These 7 Things Can Stop Jonas Vingegaard Winning the Giro d’Italia

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Jim Cotton

Updated May 4, 2026 05:15PM

Jonas Vingegaard is the 10-star favorite for the Giro d’Italia. We get it.

The three-time grand tour winner is head, shoulders, and heart rate strap above a GC field that’s been decapitated by a late wave of sickness and injury.

But the Giro ain’t so simple. The Dane’s Giro d’Italia debut won’t be a cakewalk.

The Italian tour races to a different beat from the Tour de France and Vuelta a España.

As Isaac del Toro discovered last year, it’s the grand tour of upsets and plot twists. The 2025 pink jersey Simon Yates learned that the hard way, seven years earlier.

And Vingegaard has got more than three weeks in May to worry about. A date with Tadej Pogačar in the second installment of his grand tour double looms a few months later at the Tour de France.

The shadow of the Tour will influence every watt Vingegaard makes and every decision Visma-Lease a Bike takes.

Vingegaard has rightfully earned the status of corsa rosa super-favorite. The absense from the race of Pogačar, Primož Roglič, and Remco Evenepoel makes that status absolute and undisputed.

This GC power vacuum also makes the Giro d’Italia a race of opportunity.

Prestigious podium positions – or even a win – are available to riders way down the hierarchy.

Italian hope Giulio Pellizzari, people’s favorite Egan Bernal, and the stealthy Austrian Felix Gall could all ride into pink. Even Pogi’s superdomestique Adam Yates has a chance in a grand tour that will orbit around just one rider.

Visma-Lease a Bike shouldn’t be photoshopping Vingegaard into a maglia rosa just yet. Here are 3 factors and 4 riders who could deliver the Giro’s latest plot twist.

The oddities of the Giro and the shadow of the Tour

1. The Giro d’Italia is not a normal grand tour

Vingegaard is one of the best grand tour racers of the era. But the Giro is a different beast to the Tour and Vuelta. (Photo: Gruber Images)

The Giro is a wild and weird beast compared to the Tour de France and Vuelta a España.

It’s lost some of its mythical personality in the age of VeloViewer, carbs, and altitude camps, but it’s still plagued by terrible weather, terrible roads, and tactical anomalies.

GC teams are typically weaker at the Giro than they are at the Tour [see point 3, ed], meaning breakaways have a better chance at making it stick. In a race that heralds unsung talents, teams chasing pink let breaks go at their own risk.

In short, the Giro is a melting pot of oddities that can cook up madness. The race’s recent history of GC upsets proves the race isn’t over until you taste prosecco in Rome.

Many riders have been “Giroed,” from Del Toro and Yates to Kruijswijk and Chaves.

As a Giro rookie, Vingegaard is yet to experience the corsa rosa’s cruel charms. His packed palmarès isn’t enough to ensure pink.

2. Vingegaard races in the shadow of the Tour de France

Pogacar Vingegaard — Will Vingegaard ride defensive at the Giro to save his legs for the Tour? (Photo: Gruber Images)

Vingegaard’s Giro d’Italia is framed in the context of the Tour de France. The 29-year-old’s grand tour double and the short turnaround between the Giro and Tour will influence V-LAB’s strategy from Bulgaria to Rome.

When Pogačar made history with his Giro-Tour double in 2024, he obliterated the Italian tour from day 2 to day 21. He’s Pogačar – he can get away with it.

Don’t expect Vingegaard to follow the Pogi playbook.

Vingegaard is more likely to pile on an advantage early – maybe in the first summit finish on Blockhaus (stage 7) and the race’s only time trial (stage 10) – before he plays defense in the final week.

Riding the third week on “eco mode” would kickstart recovery for the Tour.

But being conservative is fraught with risk.

How many minutes of a GC advantage might Vingegaard consider safe? What breaks does Visma let go?

In the Giro, no GC lead is “safe.”

3. Does Visma have the depth?

Visma-Lease a Bike will have one of the strongest teams in the Giro, but it won't have the depth Vingegaard benefits from at the Tour. — Visma-Lease a Bike will have one of the strongest teams in the race, but it won’t have the depth Vingegaard benefits from at the Tour. (Photo: Gruber Images)

The impact of Vingegaard’s Giro-Tour double also ripples through to the team selected to support him.

Yes, Sepp Kuss, Wilco Kelderman, and Victor Campenaerts will make V-LAB one of the strongest teams of the Giro. But this is no Tour de France selection.

Wout van Aert, Matteo Jorgenson, and Christophe Laporte are saving their legs for later.

Rival super teams Red Bull and UAE are taking teams as strong, if not stronger, than Visma’s eight bees.

How much work might Vingegaard have to do on his own?

