Who will go No. 1? NBA mock draft reveals biggest risers, fallers and predictions

What’s one more mock draft, right?

In May, hours after the NBA Draft Lottery, The Athletic NBA writers made their predictions on how they saw the lottery shaking out. In the weeks that followed, prospects have been interviewed, measured, put through drills and visited various teams across the league. With the draft finally here, what better time than now to have our writers make their picks for the entire first round?

Some picks at the top stayed the same; others not so much.

1. Washington Wizards

AJ Dybantsa, wing, 6-9, BYU: For Washington, this choice comes down to Dybantsa or Darryn Peterson, and I think the Wizards will go here with Dybantsa, a jumbo wing who has the potential to develop into a foundational player. Dybantsa already is a gifted, explosive scorer with a knack for drawing fouls. He also possesses all the physical capabilities to be an excellent defender. Tasks for the Wizards and Dybantsa will include developing into a consistently plus defender and developing his 3-point shooting. I think having Trae Young and Anthony Davis on the roster will take pressure off Dybantsa and the rest of the team’s young nucleus. — Josh Robbins

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Overall 1 Wing 1

AJ Dybantsa BYU

Elite tools for a wing; could easily become a top-10 NBA player.

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Why AJ Dybantsa is the no. 1 prospect in this year’s NBA Draft

Sam Vecenie

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2. Utah Jazz

Darryn Peterson, guard, 6-4, Kansas: The Jazz are over the moon, as they happily take Peterson. Of the three teams at the top of the draft, this is the cleanest fit for both sides. The Jazz, who don’t currently have a starting-level shooting guard on their roster, take the best shooting guard in the draft. Peterson immediately steps into a situation where he plays a bunch of minutes and takes on a bunch of responsibility but inherits only a fraction of the pressure that comes with it, seeing the Jazz also have Lauri Markkanen, Keyonte George and Jaren Jackson Jr. as offensive hubs. Peterson in Will Hardy’s offense is very intriguing. — Tony Jones

Overall 3 Guard 1

Darryn Peterson Kansas

An elite shooter with All-NBA scoring guard upside, despite his strange Kansas year.

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3. Memphis Grizzlies

Cameron Boozer, forward, 6-8, Duke: Boozer won’t provide the jaw-dropping highlights or polarizing attitude that made Ja Morant such a sensation, but as the Grizzlies prepare for the inevitable breakup with their star point guard, having a prospect like Boozer at the head of the rebuild is an excellent place to start. His size and versatility should make him a great fit in a frontcourt that already features first-round picks Zach Edey and Cedric Coward. Boozer has an excellent feel on the offensive end, and he’s comfortable playing on the low block or beyond the 3-point line. His development as an on-ball creator will dictate how high his ceiling will be. Either way, most scouts expect Boozer to be a reliable, productive player for a long time. The Grizzlies are in desperate need of someone who provides that kind of stability. — Will Guillory

Overall 2 Forward 1

Cameron Boozer Duke

Versatile, skilled forward with a brilliant offensive mind; needs to find a role on defense.

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4. Chicago Bulls

Caleb Wilson, forward, 6-9, North Carolina: Many people still view this as a deep draft with four star prospects at the top, no matter the order. New lead Bulls executive Bryson Graham makes a selection here that’s effectively decided for him. Chicago needs talent. Wilson is an explosive athlete unlike any in this draft, a 6-foot-9 forward who lives above the rim and possesses the leaping ability to both dominate transition and be a potential defensive playmaker. He’d give the Bulls some definition in a hollow frontcourt, as well as a developmental pairing with 21-year-old Matas Buzelis. The athleticism, though, is the baseline. What seemingly dictates Wilson’s ceiling is his jump shot, currently a non-factor in his game. He hardly needed one in the NCAA, but sprinkled throughout the tape are signs of touch. The Bulls, for what it’s worth, don’t seem worried about the difficulty of that project. — Joel Lorenzi

Overall 4 Forward 2

Caleb Wilson North Carolina

Explosive athlete whose ceiling is as high as the top three, but has more flaws.

