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What does Jonas Vingegaard do as the Giro d’Italia reaches its week 3 endgame?
Obliterate the race, Tadej Pogačar style? Or shut it down and horde watts for the Tour de France?
Speaking Monday in a rest-day press conference, the Giro’s pink jersey kept his options open.
“The third week is by far the hardest here in this race,” Vingegaard said Monday. “There are also a lot of chances in the third week.
“We will choose our days. I’m not going to tell which days it will be, but we will not race completely defensively always, that’s for sure.”
It seems the maglia rosa is stitched onto Vingegaard’s shoulders as he rides into a third week he could crush, if he wants to.
He finished a Visma-Lease a Bike assault on the Alps with devastating consequences Saturday.
His third mountaintop victory beat his rivals into despondency. The likes of Afonso Eulálio, Felix Gall, and Jai Hindley seem to have resigned themselves to a race for second-place.
The third week of the Giro d’Italia starting Tuesday is as unpleasant as ever, and perfect for Vingegaard.
A micro distance “unipuerto” stage on Tuesday, a devastating six-climb sufferfest in the Dolomites on stage 19 (Friday), and a double ascent of Piancavallo on stage 20 (Saturday) could become stop-offs in Vingegaard’s victory parade.
Here’s the very mountainous lay of the land of the Giro’s third week.
The stages that will decide the podium of the Giro d’Italia
Three mountaintop finishes, two sprint stages, and a breakaway / hilly day stand between the beat-down peloton and a prosecco and pizza party on Sunday night in Rome.
Stages 16, 19, and 20 are the three marked “must-watch.”
S16 (Tuesday): 113km, 3000m+
S19 (Friday): 151km, 5000m+
S20 (Saturday): 200km, 3750m+
Vingegaard’s choice: (a) Shut down the Giro d’Italia, save for the Tour
Vingegaard has been untouchable on the uphills of this Giro. Even when he was off-color in the second week, he was unmatched.
Three summit victories in three says it all.
And it’s not just the maglia rosa. His Visma-Lease a Bike superdomestiques Davide Piganzoli and Sepp Kuss join him as two of the best climbers in the race.
They’ve been so dominant Vingegaard’s most likely rival Felix Gall has all-but given up. His 2:50 deficit can’t be overturned.
“There is no point in thinking of beating Jonas,” Gall told reporters after Saturday’s stage. “It’s more of a race for the podium for me.”
Of course, Vingegaard and Visma are too smart to think the Giro is won – they proved last year with Simon Yates the corsa rosa is a race of blow-ups, meltdowns, and turnarounds.
But their thoughts must now be shifting to the Tour de France.
Vingegaard and Pogacar will clip in for the grand départ six weeks from now.
Visma has the race so locked shut that it seems like they could give Vingegaard an armchair ride to Rome. Every watt the Dane saves now will pay dividends in July.
His 2:26 GC gap over a fast-fatiguing Eulálio after stage 15 is all that’s needed – he can click into eco mode and let Kuss, Piganzoli, and “pee-pee Campi” suffocate the race.
At 113km and maybe three hours of racing, stage 16 is short enough for Visma-Lease a Bike to control from kilometer zero.
Contrastingly, stage 19 through the Dolomites is so hard that Decathlon and Red Bull might not dare swipe at the “Killer Bees” until maybe the second-last climb. The stage is a brute, but it might be brutally simple for V-LAB, too.
After that, Vingegaard only has to navigate one last nut-busting double-dose of Piancavallo on Saturday.
Vingegaard looks so assured in pink that a defensive strategy to save matches for the Tour seems sure to work. But it’s not without risk.
“The race is not over before it’s over,” Vingegaard acknowledged Monday. “Everything can happen. I can have a bad day or crash. I can get sick. You never know what happens.”
Vingegaard’s choice: (b) Tear the Giro d’Italia apart for pre-Tour swagger
Vingegaard could also continue to defy his reputation in this final week of the Giro d’Italia.
The “Iceman” isn’t always as boring as people think.
This final week through the deepest Dolomites would be a good chance for him to hammer that message home.
Vingegaard could do this week what Pogačar did when he steamrollered the Giro in 2024 – assert ultimate authority.
Mountaintop victories on stages 16, 19, and 20 would crown Vingegaard the undisputed Mountain King of Italy and put him level with Pogačar on a sextet of stage wins.
OK, so Vingegaard might not be in a position to win the Giro by 10 minutes a la Pog in ’24. But 6 or 7 minutes isn’t out of the question.
The dynamic between Vingegaard’s rivals might make it easier for Visma-Lease a Bike to do as it pleases.
The long climbs of week 3 suit riders like Gall, Hindley, and Thymen Arensman better than the steep ramps of week 2. And all these diesels typically go better the deeper they ride into a grand tour.
But who are they racing, really? Second at the Giro would be the best result on all their palmarès except for former Giro champion Hindley.
It’s hard to see any of the chasing pack risking it all with one “Hail Mary” attack.
“Jonas has put his stamp on the race,” said Derek Gee-West, who’s stranded 5:41 back.
“Action in the third week will probably be based off guys trying to move around him, whether that’s the podium fight, the top-5 fight, the top-10 fight,” Gee-West told Domestique.
Three-stage wins in week 3 is a very real possibility for Vingegaard.
A late-race rout would also be a huge bragging point for him and Visma-Lease a Bike to take to the Tour de France. “The Bees” would be buzzing.
What will Vingegaard do?
Option (A) and (B) above aren’t entirely exclusive.
The most likely playbook for this third week?
Vingegaard does what he’s been doing all Giro d’Italia so far – race efficiently, ruthlessly, and attack only when it matters.
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