Jonas Vingegaard is Poised to Bury the Giro d’Italia in One Time Trial

Jonas Vingegaard stands to win the Giro d’Italia in just 42 kilometers of flat Tuscan tarmac.

The Giro’s one and only time trial arrives Tuesday, and it will totally reconfigure the GC fight.

Filippo Ganna is favorite for victory over Magnus Sheffield and Mikkel Bjerg on a pan-flat parcours for pure specialists. But the real winners and losers will be in the pack of climbers behind.

For Vingegaard and his rivals, the longest grand tour TT in 10 years could be more decisive to the Giro than its entire third week through the Dolomites and Alps.

The marathon stage 10 “race of truth” will deal hard lessons and multiple-minute losses to some. It could also promise Vingegaard the pink jersey, 11 stages before the Giro is done.

The Dane drove more time into his rivals on Sunday and is right where he wants to be on the rest day – within easy striking range of surprise GC leader Afonso Eulálio.

“I was happy to go and take the victory. Felix Gall showed he’s very strong,” Vingegaard said after stage 9 on Sunday. “To gain one minute and more on Jai Hindley and others today is a good thing.

“Obviously the next goal is the time trial. I’m looking forward to seeing how I go and how the others do,” Vingegaard said.

Vingegaard is in pole position for pink, and he knows it.

Here’s how the stage 10 times trial will reshape the race.

Longest grand tour TT in 10 years

Sorry to say it, but the most important stage of the Giro d’Italia so far could also be the most boring.

The Viarregio test is a throwback to a bygone age of course design. There are no modern innovations to fixate a TikTok generation on stage 10.

At 42km in length, it’s the longest grand tour TT since 2015. The Giro ruined riders’ legs and tested viewers’ patience with a 59.4km stage that year.

This supersize course is flat as you can get, and almost as straight as you can get, too.

Running north up the Tuscan coast, the route is dominated by a straightaway of some 20km. Six 90-degree turns and two 180s are the only technicalities on a TT for the big motors.

Italy’s towering talisman Ganna will be salivating at this stage like it’s a bowl of nonna’s best ragu.

A course like this leaves no place to hide. Aerodynamics and power will be everything. Other factors that can influence other TTs – say, climbing prowess or explosivity – mean nothing.

Expect average speeds in the low 50s and finishing times in the high 40s.

Huge gaps could decide final podium places

Vingegaard stands to ruin his rivals Tuesday.

The Dane and his big red Darth Vader helmet should go faster than all but one of the pink jersey pretenders.

After João Almeida withdrew and Adam Yates and Jay Vine abandoned, Thymen Arensman is the only GC rider better than Vingegaard on a TT bike.

The problem for Arensman? Despite a climbing resurgence Sunday, the diesel Dutchman won’t gain enough in Tuesday’s time trial to off-set his expected losses to Vingegaard in the most brutal high mountains of the third week.

Giro d’Italia time gaps after stage 9 (differences to Vingegaard in brackets)

1. Eulálio: GC leader
2. Vingegaard: +2:24
3. Gall: +2:59 (+0:35)
4. Hindley: +4:32 (+2:08)
5. Scaroni: +4:43: (2:19)
6. Arensman: +5:00: (+2:36)
7. Rondel: +5:01 (+2:37)
8. O’Connor: +5:03 (+2:39)
9. Pellizzari: +5:15 (+2:51)
10. Storer: +5:20 (+2:56)

Gall braces for time trial losses

Stage 10 spells doom for surprise pink jersey Eulálio. His TT skills are dire.

The Portuguese finished in the final quarter of the pack in his last two “pure” races against the clock. Only an uphill finish could spare Eulálio’s blushes when he faced off against Vingegaard more than a year ago in the Algarve – and he still lost 2 minutes in 20km.

The story’s the same for riders chasing behind Vingegaard.

Based off their previous head-to-heads, Gall could lose 5-6 seconds per kilometer against the Dane on Tuesday – and that’s a lot of bad news when multiplied by 42.

Gall acknowledged Sunday he’s braced for the worst.

“It was in the back of my head to have a bit of a gap before the TT, which is not exactly my strength,” Gall said after stage 9.

“I’ve been working on my time trial, but I think it’s more about managing it,” he continued. “I’m expecting to lose time on my opponents. I hope it’s not too much.”

The Red Bull challenge from Jai Hindley and Giulio Pellizzari could go a little better – but still not great.

Recent results suggest they could both lose around 3-5 seconds per kilometer. That’s a total of two to three minutes, ish.

One wrinkle in the TT dynamic for Vingegaard? As the leader of the climber’s classification, he’s obliged to ride in a blue skinsuit supplied by race organizers.

All the aero gains he and Visma-Lease a Bike made in perfectly optimizing his team apparel will be left in the wind tunnel.

That will disadvantage him against Arensman, sure.

But this thing won’t be some parachute. It’s not going to be baggy enough to save riders like Gall from potentially devastating losses.

A new phase of the Giro d’Italia starts after the TT

To use a cliché – The Giro d’Italia will start proper after Tuesday’s time trial.

Expect Vingegaard to swap his blue jersey for pink, or be just seconds away from snatching the maglia rosa from Eulálio.

Also, expect his current advantage over everybody but Arensman to expand significantly.

From there, Vingegaard and Visma-Lease a Bike might just engage “Mode: Tour de France.”

A couple of concise thermonuclear strikes amid a mostly conservative strategy will put Vingegaard into pink and give him the safest ride possible toward a high-summer showdown with Tadej Pogačar.

Giro d’Italia stage 10 time trial start times: