Australia gets one worthwhile snow event from Friday night through Sunday night, with the best totals centered on Tasmania and much smaller, elevation-sensitive accumulations across Victoria and New South Wales. Confidence is highest in that Friday night through Sunday night stretch, when guidance is aligned on a windy storm followed by a mostly dry, milder week. Most resorts remain closed, so this is mainly a snowpack-building shot rather than something that changes near-term lift access, and the mainland snow will be limited by marginal snow levels.
Snow reaches Tasmania first on Friday night, spreads into Victoria overnight, and reaches the New South Wales resorts during Saturday, then tapers Sunday evening. The guidance is converging well on that timing and on a windy west to southwest flow, but there is still some spread on storm intensity and especially snow levels. Snow levels generally sit near 700-1,200 meters in Tasmania, 1,200-1,700 meters in Victoria, and 1,450-1,850 meters in New South Wales, so the mainland outcome stays very elevation dependent. That supports about 20-26 cm at Mount Mawson, roughly 4-6 cm across the best Victorian peaks, and only 1-4 cm around the New South Wales resorts. Snow quality also looks fairly dense, with SLRs mostly in the 4-8 range and only brief 8-11 pockets late in the storm, while gusts push into the 90-130 km/h range on the mainland and 120-150 km/h in Tasmania.
From Monday through Thursday, the guidance converges strongly on a mostly dry pattern across the region. New snow should be negligible in that stretch, while temperatures rebound after cold starts and climb into about 7-10 C on the mainland high country and the low teens in Tasmania. Winds ease back compared with the weekend storm but do not go calm, with periodic ridge-top gusts still reaching around 60-100 km/h. Whatever falls this weekend should firm up overnight, then soften faster during the afternoon as the air mass moderates.
The next possible change arrives late Friday into Saturday, but confidence drops off noticeably because the models diverge on timing, intensity, snow levels, and wind strength. In the extended range, GFS, AIFS, and GDPS are the snowier camp, while ECMWF and ICON are flatter, so the most realistic outcome is another light to locally moderate refresh rather than a broad storm cycle. If that wave materializes, Tasmania has the best chance for 5-10 cm, southern Victoria could manage around 0-5 cm, and New South Wales likely sees little or no accumulation. Treat that late-period signal as speculative for now.
Resort Forecast Totals (Fri Apr 10 – Sun Apr 12)
- Mount Mawson – 20-26 cm
- Mount Hotham – 5-6 cm
- Mount Buller – 5-6 cm
- Falls Creek – 4-5 cm
- Charlotte Pass – 3-4 cm
- Mount Baw Baw – 2-3 cm
- Perisher – 1-2 cm
- Thredbo – 1-2 cm
- Selwyn Snowfields – 1 cm
- Ben Lomond – 0 cm