Over the past few weeks, several new Topps baseball and basketball releases have hit the market that we haven’t had a chance to dive into here. Topps is flexing its new NBA license with some solid products, and there are a couple baseball highlights (and lowlights) to recap as well.
Here’s my math on the print run numbers (full explanation on how I calculate these numbers can be found in previous deep dives) and honest assessments of five recent Topps releases:
- 2025-26 Topps Finest Basketball: A return to form for a historic brand
- 2026 Topps Series 1 Baseball Celebration boxes: Now the best buy for Series 1 (which is a low bar)
- 2025 Bowman’s Best: Good option for prospectors and autograph collectors
- 2025-26 Cosmic Chrome Basketball: Fun visuals and rare inserts likely to command big value
- 2025 Transcendent Baseball: Stay away
Read on for analysis on each set.
2025-26 Topps Finest Basketball
See full set checklist, odds, and breakdown.
Finest has always lived in an interesting space in the product hierarchy. It’s usually produced in more modest quantities than flagship Chrome releases, yet carries a lineage that goes back even further than Topps Chrome itself. The brand debuted in 1993 with Finest Baseball and Basketball, introducing Refractors to the hobby and permanently changing the landscape. It remained a staple all the way through 2008-09, when Topps lost the NBA license to Panini.
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Following attempts at unlicensed versions of Finest Basketball, the once again fully licensed 2025-26 edition finally has a legitimate opportunity to be relevant again. Here’s what the math looks like:
Total Cards in Product: 3,681,000
This is a fairly low production run, smaller than most Chrome sets, and landing very close to 2025 Finest Baseball (3.84m cards). For additional context, 2024-25 Finest Basketball, despite being unlicensed, came in at 3,116,060 cards, putting this year’s release about 18 percent higher.
Total production by format:
Hobby: 58,567 boxes (7,321 cases)
Breaker’s Delight: 16,700 boxes (2,088 cases)
Value Map: It probably doesn’t make much sense to anchor value metrics like dollar per card or dollar per parallel to Topps’ $480 pre-order price, as boxes have since moved into the $800-plus range. That’s just the reality of licensed NBA chromium products right now.
For context, the closest comparison is Topps Chrome NBA. On a per-box experience level, Finest is going to feel more loaded. Finest Hobby boxes add an extra autograph, roughly double the numbered cards, comparable parallel volume and additional tier-based chase structures compared to flagship Chrome. Out of a 60-card box, nearly half the contents will be inserts, parallels, or autographs in some form, yet Chrome Hobby boxes are selling for more at around $1,000 now. Finest autos may not command quite the same resale strength as Chrome autos, which might explain the gap between sealed box prices.
Word of warning: Pay close attention when buying individual Finest cards as they can look very similar to the unlicensed versions of previous years.
Heads up, collectors.
If you’re shopping the new Finest case hits, especially The Man, be careful. Last year’s unlicensed version looks VERY similar to the new release, but they are completely different animals with very different values.
Some sellers are even listing 2024-25… pic.twitter.com/JOUEEGpi96— SlabSquatch Sports Cards (@WaxMetrix) February 27, 2026
Conclusions: Finest is back in a big way. It’s a significantly stronger product than recent offerings like Midnight or Three. This is a well-crafted set with a strong pedigree.
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If there’s a clear weakness, it has to be the autograph subsets. I could do without the multiple 50+ name auto checklists. There are plenty of names that will fall flat, which can be a bummer from a box at this price point. That’s just math, though. They can’t all be superstars. On the flip side, the Masters Autos checklist is absolutely stacked.
And better late than never, I have to mention: Luka Doncic is in a Topps licensed product for the first time. While he doesn’t have autographs here, he appears in all three tiers of the base set and is a staple in the three scarce insert sets: The Man, Aura, and Headliners. The Headliners card in particular should be a monster chase, both because of the short but phenomenal checklist and because collectors can’t get enough of the big heads. Big head cards pull weight. They always do.
Welcome to the Finest redemption tour.
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2026 Topps Series 1 Celebration Boxes
See full checklist, odds and breakdown.
At first glance, this might look like just another novelty retail offering. In reality, Celebration boxes are a legitimate contender in the retail landscape and offer a solid option for those looking for value in the ocean that is Series 1.
Updated total cards in product (including Celebration Mega boxes): 558,065,504
This is up from 508,957,904 before adding Celebration Megas. The additional format added almost 50 million new cards to the mix. Celebration Megas in total represent about 9 percent of total card production of 2026 Series 1.