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5. LA Clippers

Darius Acuff, guard, 6-2, Arkansas: Tired is thinking of Clippers asset management through the lens of Kawhi Leonard. Wired is seeing that this draft works as a litmus test for Darius Garland. I would put this pick up for sale, and if I’m doing that, I’m getting the draft rights to Darius Acuff — yes, the one point guard who is most in conflict with duplicating Garland. The Clippers have a complicated decision here, and with no real right answer or perfect fit, it’s a good problem to have. Take the best player and figure it out, barring a trade they should absolutely be interested in. — Law Murray

Overall 5 Guard 2

Darius Acuff Jr. Arkansas

The most polished teenage guard to enter the league in years; defense is the big question.

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6. Brooklyn Nets

Keaton Wagler, guard, 6-5, Illinois: Wagler is a great archetype for the Nets to bet on. He has size, he has skill, he can shoot, and he’s an overachiever. All of that matters. The Nets still need a lead guard, and Wagler can be that. He’d allow them to play big lineups — Wagler is 6-5 without shoes — and they would get a smooth passer and playmaker on the ball who can stretch defenses. Lineups with Wagler, Egor Demin and Michael Porter Jr. might be pretty interesting next season. There’s no concern about how Wagler would fit on the team, and he’d offer them the foundational player they’ve been missing. The shooting is what sets him apart from the other guards in this range. — Mike Vorkunov

Overall 6 Guard 3

Keaton Wagler Illinois

Superb processor with lethal jumper and unselfish mindset; a hard guard not to love.

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7. Sacramento Kings

Kingston Flemings, guard, 6-3, Houston: The Kings tried the veteran point guard route last offseason with Dennis Schröder (who was traded to Cleveland) and Russell Westbrook. Now it’s time to find a point guard again. The Kings need an infusion of talent, and Flemings makes the most sense here. They need a long-term replacement for De’Aaron Fox, whom they traded to San Antonio last year. Adding more youth to a team that still leans on veterans like Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan and Domantas Sabonis is essential for the latest version of the Kings’ rebuild. Flemings’ athleticism and potential to be a two-way standout are a good addition to some of Sacramento’s young pieces as the team shifts away from its veterans. — Jason Jones

Overall 7 Guard 4

Kingston Flemings Houston

All-Star upside with lightning-quick first step; must improve his gathers and shooting.

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8. Atlanta Hawks

Aday Mara, big, 7-3, Michigan: Mara is not the next-ranked player on my board — that would be Brayden Burries. But if the top seven go as above, then I think the idea of drafting Mara will be utterly irresistible. Teams can talk about drafting for talent and not for need all they want, but when your starting center is 6-8, and your playoff backup was 210-pound Mo Gueye, the idea of having a 7-3 rim protector on a controlled contract for four years becomes extremely compelling. — John Hollinger

Overall 13 Big 3

Aday Mara Michigan

A special passer at 7-foot-3 who finishes efficiently and protects the rim.

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9. Dallas Mavericks

Brayden Burries, guard, 6-4, Arizona: Burries contributed in a lot of different ways for one of college basketball’s best teams last season, averaging 16.1 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.5 steals. Burries isn’t an extremely explosive player, but he found ways to score from practically everywhere on the court. He’s got sound shooting mechanics and reliably finishes through contact at the rim. He shot 39.1 percent from 3 and an extremely healthy 56.2 percent on 2s. He makes a lot of sense as a complementary piece alongside Cooper Flagg and Kyrie Irving. — Christian Clark

Overall 8 Guard 5

Brayden Burries Arizona

An aggressive scoring guard who makes shots, attacks in transition and defends fiercely.

