Minnesota Timberwolves president of basketball operations Tim Connelly has made some of the NBA’s most interesting trades.
He gave up a ton for Rudy Gobert in a deal that initially seemed like an overpayment but ultimately set up the Timberwolves for back-to-back conference finals. He then moved Karl-Anthony Towns after one of those conference finals appearances. And on Thursday, he moved away from the Timberwolves’ bet on size, moving Naz Reid as part of a blockbuster trade package for LaMelo Ball and giving Anthony Edwards an All-Star running mate in the backcourt.
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This trade is fascinating from all angles. The Athletic’s Eric Koreen, Law Murray and Eric Nehm got together to discuss the ins and outs of the deal.
Which side of this trade do you find more interesting?
Koreen: In NBA circles, you hear a lot of people talk about the concept of “selling high” — hi, Daryl Morey! However, you very rarely see it done with a player of Ball’s magnitude.
Charlotte finally got something going last year. While there were many reasons for that, including great seasons from rookie Kon Knueppel and third-year wing Brandon Miller, it was Ball who was the biggest driver of the offense. The Charlotte Hornets were 12.6 points per 100 possessions better on that end with Ball on the floor, representing the biggest gap on the team. When he was on the floor, the Hornets had the equivalent of the best attack in the league; without him, they were the equivalent of the 26th-ranked offense.
But Ball has had injury problems, looked unserious earlier in his career and had off-court issues. I find the Hornets moving him at this stage fascinating.
Murray: I’m more interested in the team that has actual expectations. The Timberwolves are relevant in their conference, unlike the Hornets. They have made some loud trades since Anthony Edwards joined the team: acquiring Rudy Gobert, trading Karl-Anthony Towns, then trading Julius Randle. Now, they are acquiring LaMelo Ball, the player who won Rookie of the Year over Edwards and became an All-Star before Edwards. It’s really about to be Leo SZN in Minnesota, one of only two teams to win a playoff series in the West three straight seasons.
Nehm: As someone who just lived through eight seasons of “Will they? Won’t they?” extension and trade drama with Giannis Antetokounmpo in Milwaukee, I was fully prepared for that same storyline to unfold in Minnesota with Edwards. Our guy Jon Krawczynski even wrote about it on Wednesday.
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In Milwaukee, when that noise was starting to bubble up because Antetokounmpo was getting close to an extension window, Bucks GM Jon Horst made a trade to show him how serious they were about winning. First, he traded for Jrue Holiday. Then, he traded for Damian Lillard. Both were veteran point guards who were older than Antetokounmpo.
The crazy thing about Ball, however, is that he has already been in the league for six seasons, yet he’ll still only be just 25 years old next season. The same is true of Edwards. If the pairing works and they play well off each other, this pairing could age together and be Minnesota’s duo moving forward through multiple extensions.
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How would you rate Ball’s fit next to Anthony Edwards?
Koreen: I love the on-court idea of it. While I’m glad to have the ball in Edwards’ hands at the end of games, I think the lack of top-shelf perimeter help throughout a game wore him down this season. It was too much of a burden. Edwards’ offensive package is excellent, but getting him some easier looks will do him good.
Meanwhile, putting Ball next to Edwards — and more importantly, Jaden McDaniels and Rudy Gobert — should allow him to use his length to be more disruptive defensively, with the Wolves having enough of a foundation to make up for some gambles. I have long-term questions about the trade, but I like the immediate fit.
Murray: Edwards has had to operate like a primary playmaker in recent seasons, even though he’s nominally a shooting guard. Not only that, but Randle’s presence meant he soaked up the touches Edwards wasn’t getting. The point guard situation in Minnesota was already looking bleak, and that became the case once starting “point guard” Donte DiVincenzo went down with a torn Achilles. I look at Ball’s addition the way that D’Angelo Russell was used in Minnesota with Chris Finch. Ball is going to be the primary playmaker. But this isn’t 20-year-old Edwards teaming up with Ball the way Russell was. This is the best shooting guard in the league, and Ball should help make Edwards even more efficient than he has been during Edwards’ ascent to All-NBA status.
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Nehm: I worry a little bit about how ball-dominant both players can be and I have watched how difficult it can be for a team to put together two heliocentric offensive talents. But I thought Ball showed more restraint this past season in Charlotte when surrounded with a more talented group. He played well with Brandon Miller and Kon Knueppel and his passing helped amplify that group’s talent.
Similarly, I thought there were moments in Minnesota, especially in the playoffs, where the Timberwolves were just forced to ask way too much out of Edwards. He is a spectacular offensive player, but it is tough when there aren’t quite enough other creators on the squad. Having Ball shoulder the burden in the biggest moments should be a welcome change for Edwards.
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After a playoffs that seemed to indicate that size was becoming more important again, the Timberwolves have now moved Julius Randle and Naz Reid. Do you think they have overcorrected?
Koreen: Herein lies the problem for me. I think the importance of loading up on bigs to deal with Victor Wembanyama might be a touch overstated — we always overreact to what we just saw — but the Wolves have no proven bigs behind Gobert now.
