Optim Analyse

Keaton Wagler selected by LA Clippers with the No. 5 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft

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The Athletic has live coverage of the 2026 NBA Draft.

The LA Clippers selected Keaton Wagler with the No. 5 pick Tuesday in the 2026 NBA Draft.

Wagler averaged 17.9 points, 5.1 rebounds and 4.2 assists in his only season with Illinois, which lost to UConn in the national semifinals.

Wagler has great size for an NBA combo guard. At the combine, he measured 6-foot-5 in bare feet with a 6 feet 6 1/4-inch wingspan. Wagler will have no problem playing on or off ball at that size, and he could develop into a flexible positional defender. He’s also a coordinated, balanced athlete. He’s not very explosive, but he maintains his balance at odd angles while playing well off of two feet and changing speeds.

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By far the biggest question around Wagler’s NBA outlook is his physical frame, which has a lot of room for improvement. He got stronger throughout the course of the year under Illinois’ strength and conditioning staff, widely considered one of the best in college basketball. But he still has a long way to go to be physically ready to play in the NBA. Wagler weighed 188 pounds at the combine.

Sam Vecenie’s analysis

How Keaton Wagler came from out of nowhere to become a top NBA prospect
Sam Vecenie
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I fall in love with players such as Wagler. Players who can dribble, pass, shoot and process the game quickly are tough to pass up for me. Wagler is a terrific bet to play both on and off the ball in an era when the NBA demands those skills from perimeter players. He drills over 38 percent of his pull-up 3s and catch-and-shoot 3s, making him a serious floor-spacing threat. His vision is superb and his handle is tight and slithery, despite playing upright. He’s an elite decision-maker with an excellent feel for the game. This is the kind of player who thrives in today’s NBA, and he’s already played in an NBA-style scheme with NBA-level spacing at Illinois.

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There aren’t many scenarios in which Wagler crashes out of the league and fails, because it’s hard to do so when you can shoot, pass and handle at this level. But to reach his All-Star upside, Wagler needs to get stronger. He’s totally fearless on his drives and seems to have great basketball character. But he needs to get more physical to maintain the advantages he creates in ball screens and become a consistent on-ball threat. He’ll also need strength to defend more consistently than he showed at Illinois this year. It’s going to take some time.

This is the biggest surprise one-and-done draft pick in the entire time I’ve been scouting. Wagler was elite this season at Illinois despite his lack of pedigree. He also led the No. 1 offense in the country. This is a potential All-Star guard if things break right with his physical development. But even if he’s always a bit too skinny, I still think teams should bet on him.

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Overall 6 Guard 3

Keaton Wagler Illinois

Superb processor with lethal jumper and unselfish mindset; a hard guard not to love.

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Photo of Keaton Wagler Illinois

John Hollinger’s analysis

Wagler has a skinny frame, near-zero explosiveness and ran maybe two fast breaks the entire season. Yet he tormented college defenses in the half court with his deep shooting range, ability to get into his shot off the dribble and craft in beating switches with crossovers and decel Euro steps at the cup. He’s unflappable on the ball, rarely getting sped up, and won’t take a bad shot.

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While he has deep shooting range, he wasn’t quite as elite overall as highlights make it seem, hitting 39.7 percent from 3 and 79.6 percent from the line. Wagler partly offset that by drawing fouls at a shocking rate for somebody with his build.

The system at Illinois definitely benefited Wagler, with a surfeit of pick-and-pop bigs surrounding him, and I am particularly interested to see him play at NBA speed after walking the ball up the court every play for the Illini. Forget getting sped up by opponents; he’s going to be sped up by the eight-second rule.

Wagler also only shot 47.1 percent on 2s in Big Ten play and didn’t have the sterling assist rate of Kingston Flemings or Darius Acuff Jr., and his low steal rate stands out (in a bad way) for a guard prospect, although he did use his length to block jump shots on several occasions.

David Aldridge’s draft confidential

College assistant coach No. 3 (his team played Illinois): I think he’s got a high ceiling. I think he’s going to get stronger. He didn’t play as well at the end of the season as he did in the middle of the season, but he was at the top of everyone’s scouting report. He was their go-to guy on the perimeter, and as good as they were, they didn’t really have a post option. The kid is, I hear, a great kid. I don’t know him personally. He’s a very, very good player. He had 46 in Mackey Arena when they beat Purdue. And I’ve never seen anybody do that as an opponent. I like him better than Jaku (Kasparas Jakučionis, the Illini guard taken by the Miami Heat in the first round last year). I think he’s just going to get better, stronger. Because he’s slotted so high, he has to go, but another year of college would have helped him.

Eastern Conference scout No. 2: For him to excel, it’s going to be (at the) one, because he’s got size, and his shooting is real. As he gets stronger, he can play both (guard positions) because of his size. Once he gets stronger.

This story will be updated.

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