What we’re hearing about the potential Giannis Antetokounmpo trade market

So … the Milwaukee Bucks have had a good postseason.

Never mind that they’re not even in the playoffs. Let’s explain.

It has been three months since the Bucks decided to hold onto Giannis Antetokounmpo at the trade deadline, in part, because there was an internal belief that the market for his services would be even better when the summer rolled around. But it was always a calculated risk, with teams such as the Golden State Warriors, Miami Heat and Minnesota Timberwolves known to have made the kind of genuine pitches at the time that, in the end, could have proven to be better than anything that might come their way down the road.

At this rate, with so many teams that have been tied to Antetokounmpo at some point getting bounced either in the Play-In Tournament or the first round, it’s setting up to be a potential perfect storm for Phase II of these talks. Unless, of course, he surprises the masses and signals a desire to sign the four-year, $275 million extension that he’s eligible to sign on Oct. 1.

Add in that Bucks owner Jimmy Haslam provided a timeline for their plan this week, telling reporters that he expects to have clarity on this crucial matter before the June 23 draft, and it’s safe to say the Giannis talk will dominate the leaguewide conversation for the foreseeable future.

Especially after this weekend.

The NBA’s draft lottery is Sunday in Chicago, where a host of potential Antetokounmpo suitors will finally know where their first-round pick lands. That sort of intel is key in superstar discussions like these, as it crystallizes the value that each team can, and can’t, provide with their respective proposals.

It might take some time to assess which teams are the most serious on this front, as the various front offices and ownership groups unpack the deeper meaning of their demise. But at first glance, the Bucks should have very little trouble sparking another round of legitimate interest as they decide — yet again — how to proceed here.

Then there’s this reality to remember, as well: Giannis’ voice will play a pivotal part in the process. If he has a team (or two or three) he truly wants to play for, then that sort of endorsement would compel those front offices to feel comfortable putting even more on the Bucks’ table.

One last thing to remember here before we dive into all the different team dynamics: This list might get even longer after the second round. What happens if the Cleveland Cavaliers get swept by the Detroit Pistons? Or the Timberwolves, who were one of the most aggressive Antetokounmpo suitors at the deadline, can’t measure up against the Spurs? Or the Lakers, who are in a deep hole against the reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder and are known to be dreaming big this offseason? Maybe the Knicks, who are known to have piqued Antetokounmpo’s strong interest in the past, come up short of the NBA Finals mandate laid down by James Dolan in the middle of this season.

The list, starting with this group that endured early exits and has been tied to Antetokounmpo previously, goes on.

(Teams are listed in alphabetical order)

Atlanta Hawks

Playoff result: As the No. 6 seed, lost to No. 3 New York in six games

There was a time when the Hawks were seen as a likely Antetokounmpo suitor, but those times appear to have changed. As general manager Onsi Saleh seemed to signal during his end-of-season press conference, and team sources confirmed to The Athletic, the Hawks plan to be very patient with their young core and do not appear likely to pursue Antetokounmpo or any other superstar.

With 24-year-old Jalen Johnson ascending as a major building block, 25-year-old big man Onyeka Okongwu developing into a core piece, the addition of 27-year-old Nickeil Alexander-Walker and the emergence of 23-year-old defensive specialist Dyson Daniels, the Hawks (46-36) managed to finish with their best record since the 2015-16 season. There is roster work to be done, as veteran guard CJ McCollum is an unrestricted free agent and 23-year-old wing Jonathan Kuminga has a team option for next season ($24.3 million).

“We’re really excited about the future, and what holds there — from the draft to the flexibility moving forward, (and) all that stuff,” Saleh told reporters.

This prudent direction, which was reported recently by longtime NBA reporter Jake Fischer, is buoyed by the fact that they could get lucky in Sunday’s lottery. The Hawks, who have New Orleans’ first-rounder from the infamous Derik Queen deal last June, have a 9.8 percent chance of landing the No. 1 pick, and a 40.2 percent chance of being in the top four (and a 52.9 percent chance of landing between No. 7 and No. 9).

