California’s main ski weather story is a weekend Sierra storm that starts warm and wind-affected on Friday, then turns colder and more productive from Friday night through Sunday. Confidence is strongest from Friday through Monday morning, when the open Sierra mountains should stack up meaningful fresh snow and the quality improves as colder air settles in. After that, next week trends drier and milder before a smaller, less certain chance at a minor Sierra refresher late in the period.
Friday afternoon through Saturday evening is the core of the storm, and guidance is converging well on the timing of that push, the falling snow levels, and a windy first half of the event. Snow levels generally start around 7,000 to 8,000 feet on Friday, so Palisades Tahoe’s lower mountain looks wet at first while Kirkwood and Mammoth hold snow better from the outset. By Friday night and Saturday, snow levels crash to roughly 3,000 to 5,000 feet and the whole open Sierra turns solidly wintry. Early snow will be dense with SLRs mostly 5 to 10, then it improves to more moderate and locally lighter snow with SLRs closer to 10 to 16 as the colder air deepens. Exposed ridges look roughest on Friday, with gusts commonly 40 to 60 mph and locally higher around Mt. Rose.
Guidance still diverges on exact intensity, especially around Tahoe and the east side, but it keeps the same ranking of the open resorts: Kirkwood leads, Palisades Tahoe and Mammoth follow with solid storm totals, and Mt. Rose stays lighter and windier. The steadiest snowfall rates are centered on Friday night into Saturday, then taper to lingering showers late Saturday night through Monday morning as winds ease and surface conditions improve. That should make Sunday the best-quality day of the cycle at the open Sierra resorts after the denser Friday start. Southern California is much less impressive, with snow levels hovering near 6,500 feet through the weekend and only a minor coating near Mount Baldy, which is already closed.
Monday afternoon through Thursday looks mostly dry, cooler at first, and then gradually softer and more springlike. The guidance is more tightly clustered on that break than it is on weekend snowfall details, so confidence is fairly good in lighter winds, cold mornings after the storm, and daytime temperatures climbing back into the 30s and 40s on the open Sierra slopes by midweek. Confidence drops again late next weekend: most solutions keep California largely dry, while a minority of guidance tries to brush the Sierra with a small refresher. The realistic call for now is just a low-end chance for a few inches late Saturday into Sunday, not another major cycle.
Resort Forecast Totals (Fri Apr 10 – Mon Apr 13)
- Kirkwood – 29-45 in
- Bear Valley – 26-41 in
- Dodge Ridge – 23-36 in
- Sugar Bowl – 20-31 in
- Palisades Tahoe – 20-31 in
- Mammoth – 16-25 in
- Northstar – 12-18 in
- Heavenly – 11-18 in
- Mt. Rose – 8-13 in
- Diamond Peak – 7-11 in
- Mount Baldy – 3-5 in