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10. Milwaukee Bucks

Mikel Brown Jr., guard, 6-4, Louisville: This selection is pretty straightforward … if the draft falls the right way for the Bucks. From my perspective, this draft has two tiers before Milwaukee gets to pick at No. 10: the top four and then five guards. In this mock draft, the Hawks taking Aday Mara allows the Bucks to get one of the five guards who make up the second tier of prospects. Brown has incredibly high upside as an off-the-dribble shooter, playmaker and 3-point shooter, but he is a polarizing prospect with some downside risk as well because of his size. Even with those issues, Brown is the obvious pick. — Eric Nehm

Overall 10 Guard 6

Mikel Brown Jr. Louisville

A home-run hitter of a lead guard who could stand to settle for singles at times.

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11. Golden State Warriors

Yaxel Lendeborg, forward, 6-9, Michigan: The big man fits a lot of needs for the Warriors. He can shoot from the outside, he can provide length defensively and he just helped the Wolverines win a national title. He can come in and help right away — and is excited (just like anybody else would be) about playing off Stephen Curry. Lendeborg checks boxes for a Warriors team in need of more talent — the only real question mark about him is his age: He will be 24 when the season begins. — Nick Friedell

Overall 9 Forward 3

Yaxel Lendeborg Michigan

Versatile two-way forward who is older but possesses elite tools and winning mindset.

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12. Oklahoma City Thunder

Morez Johnson, big, 6-9, Michigan: Johnson fits the Thunder boxes that matter, which is to say he’s a winner and projects as an impactful defender. At 6-9 and 250 pounds, he should also be a scalable defender and rim protector and able to share the floor offensively with OKC’s stretch bigs immediately. While he’s not a remarkable screener, he’s a hard roller and finishes plays at the rim. Give Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as many play finishers as possible. — Joel Lorenzi

Overall 11 Big 1

Morez Johnson Jr. Michigan

A versatile frontcourt defender who can roam the perimeter and destroy the glass.

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13. Milwaukee Bucks

Hannes Steinbach, big, Washington: Throughout his various mock drafts, our draft expert Sam Vecenie has talked about the interest the Bucks have in Steinbach and this would be a great spot to take him. Leaving this draft with one of the five guards in the draft’s second tier and a big man with upside like Steinbach would be a spectacular outcome for Milwaukee. Steinbach might be the draft’s best rebounder, especially on the offensive glass, and that will be a great fit for new head coach Taylor Jenkins, who regularly prioritized winning the possession battle in Memphis. — Eric Nehm

Overall 12 Big 2

Hannes Steinbach Washington

Starting-caliber center with terrific hands, frame and footwork who will crash the glass.

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14. Charlotte Hornets

Christian Anderson, guard, Texas Tech: This is a tough spot for the Hornets. (And especially tough for their fake general manager, who was forced to change his pick after the Bucks acquired the 13th pick late last night.)

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In an ideal world, there would be a big man available for the Hornets, but that isn’t the case, so let’s go in a different direction. Last season, few teams placed a greater importance on 3-point shooting than the Hornets, so let’s take the best shooter in the draft. Anderson is only 6-foot-1, but the Hornets have great size among the rest of their guards and wings, so they should be able to cover for him on the defensive end, while he figures out how to contribute at the NBA level.— Eric Nehm

Overall 17 Guard 7

Christian Anderson Texas Tech

The best shooter in the class; can he create rim pressure and defend at his size?

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15. Chicago Bulls

Dailyn Swain, guard, 6-7, Texas: The Bulls, both pre- and post-trade deadline decimation, had close to no one who could consistently put pressure on the rim. It felt like they had even fewer shot creators. Swain boasts what feels like hours of film of unassisted buckets, with so much wiggle and creativity at his size. Plus, he gives you a solid defensive baseline. If Wilson and Matas Buzelis are to eventually be central to the Bulls’ offense, Swain feels like a good bet as a tertiary playmaker and gap-filler who can mold to different lineups and create offense when other actions die. The shot is questionable, yes, but let’s worry about that later. — Joel Lorenzi

Overall 15 Wing 2

Dailyn Swain Texas

A dynamic driver and finisher who must improve his defense and jump shot to be a starter.