Boston Celtics

Playoff result: As the No. 2 seed, lost to No. 7 Philadelphia in seven games

Even before Jaylen Brown sparked a conversation about whether he still wants to be in Boston this week, when his online comments about this season being the “favorite season of his career” were confusing at best and controversial at worst, league sources had pegged the Celtics as a team to watch on the Antetokounmpo front.

There were signs of interest at the February trade deadline, and it would stand to reason that the postseason finish only increases the odds that the Celtics will consider anything and everything when it comes to star players. Don’t forget about the random praise that Antetokounmpo heaped upon Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla back in early April while discussing the Bucks’ struggles. But Brown’s comments, not surprisingly, added fuel to this fire around the Association.

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They were widely seen as strange for two very obvious reasons. For starters, the first-round loss simply wasn’t up to the Celtics standards, as it marked the first time in franchise history they gave up a 3-1 playoff series lead. Secondly, the vast majority of this season that he loved so much came with Jayson Tatum out while recovering from his Achilles tendon tear and with Brown handling lead-role duties all by himself for once (and likely earning a fair share of top five MVP votes along the way).

It doesn’t take elite detective work to draw certain conclusions from his stance.

Then came the comments from Hall of Famer Tracy McGrady, who said that Brown was experiencing frustration that “lies deeply in the organization” on a podcast with his cousin and fellow Hall of Famer, Vince Carter. Yet there has been significant pushback on this growing narrative ever since, with Celtics president of basketball operations Brad Stevens telling reporters on Wednesday that he has no knowledge of Brown being frustrated and Brown saying, “If it was up to me, I could play in Boston the next 10 years.” A team source reiterated as much, indicating that there were no internal issues between the two sides. A league source close to Brown shared a similar message.

Brown, it’s worth noting, is eligible for a two-year, $142 million extension in July and has three seasons left on his current deal (and a combined $183 million).

But even without this backdrop, the fact remains that the Celtics have a long history of chasing superstars that should inform the discussion around them. They’re working toward a league-record 19th title, and this current group didn’t look capable of winning it anytime soon in the playoffs.

Golden State Warriors

Playoff result: As the No. 10 seed, lost to No. 8 Phoenix in the second Play-In game

The Warriors would still love nothing more than to bring Antetokounmpo to town and, eventually, sign him to a long-term extension to play alongside Steph Curry in his golden years. But there’s a reason they were trying so hard to get a deal done at the deadline, as they were well aware that there would be a lot more competition for Antetokounmpo’s services if this situation got pushed to the summer. Alas, here they are.

That doesn’t mean there’s no hope, but it would help their possible proposal if the lottery balls landed in their favor. They have a 9.4 percent chance of being in the top four (including a 2 percent chance at No. 1), but a 77.6 percent chance of picking 11th (and 12.6 percent chance at No. 12).

Houston Rockets

Playoff result: As the No. 5 seed, lost to the No. 4 Lakers in six games

The Rockets’ demise against the Lakers made it quite clear that they need more on this roster to elevate to true title contender status. The question, as we chronicled recently, is whether that comes by way of a blockbuster deal for someone like Antetokounmpo or, given all the injuries they endured this season, by reuniting with the veterans (Kevin Durant, Fred VanVleet, Steven Adams) who were sidelined when the postseason rolled around.

As rival executives often point out, Houston has the sort of elite young talent (namely Alperen Şengün and Amen Thompson) that could serve as the foundation of a promising pitch. The question now is whether the Rockets, with one more guaranteed season left on Durant’s deal, feel compelled to speed things up by way of another superstar or remain patient with their younger prospects.

Miami Heat

Playoff result: As the No. 10 seed, lost to No. 9 Charlotte in the Play-In game

While missing the playoffs for the first time since 2019 might suggest the Heat are more than just one star away from title contention, Pat Riley made it clear the Heat would like to be front and center in any discussions surrounding Antetokounmpo’s next team once again.

In his end of the season interview, Riley told reporters that the team would be “aggressive as hell” in the offseason and getting help for Bam Adebayo was his top priority. Some lottery luck would help significantly in this regard.

The Heat were one of the most interested teams in Antetokounmpo at this past season’s trade deadline, but ultimately, the Bucks didn’t want to make a move with them. Would they reconsider that stance if the Heat’s 4.78 percent chance of jumping into the top four of this year’s draft hit? Conversely, would the Heat still want to move their first-round pick if it were in the top four? There have been rumblings for quite some time now that Antetokounmpo would be open to the idea of a Heat relocation, and it doesn’t hurt that he wouldn’t have to pay state taxes in Florida (ditto for the Magic and the Rockets in Texas).

