CLEVELAND — Before we get to a hand-wringing season in Cavstown (and to be clear, it’s coming), can we just pause to remember the New York Knicks were in the Eastern Conference finals last year?
And didn’t win?
And are on the verge of taking the step this season they couldn’t take a year ago?
It feels as if the Cleveland Cavaliers are a million miles behind the Knicks. In a way, it should, because the goal is to win and advance, and no one in NBA history has done that after falling behind 3-0 in a playoff series, though many have tried. I am here to tell you Cleveland won’t be the first to do it.
But is there such a thing as a series being “closer” than 3-0 might indicate?
“I don’t feel like we are overmatched,” Donovan Mitchell said after his team was ripped at home in Game 3 on Saturday.
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“I hate to harp on it, but we were up 22 (in the fourth quarter of Game 1),” Mitchell said. “So, it’s on us. It’s on everyone in that locker room. We know that, we feel that, and we have an opportunity to get Game 4 and go from there.”
To be abundantly clear, the Knicks are the better team in this series. But Mitchell said something prescient after Game 2 of this series when he said it all “feels worse” when you miss as many shots as the Cavs are missing. They were 12 of 41 from 3-point range and 12 of 19 at the foul line in Game 3. Can’t do that at home.
Entering Game 3, Cleveland was shooting 8 percentage points worse than the analytics say it should have been shooting based on the quality of shots. Mitchell scored 23 points but made 3 of 10 from 3-point range. Evan Mobley led the team with 24 points but made 1 of 6 from 3. James Harden was 1 of 7 from deep, and Max Strus was 4 of 11.
In English, that means the Cavs are getting good, open looks and simply clanking them off the rim. In Game 1, Cleveland had a hand in the faces of the Knicks for a lot of that infamous fourth-quarter collapse — but their shots went in anyway.
“I think we won the expected (shooting percentage) all three games,” coach Kenny Atkinson said. “But, you know, there is expected, and there’s real.”
And the reality stinks for Cleveland right now. The Cavs, probably soon, are going home for the summer with the most expensive roster in NBA history and no finals berth to show for it. The rules are written such that it is unlikely some key role players will be back, and it is nearly impossible to bring in better replacements without first making significant moves to shed salary.
Otherwise, you’re looking at something drastic like trading Evan Mobley for Giannis Antetokounmpo — though two league sources say Cleveland has shown no interest in that move as of now.
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But there is a pretty clear-eyed way to look at what has happened to the Cavs in this series. Gassed from two long playoff series, they suffered an inexcusable, inexplicable collapse in Game 1. Up 22 with about eight minutes left in the fourth quarter, there is simply no way they lose that game. And yet, they did. Calamitous errors by players and coaches and bad luck in those eight minutes pretty much ruined them for the series.
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That’s because, with added pressure from dropping Game 1, Cleveland missed wide-open shots in Game 2 and also left Josh Hart too wide open. And then, facing a win-or-else situation in Game 3, more misses and turnovers led to more poor defense.
“When you don’t hit shots, your defense suffers,” Jarrett Allen said. “That’s just how a player’s mentality is. We can’t let that happen, though. We have to understand that we’re going to hit shots, eventually.”
That moment may have to wait until next season.
But the Knicks are an example of what is possible when one learns from a negative experience. New York hung around for six games against the Indiana Pacers last year, but Game 1 of that series included a 17-point comeback by the Pacers, who needed Tyrese Haliburton’s buzzer-beating shot — which bounced off the rim, went skyward, then fell in — to force overtime. The Cavs have endured the same things this year, in Game 1 and throughout the series.
The Knicks are playing with more poise and more force and seem to have more scoring options. And yes, Jalen Brunson has been a problem the Cavs haven’t been able to solve. New York has won 10 straight in the postseason and are on the verge of a second straight series sweep.
“They’re playing great basketball,” Atkinson said. “We haven’t been able to stop their momentum. We had one chance in that first game to stop it, but haven’t been able to halt their momentum.”
And that’s really it. The whole series comes down to the Cavs fumbling away Game 1.
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Last year, the Knicks’ core of Brunson, Mikal Bridges, Karl-Anthony Towns, Hart and OG Anunoby reached the conference finals for the first time together. Yes, New York changed coaches after that campaign and brought in Mike Brown, but otherwise, the group that failed together against the Pacers largely returned and is thriving now.
This Cleveland team is in its first conference finals together. Also, as Harden likes to point out, it’s a new team because Harden didn’t arrive until the February trade deadline. It takes a lot longer to jell than that.
There is no guarantee this same team will return intact or, if it does that, will return to the conference finals. But it would also be a little shortsighted to simply declare the Knicks are eons ahead of the Cavs in any way other than the score in this series. The timing is simply right for New York, while Cleveland had its best chance to change that in Game 1 — and blew it.
That is the most valuable lesson the Cavs can take with them from this series, whenever it ends.
“Don’t lose Game 1 after being up 22. Changes the entire dynamic of the series,” Mitchell said. “We’re not sitting there and reflecting on that (yet). But if I were to say one thing, it would be that. But hey, it happened, and now we have to find a way to get back from 3-0.”