I’m sure we will see a lot of lineups with McDaniels as the “power forward.” That’s fine for the regular season, but maybe less so for the playoffs. Do the Wolves think Joan Beringer is ready for 15 to 20 minutes per night? They’ll have limited avenues to improve their frontcourt depth after paying Ayo Dosunmu as much as they did. Can they move a promising guard, such as Terrence Shannon Jr., for a young big in the type of need-for-need trade we rarely see?
I get why they did this, but if I were the Wolves, I’d be worried about the roster imbalance.
Murray: Last time I checked, Rudy Gobert was still on the team. And Minnesota needs to see what it has in Joan Beringer, who could be Gobert’s successor in the near future. The Timberwolves certainly need to add power forwards, though. Jaden McDaniels is still listed at 185 pounds, for crying out loud, and he plays like it. Keep him on the perimeter. Size has always been important. The playoffs showed that skill is important,too. The Timberwolves have holes, but I don’t look at this as an overcorrection.
Nehm: I’m fascinated to see what they do to fill out the rest of the roster. I think Rudy Gobert is a spectacular defensive player and has gotten underrated over the years, but there is just no help there for him. Wembanyama and the Spurs aren’t going anywhere, and the Timberwolves just traded away two of the guys (Julius Randle and Naz Reid) who took turns serving as the primary defender against Wemby this postseason. So, what are the Timberwolves going to do to get the heft necessary to stand up to a player like Wembanyama and also get through an NBA season with enough size on their roster?
The Hornets were the second-half darlings of the NBA last year. How surprised are you that they moved away from what was working for them?
Koreen: Not shocked, but close. The Hornets have been rudderless for so long. I truly thought they would give last season’s core more of a runway to see how real that success was, then reassess by February or after the season.
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But the Coby White trade was obviously more than a hedge against the LaMelo experience. It was a plan for life after Ball. Most teams would let the good times roll, and I think this move is bolder than it initially appears.
Murray: It is shocking. But not surprising. The Hornets had me looking up starter jackets with how they were playing after Ball and Brandon Miller got healthy. They built up some goodwill. But look at the tea leaves. Ball playing 72 games was a minor miracle after he played a combined 105 games over the previous three seasons. There was a stretch in January where Ball was coming off of the bench to manage his minutes. Ball clocked in at a career-low 28.0 minutes per game, even though he’s only 24 years old.
Then there’s the matter of Ball’s notorious driving in Charlotte, the latest scare coming the same month Charlotte acquired White. The Hornets still didn’t make the playoffs. They sold high on Ball, and it’s a basketball shame because Ball was the engine of that potent offense. When Ball was on the floor, the Hornets scored 123.2 points per 100 possessions. When Ball was off the floor, the Hornets scored 110.6 points per 100 possessions. That’s like going from the best offense in the league to Sacramento’s offense last year. But clearly, the Hornets feel like they can have Charles Lee figure the offense out with White while breathing easier on defense and not worrying about Ball’s next injury or incident.
Nehm: I’m not that surprised. I think the Hornets were delighted to play good basketball last season and happy that they did that with many of their core guys contributing to their success, but missing the playoffs might have ended up being a blessing in disguise. That kind of success early in a team’s build can lead to outsized expectations and unreasonable belief in a core that has underlying issues.
If they didn’t believe in Ball as a franchise player, which this trade suggests was the case, then moving off of him is totally reasonable. It is their right to build this team up in the exact vision they want, and they exercised that right by trading Ball, but this will undoubtedly be a fork in the road moment for the franchise. In a few years, we’ll know if they were proven right or wrong in their conviction today.
In two years, which of these feelings will be felt most intensely regarding this trade: Timberwolves gratitude, Timberwolves regret, Hornets gratitude or Hornets regret?
Koreen: As much as I like the Ball-Edwards fit, it’s the Timberwolves regret. Edwards is a good enough talent to try to do everything you can to win around him. However, I think Minnesota is boxed in now with a roster that isn’t quite up to the task of unseating the Thunder or Spurs at the top of the conference. I applaud the gusto with which they’re going for it, but this roster falls just short for me. I worry what this situation will look like in two years.
Murray: Despite how I feel about the Hornets now, I’ll say Hornets gratitude. I do feel like they’re building a culture over there, and establishing a system of how they want to play. They may take steps back, but that’s whatever. This team has already been out of the playoffs for a decade. But they’re going to have assets to play with while taking a hard look at who they are paying in the short term. As for Minnesota? Let’s see how it addresses its needs next month.
Nehm: The Hornets’ willingness to trade Ball suggests that there is at least some risk in trading for Ball, but I think this pairing is going to work in Minnesota. I think Ball and Edwards are going to hit it off and enjoy playing together, and I think both will sign extensions to remain in Minnesota for years to come. Figuring out the rest of the roster is going to be a difficult task for Connelly, but I ultimately think Timberwolves gratitude will be the feeling felt most intensely in two years.