The outsiders

4. The home stud: Giulio Pellizzari (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe), 22

Pellizzari is in hot form and carries his nation’s hopes. (Photo: MARCO BERTORELLO / AFP via Getty Images)

Giulio Pellizzari will be in the hearts of every nonna and on the banners of every roadside tifosi this month. Italy’s cycling pride sits on his scrawny shoulders. The nation hasn’t won its home tour since Vincenzo Nibali brought home pink in 2016.

Pellizzari is already being hailed in Italian media as “the next Nibali.” He’s got the potential to match Messina’s Shark.

And Red Bull’s rising 22-year-old could follow the retired legend into the Giro d’Italia’s roll of honor.

He’s got Aleksander Vlasov and former Giro winner Jai Hindley for henchmen and the momentum of third at Tirreno-Adriatico and victory at the Giro tune-up race, Tour of the Alps.

And while Pellizzari has never hit a grand tour podium in his short career, sixth-place finishes at both the Giro and Vuelta shows the kid don’t miss.

Pellizzari is one of the most exciting new talents in the WorldTour, and he’s learning fast.

Vingegaard will rate him Rival No.1.

Pellizzari’s recent highlights:

2026 Tour of the Alps: GC win, 2 x stage wins
2026 Tirreno Adriatico: 3rd on GC
2026 Volta Valenciana: 3rd on GC
2025 Vuelta a España: 6th, 1 x stage win
2025 Giro d’Italia: 6th

5. A comeback king? Egan Bernal (Netcompany Ineos), 29

Bernal is in his best form for years and an outside favorite for his second Giro victory after first winning in 2021. (Photo: Tim de Waele/Getty Images)

Is Egan Bernal finally “back” after his devastating 2022 crash?

Sort of.

“Bernalito” is still not the rider who won two grand tours in three years at the turn of this decade, but he’s the best he’s been in years – and one of the best of the Giro’s off-kilter GC field.

Bernal hinted last year at the Giro and Vuelta that he’s still got it.

7th at the Giro and a stage win at the Vuelta showed hints of a revival, and Bernal didn’t slow down in the off-season, either. 2nd behind Pellizzari at Tour of the Alps and 5th at Liège shows he’s within range of his second Giro victory, five years after the first.

Bernal and his rebranded team Netcompany-Ineos know how to win grand tours.

And with Thymen Arensman at his flanks, the 2026 Giro is Bernal’s best chance since he broke himself on the back of a bus.

Bernal’s recent highlights:

2026 Liège-Bastogne-Liège: 5th
2026 Tour of the Alps: 2nd
2025 Vuelta a España: 17th on GC, 1 x stage win
2025 Giro d’Italia: 7th on GC

6. The wiley veteran: Adam Yates (UAE Emirates-XRG), 33

Adam Yates gets a rare opportunity to race a grand tour with his own ambition. (Photo: Dario Belingheri/Getty Images)

Shock! UAE Emirates-XRG isn’t top favorite for a grand tour, for once.

Isaac del Toro is injured. João Almeida is out with sickness.

But Pogačar’s superteam hasn’t been decisively torpedoed. Mountain superdomestique Adam Yates and climbing king Jay Vine mean UAE will remain a thorn in Visma-Lease a Bike’s side at the Giro d’Italia.

Yates will likely lead the team’s pink ambition.

Sure, Yates hasn’t raced a grand tour for himself since he left Ineos in 2022 and was off the bubble last year.

But the veteran Brit knows his way around a grand tour.

Yates hit the top-6 at the Tour de France two years in a row, even while pulling for Pogačar. He’s raced 16 grand tours, finished them all, and hit the top-12 a total of 9 times.

UAE Emirates is desperate to win a grand tour in the absence of Pogačar. Team brass would relish the irony if it’s the Slovenian’s long-time domesque who does it.

Yates’ recent highlights:

2026 O Gran Camino – GC win, 1 x stage win
2026 Tour of Oman – 3rd on GC

7. The guy we forget: Felix Gall (Decathlon CMA-CGM), 28

Gall – he’s the guy who sneaks to the top of GC without you even realizing. (Photo: Tim de Waele/Getty Images)

Felix Gall, remember him? The Austrian climber is the guy who nearly always sneaks into the top end of GC without you even noticing.

The anonymous Austrian leads the broad pack of riders with a very distant chance at winning the Giro.

Riders like him, Derek Gee-West, Arensman, and Hindley are outside bets whose hopes might be pinned on a touch of Giro madness or the misfortune of others.

Gall is the best of this chasing bunch.

Team Decathlon’s “Mr. Consistent” has the capacity to hang with Vingegaard in the Alps, and he should have USA’s pocket climber Matthew Riccitello for company.

The paucity of time trial KMs at this Giro d’Italia – just 42 – will also give Gall hope. His podium hopes rest on him limiting his losses against the clock in this stage 10 test.

Gall’s recent highlights

2026 Volta a Catalunya: 6th on GC
2026 UAE Tour: 5th on GC
2025 Vuelta a España: 8th on GC
2025 Tour de France: 5th on GC