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This should be the Tour de France that finally pushes Tadej Pogačar to the limit.
On paper, this is the deepest GC field of the Pogačar era.
Jonas Vingegaard is healthy again after his morale-boosting Giro d’Italia win. Remco Evenepoel finally has the super team he wanted. Paul Seixas has emerged as cycling’s next great hope.
Then Pogačar went to Switzerland and crushed everyone.
Richard Carapaz, the Olympic champion and Giro winner who finished second at the Tour de Suisse, sounded almost resigned after watching Pogačar dismantle the race.
“Right now, it’s impossible to make Pogačar suffer. He’s on top of everyone. What he did in Switzerland was incredible,” Carapaz said on the Escapa podcast.
“We can’t say the race is over because it’s still a race and a lot can happen. A crash or an illness can change everything.”
The peloton’s finally produced the deepest group of top-line GC rivals Pogačar’s ever faced.
Unfortunately for them, they might also be running into the best version of Pogačar we’ve ever seen.
Can Vingegaard, Evenepoel, or Seixas Finally Beat Pogačar?
None of the favorites are heading to Barcelona waving a white flag.
Vingegaard and the Killer Bees believe this is their best chance to beat Pogačar since 2023. Red Bull is bullish on Evenepoel and Florian Lipowitz. France will ride every pedal stroke with Seixas.
There will be a few others, and Matt White expects some wild fireworks.
“I don’t think he’s going to crush everyone. There are going to be a lot who he does crush,” the Movistar sport director told Velo.
“Jonas Vingegaard showed at the Giro that he was in very good shape, and I expect him to be even better at the Tour. I think we’re going to get a battle royale between those two.”
“The Tour never ceases to surprise. It’s always a good one, and I think we’re in for another cracker.”
Pogačar’s Tour de Suisse Warning Shot
The 2026 Tour finally has the field to push Pogačar, but what happened at Switzerland suggests it still might not be enough.
“I don’t know if ‘disillusionment’ is the right word, but that’s the first word that comes to mind,” Sam Oomen said after a drubbing at the Tour de Suisse.
“On day one, I heard it a lot,” Oomen on In Het Peloton. “Many riders were saying to each other, ‘I’ve never seen anything like this before.’”
This isn’t the same Pogačar who lost the Tour in 2022 and 2023.
Since then, he’s added two rainbow jerseys, two more Tours, the Giro d’Italia, and nearly Paris-Roubaix.
If anything, the “Pogi gap” is widening, not shrinking.
Pogačar even said so.
“I would say I am stronger than in 2025,” Pogačar told L’Equipe. “During the past training camp in the Sierra Nevada, there is a climb where I tested myself last year. I remember thinking, ‘Wow, I don’t think I’ll ever be able to go faster.’”
When Will Pogačar Attack at the 2026 Tour de France?
Pogačar arrives with one of the strongest teams; Brandon McNulty is back and Isaac del Toro is making his Tour debut.
The opening week also looks perfect for an early raid on yellow.
And everyone knows Pogi likes to move early and often.
While everyone else is talking about Alpe d’Huez in week 3, ex-pro Michael Rasmussen keeps looking at stage 6 in the Pyrénées.
“There’s a real risk the race is decided here,” Rasmussen told Viaplay, pointing to the HC Tourmalet and the summit finish at Gavarnie. “If Pogačar is as strong as I think he is, and UAE is as strong as I think it is, they can start the move five kilometers from the top of the Tourmalet.
“He could reach the summit with a one-minute lead over Vingegaard. The difference could grow to two minutes before the finish.”
That’s how quickly this Tour could tilt in Pogačar’s favor.
The Tour wouldn’t be over. But a two-minute cushion before the first week is done would make it awfully hard for anyone else to win.
Chasing the record fifth yellow jersey
If the stakes of any Tour weren’t already enough.
At 27, he arrives in Barcelona chasing a fifth Tour de France title, one that would place him alongside Jacques Anquetil, Eddy Merckx, Bernard Hinault and Miguel Indurain.
As much as Pogačar says he’s not racing for the record book, the five-win club is one he wants.
The rest of the GC contenders just have to hope they’re still close enough for the Alps to matter.
“Where and when the race is decided, God only knows,” White said. “With the way cycling is raced now, it could come any more between stage 2 and stage 20.
“It’s a very hard back end of the race, but knowing the way these guys race at the moment, I think whenever there’s an opportunity, they’ll take it.”
This Tour is Peak Pogačar.
Barcelona is still more than a week away.
The peloton already knows what’s coming.
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