Major upsets for the Boston Celtics and Denver Nuggets significantly altered the championship picture after the first round of the NBA playoffs. Two of the last three NBA champions unexpectedly falling in the opening series created an even larger gap from the top two favorites, the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs, to the rest of the league.
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The Philadelphia 76ers’ upset of Boston highlighted the chaotic Eastern Conference, where three of the four first-round series went the full seven games. Boston’s elimination opened the door for the New York Knicks as the conference’s new favorite (and third most likely to win the title).
The latest odds for the NBA Finals winner see the NBA championship still going through the Western Conference. But a volatile Eastern Conference is still worth watching as the second round continues.
Thunder, Spurs create separation
Advancing with ease to the second round, the Oklahoma City Thunder (-145 on DraftKings, -140 on BetMGM) and San Antonio Spurs (+350 on BetMGM, +370 on DraftKings) are well ahead of the rest of the West. Entering the playoffs, the Thunder were +135, and the Spurs were +450.
With Boston and Denver out, New York (+850 on DraftKings, +900 on BetMGM) is the only other contender shorter than 17-to-1 to win the title.
In its quest to repeat, Oklahoma City swept the Phoenix Suns while getting over a week of rest in the process. The additional time off allows Thunder forward Jalen Williams even more recovery time after suffering a Grade 1 left hamstring strain during Game 2 against Phoenix.
With Williams close to a healthy return, MVP favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Oklahoma City remain heavy favorites over the Los Angeles Lakers in the second round. The Thunder dismantled Los Angeles in the regular season, sweeping 4-0 and winning by an average of 29.3 points. That regular-season sweep comes with an asterisk as Luka Dončić only played one full game out of those four. Then again, Dončić isn’t healthy now.
The Lakers did an admirable job eliminating the favored Houston Rockets in the first round. LeBron James and company outlasted Houston without Dončić and with Austin Reaves only playing the final two games of the series.
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Dončić’s health and potential return are still a lingering question mark. Plus, a rusty Reaves is still returning to form. It might take a throwback series from James for Los Angeles to slow down the defending champions.
It took five games for San Antonio to knock off the Portland Trail Blazers. Now, the Spurs face the Minnesota Timberwolves — fresh off an impressive first-round upset of Denver.
Although San Antonio is a heavy favorite in that series, the advantage in playoff experience and physicality sides with the Timberwolves. Advancing to the Western Conference finals in each of the last two seasons, Minnesota won’t be fazed against Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs. The battle-tested Timberwolves frontcourt of Rudy Gobert, Julius Randle and Jaden McDaniels is an intriguing matchup against Wembanyama.
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Health is also a major factor in this series. The T’Wolves await the return of shooting guard Anthony Edwards from a knee injury. Minnesota is already without Donte DiVincenzo for the duration of the postseason — putting even more of a spotlight on if and when Edwards returns.
New York the new favorite in the East
Boston’s unexpected early departure opened the door for the rest of the Eastern Conference, with the New York Knicks perhaps benefiting the most.
The favorite to win the East for the first time since early February, New York finds itself back in the driver’s seat after closing out the Atlanta Hawks in six games in the first round.
Hitting the gas and closing out Atlanta with multiple blowouts, New York was the only team in the East to advance before the series went seven games. An extra-long weekend of recovery time before the second round gives the Knicks a small advantage over the rest of the conference.
New York elevated its defense to put away Atlanta. In the process, the Knicks looked like the most complete team in the East. Jalen Brunson continues his stellar postseason play. Hot shooting from OG Anunoby and improved defensive effort from Karl-Anthony Towns make New York the Eastern Conference frontrunner.
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Although many fans were clamoring for a Celtics and Knicks playoff rematch with a healthy Jayson Tatum, the No. 7 seed Philadelphia 76ers had other ideas. Philadelphia finally found its playoff footing with the return of superstar center Joel Embiid and looks like a formidable opponent for New York in the next series.
If the 76ers can stay healthy, Embiid and guard Tyrese Maxey form a dangerous one-two punch while veteran Paul George and rookie VJ Edgecombe provide perimeter stability to match New York’s.
Surviving a seven-game battle, the Detroit Pistons furiously rallied to avoid losing to the No. 8 seed Orlando Magic in the first round. The East’s top seed overcame a 3-1 series deficit and a 24-point road deficit during Game 6 in a memorable series comeback.
Cade Cunningham answered pre-playoff concerns about returning from injury with a monster series against Orlando. Cunningham and the Pistons played with impressive intensity while down in the series to rally against the Magic.
It also took the Cleveland Cavaliers seven games to advance past the Toronto Raptors. Entering the playoffs at +1400 odds, Cleveland dropped in title odds despite advancing and is a small underdog in the series against Detroit.
While Cleveland deserves credit for advancing past Toronto, physicality from the Raptors gave the Cavaliers problems and could serve as a blueprint for the rugged Pistons ahead of the second-round matchup.