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16. Memphis Grizzlies

Nate Ament, forward, 6-10, Tennessee: Ament was considered a consensus top-10 pick at one point, so getting him after the lottery seems like a pretty good outcome. At the very least, Ament is a high upside swing who fits into the identity that’s coming together with the addition of Boozer at No. 3. With Boozer and Ament, Memphis has the chance to build a massive frontcourt with versatility on the offensive end and enough length and athleticism to cover a lot of ground on defense. — Will Guillory

Overall 14 Forward 4

Nate Ament Tennessee

Can handle and pass at 6-10 but lacks strength and efficiency; upside is tantalizing.

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17. Oklahoma City Thunder

Cameron Carr, guard, 6-4, Baylor: This, too, feels Thundery. Carr is a guy who should give you instant offense, something they could use out of a wing group that’s seen redundancy in archetype. He’s not a trademark stopper, though the Thunder have an abundance of those. But he’s disruptive with potential as a defensive playmaker, which should be good enough for OKC. — Joel Lorenzi

Overall 18 Wing 3

Cameron Carr Baylor

Terrific 3-point shooter and attacker; needs to get stronger and more active on defense.

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18. Charlotte Hornets

Labaron Philon, guard, 6-3, Alabama: Coby White is an unrestricted free agent this offseason. He stepped up in a major way for the Hornets in their two Play-In games this past season, which makes it clear that the Hornets could use a guard off the bench to run the second unit. That might be a big ask of a 20-year-old point guard, but Philon has the skill to fill that role. He is a high-level playmaker and shooter, but there are questions about his size and physicality. — Eric Nehm

Overall 20 Guard 9

Labaron Philon Jr. Alabama

Highly skilled guard who’s pro-ready but lacks explosiveness and size.

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19. Toronto Raptors

Bennett Stirtz, guard, 6-3, Iowa: Kentucky big man Jayden Quaintance could be the pick here, as the Raptors could use a developmental center. However, his knee injury remains a question mark. With that in mind, it makes sense for the Raptors to get more shooting in-house. A “floor-general” type isn’t the Raptors biggest need with Jamal Shead entering his third season. But with Carr gone, Stirtz is the best bet to provide a perimeter threat. — Eric Koreen

Overall 21 Guard 10

Bennett Stirtz Iowa

Epitome of a floor general and a terrific shooter; can he separate from NBA defenders?

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20. San Antonio Spurs

Karim Lopez, forward, 6-8, New Zealand Breakers: The Spurs could use a big, physical forward between their talented guards and center Victor Wembanyama. Lopez, who’s 6-8 and weighs 221 pounds, is a bruiser who fits this description. The Hermosillo, Mexico native is a throwback power forward who spent last season playing professionally in New Zealand. Lopez likes to drive downhill and crash the glass. He’s not terribly explosive, but that weakness could be mitigated on this already athletic Spurs team. — Christian Clark

Overall 24 Forward 7

Karim Lopez NZ Breakers

Big and skilled for his young age, but movement and agility leave a lot to be desired.

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Imagine Karim Lopez, a bruising power forward, playing next to Victor Wembanyama. (Emily Barker / Getty Images)

21. Detroit Pistons

Isaiah Evans, wing, 6-6, Duke: Evans is proficient in an area of need for the Pistons: 3-point shooting. The wing shot 38 percent from behind the arc on 5.8 attempts per game during his two seasons as a Blue Devil. He’ll need to add weight to finish at a more consistent rate around the rim and guard opposing wings, but Evans’ upside makes him worthy of a late first-round selection. If Detroit molds Evans into a consistent offensive contributor, he could blossom into a floor-spacer off the bench with the ability to score in multiple ways. — Hunter Patterson

Overall 35 Wing 6

Isaiah Evans Duke

An off-ball movement shooter with length who needs to get stronger.