Updated base cards of each player: 1,380,028 (up from 1,281,202 each)
Total production of Celebration Mega boxes:
2026 Series 1: 258,900 boxes (12,945 cases)
2025 Series 1: 125,052 boxes (6,253 cases)
Year over year: +107 percent
This is unquestionably a major production increase, but it should not shock anyone. Celebration Megas replaced Opening Day last year as a fun, kid-friendly twist on Series 1 with its focus on team mascot cards and, by most accounts, was a runaway success. Demand was strong, the reception was positive, and Topps responded the only way manufacturers ever do when something works: they made more of it. Even with the added supply, this format still goes toe-to-toe with Series 1 Hanger boxes and may very well surpass them as the best retail value in the product landscape.
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These Celebration boxes feel very similar to the Target Black Friday Blasters from the recent NBA Flagship. Those had a production run approaching 350,000 boxes and were designed for a single-day retail event. They were loaded with unique parallels and chase content, and they sold out quickly. That alone told us demand massively exceeded supply.
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Now compare that to these Celebration boxes, of which there are 33.5 percent fewer produced. They are one of the best retail formats for pulling many different parallels and most inserts. This includes rare, highly sought-after inserts like Homefield Advantage, Heavy Lumber, All Aces and All Kings. Additionally, there are entire subsets of inserts and parallels that can only be found in Celebration Boxes. These include case-hit level and tougher subsets like Dugout Peeks, Walk This Way, and Hidden Mascots, as well as elusive Mascot Autographs and Dynasty Auto Patches. The biggest bummer I noticed is that the wildly popular “Big Heads” are no longer included. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: collectors love oversized craniums. I’m shocked Topps nixed those from this product.
Regardless, these are quite a bit better than typical Series 1 Mega boxes, and overall perform better than Hangers as the best retail format available.
Hit Rates:
Autos: Should fall one in every 20.9 boxes (essentially one per case of 20 boxes on average). Autos are slightly tougher to pull in these than in regular Megas, which produce a rate of 1:18.5 boxes.
Parallels/box: 11.7 (this represents the most parallels per box of any format, even more than Jumbos, though seven of them will be base Confetti parallels).
Inserts/box: 44.5 (that is not a typo — Celebration boxes offer many of the usual regular retail inserts as well as their own checklist of different inserts, with three of them being case hit level or rarer. You will see roughly three inserts per pack.
Numbered Cards: fall one in 1.3 boxes. Not quite one per box, but close. Most boxes should produce at least one numbered card.
Relics: One per 6.5 boxes.
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Conclusion: If you are hunting Series 1 value, Celebration Megas are one of the better places to look. But let’s keep expectations realistic. I am grading this on the Series 1 curve, not against the broader hobby. Series 1 retail has a long history of feeling like a desert with occasional cardboard mirages, so “good” here does not mean “loaded.” It just means your odds of not being completely disappointed are a little higher than with other retail formats.
2025 Bowman’s Best Baseball
See full checklist, odds and breakdown.
Year after year, Bowman’s Best is one of Topps’ strongest baseball releases. With a tight checklist of rookies, vets, and prospects, it is usually loaded with substance, not filler. 2025 Bowman’s Best is no different.
The 2024 edition, though initially pre-ordering at $300 per box, now sells for around $685 per box on the secondary market, powered by a monumental rookie class and solid chase elements.
Pre-orders for 2025 Bowman’s Best Hobby boxes popped on Feb. 9 at $340, a tidy little $40 bump from last year. Release day pricing was $350 per box. Now they’re selling for around $700.
Did Topps continue the “print more, charge more, give less goodies” trend we’ve seen so much of lately? They’re certainly printing more, definitely charging more, and they also removed a fan favorite in the Anime inserts (which are moving to the flagship Bowman release). The answer may appear to be a resounding yes. However, not so fast. There may be a bit of redemption in store.
Total cards in product:
2025: 3,825,000
2024: 3,327,850
YoY: +14.9 percent
As expected, Topps printed more. Honestly, with the additional host of parallels and auto subjects, which I’ll get into shortly, I was braced for a 25-40 percent increase. So I think the reality is very reasonable. I’ll take it.
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Total production by format (Hobby release only):
2025 Hobby: 63,750 boxes (7,969 cases)
2024 Hobby: 55,464 boxes (6,933 cases)
Base card production:
2025: 20,001 copies each
2024: 19,121 copies each
This deserves some attention. Of the around 497,000 additional cards printed this year, only 55,206 (11.1 percent) are base cards. The overwhelming majority went toward autos, parallels and inserts. That’s exactly how you scale a product while making it better, not worse.
You might ask: if only 55k of nearly 500k additional cards are base, where did the rest of the growth come from? Here’s the breakdown:
Total parallels (not including inserts or autos):
2025: 1,100,423
2024: 882,924
YoY: +217,499 (+24.6 percent)
Total inserts (includes parallels, but not autos):
2025: 484,968
2024: 324,181
YoY: +160,787 (+49.6 percent)
Total autos:
2025: 272,283
2024: 208,627
YoY: +63,656 (+30.5 percent)
In place of the missing Anime short prints, Topps added Prospect Patch Autos with giant swatches and a “1st Patch” connotation for players who qualify. These have turned out to be a pretty nasty chase.
Additional parallels introduced: Lazer /350, Purple Lazer /250, Aqua /199, Blue Lazer /150, Yellow /75.
Best-Tek is a new acetate insert limited to print runs of 99 that only comes in parallels of Blue /75, Gold /50, Orange /25, Red /5, and Black /1. The base is one per about three cases and they get rarer from there, so they’re a tougher pull than last year’s Anime.
Conclusions: The dollar per auto in Bowman’s Best is legit. At MSRP (manufacturer’s suggested retail price), it had a better dollar per auto ($87.50) than recent releases like Pristine ($147.69) and Bowman Draft Hobby ($216.67). It’s even cheaper than Stadium Club ($101.69) and Series 1 Jumbo ($210), both of which carry massive auto checklists.
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The checklist is also legit. Very little fluff. The 2025 rookie class may not have the depth of 2024, but the stars are still the stars, and the prospect crop is loaded. It’s a better-crafted product.
2025-26 Topps Cosmic Chrome Basketball
See full checklist, odds and breakdown.
This is a huge release for the fresh Topps NBA license. But thankfully, it did not receive the Topps Chrome Basketball treatment of getting a massive print increase.
Total Cards in the Product:
2025-26: 6,355,200
2023/24: 5,203,400 (+22.1 percent)
Since that previous basketball set was unlicensed, a better comparison might be 2025 Cosmic Chrome Baseball, with its 5,470,560 total cards.
Though this represents more production than both prior Cosmic Chrome sets, it’s also not an egregious increase. Chrome Basketball was printed at a clip of 32.7 percent over the prior baseball version. So this one coming in at only 16 percent more is very reasonable to me.
Base production: ~24,660 each
Production by format (hobby only release):
2025-26 Basketball: 79,440 boxes (9,930 cases)
2023-24 Basketball: 65,043 boxes
2025 Cosmic Baseball: 68,235 boxes
Hit rates per box:
Autos: 0.37/box (1 per 2.73 boxes, or ~3 per case). This is almost identical to the auto distribution in Cosmic baseball.
Parallels: 4.7/box (Also ~2.4 Insert parallels/box, so total parallels/box comes to ~7)
Inserts: 12.9/box
Numbered cards: 2.3/box
Total Planetary Pursuits/case: 3
Total rare inserts/case: 5.33
Rare inserts have changed a bit from other Cosmic releases. In addition to the typical Planetary Pursuits, we now have the following rare inserts: Re-Entry, Geocentric, First Light, HyperNova
Conclusions: This is Cosmic doing Cosmic things. Slightly bigger print, sure… but still limited.
Where this product wins is exactly where Cosmic always wins:
1) The visuals go hard
2) The inserts chase is addictive
3) The top-end parallels command big values
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Those Planetary Pursuits of legit stratospheric names? Four figures may be a conservative estimate.
Yeah, no guaranteed auto in each box hurts at this price, but if it had that, you’re paying $1,500-plus per box on the secondary market.
2025 Transcendent Baseball
Please do not let influencers tempt you into buying into this debacle in any fashion, breaks or otherwise. There is no way you can fractionalize this that would make it worthwhile.
Typically, I like to throw my hat in the ring on Transcendent — buy into a couple of breaks and give myself a chance to hit a potential monster card. I won’t have any detailed analysis on it because I don’t expect any odds, but let’s do a very basic breakdown.
Forty two cards for $25,000 per briefcase is almost $600 per card.
Do yourself a favor and watch a few breaks. See how many cards are pulled that would sell for $600-plus. Spoiler: that number will be dangerously close to zero. Maybe two or three per briefcase if you’re lucky.
There are VIP Party invitations, which are usually the most sought-after hits, but you are not guaranteed an invite in each briefcase. Out of 1,000 briefcases, there are 100 basic party invitations and 10 higher tier Platinum level VIP invites (or whatever they’re calling them). So if you drop $25k and buy the whole briefcase, your chances are still only 11 percent to hit one.
If you really want to go to the party, I get it, but an invitation can probably be purchased for far less than the price of a briefcase.
A little history: the 2023 edition and prior were also $25k-plus per briefcase. You also got far more cards, far more autos, and a guaranteed invite. For 2024, the format changed. More cases made, less included, with no guaranteed invite. And the price was around $10k per briefcase, which can be reasonably fractionalized without too much bloodshed.
For 2025, the format remains almost exactly the same, except the price is back to $25k.
Stay far away from this. Breaking a five-year streak, I will absolutely not buy into a single break of Transcendent. And I suggest you avoid it too.
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