Orlando Magic

Playoff result: As the No. 8 seed, lost to No. 1 Detroit in seven games

This young Magic core that was so inconsistent in the regular season showed some signs of life in the playoffs, jumping out to a 3-1 lead before collapsing against the Pistons. But the result was an undeniable disappointment, with the severe lack of shooting proving to be too much to overcome.

Therein lies the irony of their possible Antetokounmpo interest. The shooting woes wouldn’t be fixed if they found a way to land him, but he would provide an upgrade in every other department. Per a team source, there have been no discussions at this point about pursuing Antetokounmpo this summer. It is worth noting, however, that the Magic inquired about the possibility heading into the February trade deadline (a team source confirmed a Hoopshype report from late April indicating as much).

For the Bucks, the potential allure of a Magic deal is the prospect of landing the likes of 23-year-old former No. 1 pick Paolo Banchero (five years and a combined $230 million on his deal, including a player option in the 2030-31 season). The history between Antetokounmpo and the Magic’s front office is worth remembering, too, as president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman was the assistant general manager of the Bucks when Antetokounmpo was drafted in 2013, and John Hammond, who is the Magic’s senior advisor of basketball operations, was the general manager who took him with the 15th pick.

Portland Trail Blazers

Playoff result: As the No. 7 seed, lost to No. 2 San Antonio in five games

Last summer, the Trail Blazers featured heavily in the fake trades built for Antetokounmpo, but not as the team Antetokounmpo would suit up for next. Instead, Portland was used regularly as a potential third team in the trade packages built for Antetokounmpo because the Bucks sent control of their first-round picks from 2028 to 2030 in the trade for Damian Lillard before the 2023-24 season.

But now with owner Tom Dundon running the show, the Trail Blazers have become a team that might be interested in making a splash and fast-forwarding their build by vying for the right to become Antetokounmpo’s next team. While that might not have made much sense at the start of last summer, Portland took another step forward this season with its first playoff trip since 2021 and looks poised to take another step next season.

Twenty-five-year-old forward Deni Avdija made his first All-Star game. Jrue Holiday, one of Antetokounmpo’s favorite teammates, joined the roster last offseason. And Damian Lillard, the Greek Freak’s running mate for two seasons in Milwaukee, will be ready to return from the Achilles tear that would eventually end his time with the Bucks.

Yet there is significant skepticism among rival executives that Antetokounmpo would welcome this option, as he is believed to be interested in joining a true title-contender. The Trail Blazers, even with him, would likely struggle to reach that tier. As these playoffs have shown so far, joining a top-tier team in the East would be the wiser way to reach that goal. That sentiment comes up frequently in leaguewide discussions about what Antetokounmpo might want, as it’s widely believed he’d prefer to play for an Eastern Conference team.

Toronto Raptors

Playoff result: As the No. 5 seed, fell to No. 4 Cleveland in seven games

When Masai Ujiri — the new head man in Dallas — ran the front office for the Raptors, Toronto was often linked to Antetokounmpo in trade rumors. With Ujiri’s fearless approach to pursuing superstar talents and his shared African connections with the Bucks superstar, the Raptors always ended up on the list of potential suitors for Antetokounmpo.

Bobby Webster, Ujiri’s longtime no. 2 in Toronto, now runs things for the Raptors and it might be time for him to think about the kind of all-in move his former boss would make.

In head coach Darko Rajaković’s third season, the Raptors made the playoffs for the first time since 2022 and pushed the Cleveland Cavaliers to the brink of elimination, but came up short in the first round. While that might be considered a strong first step toward contention for some teams, the Raptors are further along in their build than you might realize.

The Raptors are already on the hook for over $180 million in salary for their top eight players for the 2026-27 season, which means they’re already over the projected salary cap of $166 million and barreling towards the luxury tax and apron lines as well. Their salary commitments suggest they plan to be a playoff team, and while they might like their group that just had a strong postseason showing, trading for a two-time MVP could speed up the process.