Yes, really. The 2025-26 ski season isn’t even fully in the books yet, snowflakes are still falling at a handful of holdout resorts, and here we are already talking about next winter. But that’s just who we are. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center dropped its latest long-lead seasonal outlook on May 21, and yes, forecasting seven-plus months ahead is more art than science. Take it with the appropriate pinch of salt. That said, El Niño is knocking on the door, the signal is unusually strong for this time of year, and if you’re the kind of person who likes to plan your season around something more than a hunch, the El Niño 2026-27 ski forecast is already shaping up to be one worth following.
Why the El Niño 2026-27 Ski Forecast Has More Signal Than Usual
After a neutral winter, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific have been climbing steadily since March. NOAA now puts the odds of El Niño emerging by May-June-July at 82%, rising to a 96% chance it persists through the core of winter (December 2026–February 2027). By fall, there’s roughly a 2-in-3 chance it reaches “strong” intensity; Niño 3.4 anomalies above +1.5°C. That’s a significant signal, and at this long of a lead time (7+ months out), a robust El Niño is about the only climate driver that gives seasonal forecasts meaningful skill. The maps below are what it translates to for snow country.
Temperature and Precipitation: Reading the Two Maps That Matter
The temperature story is unambiguous: above-normal warmth is favored virtually everywhere that matters to skiers, all winter long. The northern tier (Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Lakes, and northern New England) faces the strongest warm signal, with probabilities exceeding 50% above normal in December-January-February. The southern tier shows more uncertainty, but there’s no meaningful cold signal anywhere.
On precipitation, the pattern is the classic El Niño split: dry in the northwest, wet in the south. The West Coast and northern Rockies face suppressed precipitation, particularly in the early season (Oct-Nov-Dec through Nov-Dec-Jan). The southern tier (Southwest, southern Plains, and Southeast) leans wetter-than-normal.
Here’s what that means region by region:
El Niño 2026-27 Ski Forecast for the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies
Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon)
This is the toughest outlook on the map. The PNW carries the darkest orange on the temperature charts all winter, the highest confidence for above-normal warmth anywhere in the contiguous US, with 60-70%+ probability in the DJF period. Combine that with below-normal precipitation expected through at least November-December-January, and the early season picture is difficult. Snowpack development is likely to be slow. Elevation will matter more than ever; higher terrain in the Cascades will still capture cold storms when they come, but count on a warmer, drier feel compared to recent winters. Bachelor and Mt. Hood’s lower elevations are most exposed.
Northern Rockies (Montana, Idaho, Wyoming)
The northern Rockies look challenging through much of the winter. Montana and Idaho sit squarely in the below-normal precipitation zone on multiple maps, while temperatures are solidly above normal. The strongest dry signal appears in the October-November-December and November-December-January periods, with some easing to “equal chances” by the core DJF window, but that’s not a recovery, just less certainty about dryness. Resorts dependent on early-season snowpack may face a slow start. Jackson Hole (Wyoming) sits on the southern edge of the dry zone and fares somewhat better in terms of precipitation, though temperatures are still warm.
Colorado, Utah, and the Southwest: A Mixed Bag
Central and Southern Rockies (Colorado, Utah)
The good news for Colorado and Utah: the aggressive dry signal doesn’t reach them. The DJF precipitation map shows “equal chances” for most of the Rockies south of the dry Montana/Idaho core. That means no favored dry outcome; storms can still deliver. The bad news is temperatures are still forecast to be above normal (40-50% probability), which means warmer rain-to-snow lines, more midwinter melt events, and pressure on lower-elevation terrain. Colorado’s high-elevation resorts (Loveland Pass, A-Basin, Loveland, Breckenridge, Vail) are best positioned to weather warm anomalies. Utah’s Wasatch, which already runs cold, could still produce quality snow on the days it storms. It won’t be a repeat of the historic 2022-23 season, but Colorado and Utah are far from a write-off.
Southwest (New Mexico, Arizona)
The Southwest sits in a wetter-than-normal zone on nearly every map, which is the El Niño precipitation signal working in its favor. However, temperatures remain above normal, which is a significant concern for lower-elevation desert mountains. Taos and Ski Santa Fe could see good storm totals but may struggle with snowpack quality at mid-mountain elevations. Snowbowl at 11,500 feet is better insulated. Worth watching as the season approaches.
El Niño 2026-27 Ski Forecast for the East: Warm, Variable, Elevation-Dependent
The Northeast (Vermont, New Hampshire, New York) sees above-normal temperatures throughout the winter — the DJF map shows a 40-50% probability of warmth across New England. Precipitation is in “equal chances” territory, so storms aren’t suppressed, but warm-air intrusions and rain-on-snow events pose an elevated risk. The Great Lakes region also shows a lean toward below-normal precipitation, which could reduce lake-effect snow totals for resorts in western New York and the eastern Great Lakes corridor. Vermont and New Hampshire’s higher terrain (Mansfield, Washington) will hold what snow falls better than lower-elevation terrain. It sets up as a volatile, management-intensive season for eastern resorts, not unlike recent El Niño winters.
How Much Should You Trust an El Niño 2026-27 Ski Forecast This Early?
El Niño winters are not automatically bad winters — past strong events have produced excellent snowfall in Colorado, Utah, and even California. But the 2026-27 setup favors a north-south split that disadvantages the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest while leaving the central and southern Rockies in play. Temperatures above normal are the consistent message everywhere.
The important caveat: this is a May forecast for a December-March winter. Even with a strong El Niño, individual storm tracks matter enormously, and seasonal outlooks describe probabilities, not certainties. We’ll be watching the evolving El Niño signal through summer and will update the forecast as we get closer to opening day.
Full NOAA Discussion
SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions continued through mid-May, but positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have increased across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean during the spring. El Nino is likely to emerge soon (82% chance in May-June-July) and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27 (96% chance in December 2026-February 2027). The June-July-August (JJA) Temperature Outlook favors above-normal temperatures throughout the West, much of the Great Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and East. The highest forecast confidence for above-normal temperatures is across the Pacific Northwest. Above-normal temperatures are also favored for a majority of Alaska. The JJA Precipitation Outlook depicts elevated above-normal precipitation probabilities for parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, Central to Southern Rockies, and the Northeast. The outlook leans towards below-normal precipitation along the western Gulf Coast, along with portions of the Northern Great Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. Above-normal precipitation is favored for western and northern Alaska. Areas depicted in white and labeled "Equal-Chances" or "EC" are regions where climate signals are weak, and so there are equal chances for either above-, near- or below-normal seasonal mean temperatures or total precipitation amounts. BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS Note: For Graphical Displays of the Forecast Tools Discussed Below See: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools/briefing CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS Weekly observed SST departures in the Nino 3.4 region are +0.5 degrees C and have increased steadily since March. From April 19 to May 16, equatorial SSTs were above-average (at or more than 0.5 degrees C) across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. By mid-May, equatorial subsurface temperature anomalies were more than +2 degrees C between 100 and 150 meters at depth, near the Date Line. During late April through mid-May, negative outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation) was observed north of the equator near the Date Line. Above-average OLR (suppressed convection and precipitation) was observed over Indonesia, the Philippines, and south of the equator near the Date Line. Low-level (850-hPa) winds were close to average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, while upper-level (200-hPa) wind anomalies were westerly over the central and east-central Pacific. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) briefly stalled over the Indian Ocean during early May and became less coherent. However, the MJO recently began to resume its eastward propagation to the Maritime Continent. Dynamical model forecasts are in good agreement that a robust MJO propagates east over the West Pacific and eventually shifts to the Western Hemisphere by early June. PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS The CPC SST consolidation forecast for Nino 3.4 depicts SST anomalies increasing through the summer and reaching +1.5 degrees C (strong El Nino threshold) by Sep-Oct-Nov. A majority of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble Members (NMME) along with the ECMWF model also indicate a strong El Nino by the fall. Later in the 2026-27 winter, the CPC SST consolidation forecast depicts anomalies decreasing but remaining above +0.5 degrees C through Feb-Mar-Apr 2027. As of May 14, the CPC ENSO outlook indicates that El Nino is likely to emerge soon (82% chance in May-Jun-Jul) and continue through Dec 2026-Feb 2027 (96% chance). By the late fall and early winter (October-November-December), there is near a 2 in 3 chance of a strong El Nino. PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS The Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks for JJA 2026 were based on dynamical models such as the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and the Copernicus (C3S) multi-model ensemble system. A Calibration, Bridging, and Merging (CBaM) version of the NMME was also used in the outlooks. Soil moisture influence along with its constructed analog were factors in the JJA