The ‘concerning’ trend that may end Taylor Fritz’s Grand Slam dream
Taylor Fritz has had a very encouraging grass court season but there is one trend that he needs to arrest if he wants to win a Grand Slam.
The American has been a consistent top 10 player for more than four years now, with the 6ft 5in Californian regularly in the back end of majors these days.
Between 2023-25, Fritz won more than 50 matches a season and achieved a win percentage of 70; putting him just below the game’s elite.
The former US Open finalist has struggled to push through the world No 4 ranking barrier, and time may be running out for him as he approaches his 29th birthday.
After a troublesome knee injury waylaid his progress earlier this year, Fritz has reached back-to-back grass court finals in Stuttgart and Halle this month.
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While the 28-year-old lost to Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe in those championship matches, Fritz will be encouraged by the amount of matches he is winning and some of the gruelling victories he has achieved along the way.
Ahead of Wimbledon, tennis content creator and commentator Gill Gross has highlighted a weakness in Fritz’s game – namely, his return of serve.
Gross pointed out that Fritz’s break percentage by year has fallen significantly since 2022.
That year, he was at 24.7%, in 2023 that fell to 22.5%, in 2024 it was on 20%, and in 2025 that slumped to 18.1%. Gross added that in 2026, that has dropped to 12-12.5% and if he wants to challenge for the biggest tournaments, those numbers simply aren’t good enough.
Describing this as a “concerning trend”, he said on his YouTube channel, “Taylor Fritz’s break percentage by year has continued to decline since 2022.
“Taylor needs to try and reverse that, but it is not going to be an easy thing for that number to go the other direction during the grass court season.
“Obviously, it didn’t help that Fritz didn’t play a lot of clay court tennis, where you can generally pad that number a little bit.
“But let’s be honest and real, the fact that that number is so far under water compared to where it needs to be, it’s not because he’s not played clay court tennis, it’s because he hasn’t broken serve well enough in 2026.
“The knee tendonitis would not have helped. I think his movement took a little bit of a step back this year from where it was in previous years.
“It’s been an area of his game where he has improved immensely, even if it is not upper echelon and never will be. I think it’s stayed a little step back.
“I just think this is the thing to watch with Fritz, when he starts breaking serve again closer to 18-20%, when we start to see that again, that’s when we definitely know he is going to be a factor once again.”
Gross added that Fritz has had a “tremendous” grass court campaign so far and is likely to be a threat at Wimbledon, where he is the sixth seed.
The former World Tour Finals runner-up made it to the semi-finals of Wimbledon last year, where he lost to Carlos Alcaraz in four competitive sets.
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