With Luka Dončić’s injury, the Los Angeles Lakers saw their odds balloon to a rather stunning number. At least for a franchise as storied and still star-studded as L.A.
Dončić and LeBron James have never been this big of long shots on their own — and even paired up, a 500-to-1 title bet feels much closer to a donation than a wager.
But still, those huge odds and star power can justify a sprinkle, right?
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That’s how far the Lakers’ prospects have fallen, after receiving that devastating injury news within a few days of a 13-1 stretch that had propelled them to the Western Conference’s 3-seed and generated genuine excitement among their fans.
Instead, it is now gloom and doom with the playoffs 10 days away. Dončić will likely miss at least a couple more weeks with a grade 2 hamstring tear, and Austin Reaves is out even longer with a grade 2 soft tissue strain to his left oblique.
“The Lakers look like the free-square opponent in the Western Conference playoff battle,” professional bettor Chris Macero told The Athletic via text message.
L.A. is seemingly now relegated to relying on 41-year-old James to carry a supporting cast in the first round against either the Minnesota Timberwolves, Houston Rockets or Denver Nuggets. Oddsmakers are dismissive, posting title odds between 400-to-1 and 500-to-1 across the market.
“Maybe he can for a series. Maybe … but LeBron also has his own aches and pains,” DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told The Athletic. “Plus, Luka’s injury is not something that goes away quickly, so I don’t know if he’ll be anywhere close to 100 percent if he returns.”
With three regular-season games remaining, the Lakers tenuously hold the fourth seed and can fall no lower than the fifth. In all likelihood, they will land the 5-seed and face the Rockets. Houston would have home court and be around a -1200 series favorite.
Meanwhile, Dončić is traveling to Europe for specialized medical treatment intended to expedite his return. That obviously impacts the odds and L.A.’s chances. However, given the nature of a hamstring injury, everything remains speculative.
The first-round schedule is spread out, and James does have a knack for optimizing rotation players in unusual circumstances. I could definitely see the Lakers stealing a game in Houston with the likes of Rui Hachimura, Marcus Smart and Luke Kennard all outperforming their season averages. It’s not that far-fetched to envision James orchestrating an upset or maybe two, if Dončić is then able to recover and assume the reins. But to win an entire series as the lone wolf?
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“Absolutely not,” Macero said. “Dallas had just lost 14 in a row at home, and suddenly they woke up and beat the Lakers [in L.A.’s first game without Dončić and Reaves] with Cooper Flagg, the obvious option, getting 45 points. If they couldn’t shut down a 19-year-old, how are they going to stop playoff Ant (Anthony Edwards), (Kevin) Durant or (Alperen) Sengun?”
I would actually bet L.A. on the +750 series price against Houston, given the fickle Rockets have a knack for playing down to their opponent. Of all the current playoff teams, Houston is tied for the most losses (eight) against teams with a losing record. Plus, their offense can rely too heavily on Durant, and defenses anticipate that in crunch time, given they are 1-7 in overtime and 5-9 in games decided by three points or less.
Even if the Lakers do advance, and as tempting as it is, cashing a 500-to-1 ticket would still likely require them to defeat both the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs. That’s just not happening, especially with the injury uncertainty.
So my only wager would be the Lakers on that big underdog price in the first round, since it would only require injury luck for a couple of games.
The Lakers created massive buzz with a 15-2 record in March — with wins over the New York Knicks, Nuggets, Timberwolves, Orlando Magic, Miami Heat, Rockets (twice) and Cleveland Cavaliers, while only falling on the road to the Nuggets and Detroit Pistons.
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That stretch was by far their best this season. Earlier in the year, analytics depicted a team that struggled with Dončić, James and Reaves all playing together. However, that March run seemed to reflect a team that had finally worked out the kinks.
“They played better and beat some competitive teams when they had their roles defined, but they still had their biggest trouble against young athletic teams,” Jeff Sherman, SuperBook vice president of risk management and head NBA oddsmaker, told The Athletic. “They were our biggest liability, but even if they were healthy entering the playoffs, I wouldn’t have that much concern.”
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Their Western Conference odds at BetMGM had lowered to 18-to-1, and title odds reached 60-to-1. They were considered a distant contender as the eighth championship favorite — before the injuries snowballed and created this predicament.
The Lakers only have limited examples of LeBron-led lineups without Dončić or Reaves, but will feature many this final week. I anticipate measured effort and for head coach JJ Redick to tinker with various combinations.
For context on the Lakers’ long-shot odds, past Masters champions Bubba Watson and Zach Johnson each have 500-to-1 odds to win another green jacket this weekend — higher odds than 70 other guys. Perhaps James, a new golf aficionado, can channel his “course knowledge” of the first round and extend the season long enough for Dončić to return.
But a storybook ending like Tiger Woods in 2019 is even too far-fetched for the NBA legend that shares his birthday.