temperature and precipitation outlooks An objective, historical skill-weighted consolidation that includes the NMME along with statistical tools such as the SST-based Constructed Analog and the ENSO-OCN was used through Oct-Nov-Dec. Beyond that time, the consolidation only includes statistical tools. Long-term climate trends were considered for all leads, but were relied upon most during the 2027 spring and summer. PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - JJA 2026 TO JJA 2027 TEMPERATURE The highest forecast confidence for above-normal temperatures (probabilities more than 60%) during Jun-Jul-Aug (JJA) is across the Pacific Northwest where there is excellent agreement among dynamical models and consistent with favored below-normal precipitation. In addition, El Nino summers tend to be warmer-than-normal. Based on a consensus of dynamical models and statistical tools, enhanced above-normal temperature probabilities (greater than 40%) cover the remainder of the western contiguous U.S. (CONUS), much of the Central to Southern Great Plains, and extend from the Southeast north to southern New England. Equal chances (EC) of below, near, or above-normal temperatures are forecast for the Midwest where a more variable temperature pattern is expected this summer and the warmer dynamical model output is offset by the colder El Nino composites. Although the CBaM version of the NMME depicts elevated below-normal temperature probabilities for parts of the Midwest, a lean towards below-normal temperatures was not introduced until the Jul-Aug-Sep (JAS) outlook as there are signs that June could be warmer-than-normal. Dynamical model output and El Nino composites favor above-normal temperatures throughout Alaska, except for the North Slope. Although the June outlook leans on the colder side for coastal southwestern Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula, elevated above-normal temperature probabilities (33-40%) are forecast across these areas during the three-month period of JJA. Later in the summer and into the early fall, including Jul-Aug-Sep and Aug-Sep-Oct, the outlook slightly favors below-normal temperatures for parts of the Midwest based on El Nino influences historically. Given the increasing chance of a strong El Nino by next winter, above-normal temperature probabilities were increased to more than 50% across the northern tier of the CONUS, from the Pacific Northwest east to the Northern Great Plains, during Dec-Jan-Feb 2026-27. EC was maintained for the southern tier of the CONUS through next winter which is consistent with the SST-Constructed Analog tool. By the late spring and following summer of 2027, decadal trends were the major factor in those temperature outlooks. PRECIPITATION Similar to previous forecast reasoning with low soil moisture favoring enhanced heating and a robust start to the Monsoon along with good dynamical model agreement and consistency, the JJA outlook favors above-normal precipitation for much of the Southwest. Dynamical model output has trended wetter farther to the north into the Central Rockies, and this is consistent with El Nino summers historically. Therefore, the JJA outlook depicts elevated above-normal precipitation probabilities as far north as Wyoming with the largest probabilities (> 40%) centered over the Four Corners. Surrounding this enhanced Monsoon signal, below-normal precipitation is favored for parts of the Pacific Northwest, Northern to Central Great Plains, and Upper Mississippi Valley during JJA. This favored dryness has support from a number of tools including the NMME, SST-Constructed Analog, and decadal trends . In addition, soil moisture is low for Nebraska, southern South Dakota, and parts of Minnesota where there is a significant positive correlation between low May soil moisture and below-normal precipitation during JJA. Forecast confidence for a particular category of precipitation (below, near, or above) is lower for the remainder of the Great Plains and Midwest as the NMME trended notably wetter compared to one month ago. The JJA outlook leans slightly towards below-normal precipitation along the western Gulf Coast based on composites and dynamical model output. For the eastern CONUS, many of the tools lean on the wetter side but vary regionally. Therefore, the JJA precipitation outlook relied upon the consolidation with a slight lean (33-40% chance) towards above-normal precipitation across the Northeast. Based on the NMME, elevated above-normal precipitation probabilities are forecast across western and northern Mainland Alaska. El Nino summers tend to be drier for southern Alaska, but the JJA outlook calls for equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation since last month's outlook favored above-normal precipitation. Starting in Jul-Aug-Sep (JAS) and continuing through Sep-Oct-Nov, elevated above-normal precipitation probabilities are forecast for southern California due to the likelihood of an active East Pacific hurricane season and its associated influence on precipitation. A dry signal in El Nino composites peaks in JAS throughout the south-central CONUS and the precipitation outlook followed this historical guidance. Given the increasing chance of a strong El Nino by the late fall, the Mid-Atlantic is favored to have above-normal precipitation beginning in Oct-Nov-Dec. Compared to last month, above-normal precipitation probabilities were increased across the southern tier of the CONUS during the late fall and 2026-27 winter, now exceeding 60% for parts of the Southeast. El Nino composites also supported a couple of areas with favored below-normal precipitation across parts of the Midwest and Northern Rockies. EC is forecast for nearly all of the West Coast during the winter 2026-27 due to the weak signal from the ENSO-OCN tool. By the summer of 2027, the precipitation outlook is based on decadal trends .