these seasons did not remain weak throughout winter. Across all 15 slow-start years, the average peak snow depth measured 179.2 cm and the median peak snow depth during those 15 seasons measured 174.2 cm. This compares to a historical average across all seasons since 1954 of 195.9 cm average peak depth and 185.4 cm median peak depth.
While the average and median for those 15 seasons is about 6-8.5% below the all time average and median, it is important to point out that in 1991, the snow depth reached a peak of 284.7 cm (112 inches). Unfortunately, on the flip side, in 1982 the snow depth maxed out at 91 cm (36 inches). Importantly, across the dataset, slow-start seasons consistently recover to produce full snow seasons, with only modest reductions in peak depth compared to long-term averages.
It is also important to note that only 15 of the past 72 seasons fall into this slow-start category — meaning the vast majority of years begin with stronger early-season snowpack. With Australian school holidays taking place in late June and early July, it is naturally very frustrating for those who had hoped for a nice ski holiday at home during that period. Whether ski resorts in Australia can do more to ensure sufficient snow cover for the early season is certainly a topic that needs to be evaluated by the industry.
Ultimately, the historical record from Spencer’s Creek is consistent: a slow June does not define the Australian ski season. Snow will come. It always does. The real question is not whether the season has started strongly — but how it will finish.