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22. Philadelphia 76ers

Allen Graves, forward, 6-8, Santa Clara: Graves is big and skilled. He can rebound and shoot the basketball. His emergence as one of the top freshmen in the country became a big story in college basketball last season, and he parlayed that success into a first-round NBA Draft grade. The Sixers need someone of his size and girth at the power forward spot. The beauty of Graves is that he also helps Philadelphia’s need for shooting, as he knocked down over 40 percent of his 3-point attempts last season. At 6-8, Graves can handle the ball in the open floor. He’s a good passer and uncommonly skilled overall for someone of his size. — Tony Jones

Overall 30 Forward 8

Allen Graves Santa Clara

High-IQ player and analytics darling who needs to maximize his body and offensive skill.

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23. Atlanta Hawks

Ebuka Okorie, guard, 6-1, Stanford: If the Hawks’ first pick is a big, as I have it above, then they will likely feel pretty heavy pressure to take a point guard with the second one (That’s if the pick isn’t traded, which is also definitely possible). Atlanta doesn’t have a true point guard at the moment in its post-Trae Young incarnation, and the second units in particular could look disorganized. While the highest-rated player left on my personal board here is Spanish guard Sergio de Larrea, he likely overlaps too much with the Hawks’ other wings. I think Atlanta would be strongly tempted to take either Okorie or Bennett Stirtz here instead, taking advantage of an unusually deep point guard draft. I have Okorie rated higher and think his downhill, scoring game might fit better with a second group that could use some shot-creation punch. — John Hollinger

Overall 19 Guard 8

Ebuka Okorie Stanford

An elite rim-pressure guard who lives in the paint; must work on passing and defense.

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24. New York Knicks

Koa Peat, forward, 6-7, Arizona: Despite just winning the championship, New York’s roster could use another ballhandler, preferably one with some size, so come on down, Peat! To be clear, Peat’s best trait as a player isn’t his ballhandling (that’s reserved for his screening/short-roll instincts and being physical while also being controlled), but he’s comfortable putting the ball on the ground. This draft class isn’t stocked with big, ballhandling guards, making Peat an interesting target for New York. He can play either forward spot at the next level and would also bring some up-top athleticism to a team that could use a little more. Peat’s shot has a ways to go, but it’s not broken. And he doesn’t have the quickest feet, which will test him defensively. There’s enough there, though, to make me believe he can be a solid player in the NBA. — James L. Edwards III

Overall 16 Forward 5

Koa Peat Arizona

The jump shot is a concern, but he’s a proven winner who’ll do whatever his team needs.

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25. Los Angeles Lakers

Tarris Reed, big, 6-10, Connecticut: The Lakers are focused on giving Luka Dončić the best possible roster that fits his game, and Reed, at least on the surface, isn’t a prototypical lob threat. He is, though, a tremendous screen-setter, a tough rebounder and a winner. Word from his extensive pre-draft workouts is that he’s also shown shooting range that he didn’t get to showcase at UConn. He seems like a ready-made backup big from the jump, and because of that, a handful of my league sources believe he’ll be off the board by No. 25. I’m lucky to have gotten him here. — Dan Woike

Overall 27 Big 6

Tarris Reed Jr. Connecticut

A versatile backup big who crushes the glass, finishes on the interior and passes well.

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26. Denver Nuggets

Sergio de Larrea, guard, 6-6, Valencia: It’s hard to say whether the Nuggets will have the roster flexibility to use this pick or if they kick it down the road by trading it. This team needs offensive creation outside of what Nikola Jokić does. Jamal Murray is more of a scorer than a creator, and they’ve been missing that guard off the bench to run some offense through. With de Larrea in the mix, they’ll have good size at the guard position and someone who can orchestrate more. — Zach Harper

Overall 32 Guard 12

Sergio De Larrea Valencia

A secondary playmaker with length who needs to get stronger and tighten his handle.

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27. Boston Celtics

Jayden Quaintance, big, 6-9, Kentucky: Quaintance’s health is in question, but nobody in this draft has more defensive potential. He is big. He is strong. He has great instincts. His feet don’t move like everybody else’s. The Celtics could use some frontcourt depth right away, and he could take time to develop. They shouldn’t let that stop them. Near the end of the first round, the Boston front office won’t find this much upside anywhere else. Quaintance is somewhat reminiscent of Robert Williams, whom the Celtics also landed with the 27th pick. — Jay King

Overall 22 Big 4

Jayden Quaintance Kentucky

Potential All-Defense big with limited offensive skill; is he healthy?

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28. Minnesota Timberwolves

Meleek Thomas, guard, 6-3, Arkansas: This pick is headed to Brooklyn as part of Monday’s agreed-upon trade for Minnesota’s Julius Randle. The Nets really need some help in the backcourt, and a guy who can shoot and score would be good for this roster. Thomas is a young player who just paired pretty well with Acuff at Arkansas and can really fill it up from deep. He needs to be reined in a bit with decision-making, but his pure talent would put on a show in Brooklyn. The Nets just had a similar player with Cam Thomas, but this Thomas should be more manageable. — Zach Harper

Overall 31 Guard 11

Meleek Thomas Arkansas

A gifted scorer and shooter whose poor defense and wild decision-making raise questions.

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29. Cleveland Cavaliers

Henri Veesaar, big, 6-11, North Carolina: This is a mock draft, not a collective bargaining agreement lecture or second-apron seminar. You’re likely generally aware that the Cavs had the most expensive roster in the NBA last season and are barreling toward a roster that costs way over $200 million and crosses the apron threshold. They have to cut costs somewhere, right? The answer to that question is partially why I think they would trade this pick and use the roster spot on a cheaper veteran. But they also might instead allow Dean Wade to walk in free agency, which would create a real need for a player like Veesaar. And if they decide to pay Wade and basically go all in on last year’s core, with no care for roster cost, well, they still need to find a big to back up Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. Veesaar could fit there. He’s a 7-footer who can really shoot and is a European coming into the NBA with more experience than the one-and-done American college players. He is also skinny like Mobley. Perhaps they can become workout partners and bulk up as a tandem. — Joe Vardon

Overall 29 Big 8

Henri Veesaar North Carolina

A 7-footer who can dribble, pass and shoot, but will need to defend better.

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30. Dallas Mavericks

Alex Karaban, wing, 6-7, Connecticut: Karaban started 150 games in his four-year college career at Connecticut. It’s easy to understand why Dan Hurley never wanted to take him off the court. Karaban is a big wing who can shoot the heck out of the basketball and who doesn’t make many mistakes. Karaban shot 37.4 percent from behind the arc on more than five attempts per game with the Huskies. He understands how to move without the ball and is a strong team defender. At 6-6 1/2 with a 6-11 wingspan, he’s got good size. The big question is how does Karaban hold up athletically at the next level? — Christian Clark

Overall 34 Wing 5

Alex Karaban Connecticut

A winning role player who is sound on defense and knocks down shots off movement.

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Who will go No. 1? NBA mock draft reveals biggest risers, fallers and predictions

1. Washington Wizards

2. Utah Jazz

3. Memphis Grizzlies

4. Chicago Bulls

5. LA Clippers

6. Brooklyn Nets

7. Sacramento Kings

8. Atlanta Hawks

9. Dallas Mavericks

10. Milwaukee Bucks

11. Golden State Warriors

12. Oklahoma City Thunder

13. Milwaukee Bucks

14. Charlotte Hornets

15. Chicago Bulls

16. Memphis Grizzlies

17. Oklahoma City Thunder

18. Charlotte Hornets

19. Toronto Raptors

20. San Antonio Spurs

21. Detroit Pistons

22. Philadelphia 76ers

23. Atlanta Hawks

24. New York Knicks

25. Los Angeles Lakers

26. Denver Nuggets

27. Boston Celtics

28. Minnesota Timberwolves

29. Cleveland Cavaliers

30. Dallas Mavericks

Analyse

2026-06-25 07:14:20