NBA Rookie of the Year odds: Cooper Flagg, Kon Knueppel in close race

The NBA Rookie of the Year race hasn’t generated many memorable battles in the last two decades.

After Cooper Flagg’s outrageous scoring onslaught for the Dallas Mavericks over the weekend, the Rookie of the Year showdown against former Duke roommate and Charlotte Hornets guard Kon Knueppel is one of the closest in years.

Flagg looked every bit like the No. 1 overall pick by scoring 96 points over his last two games — reemerging as the favorite for the Wilt Chamberlain Trophy. But Knueppel, the NBA’s leader in 3-pointers at 265 on the year, closes the regular season against three elite Eastern Conference opponents with the Hornets pushing for their first playoff berth in 10 years.

Both former Duke stars have compelling Rookie of the Year cases, and the race could come down to the final game of the season. Will voters side with Flagg’s flashes of brilliance or Knueppel’s unwavering consistency for a surprising young potential playoff team?

Flagg surpasses Knueppel after memorable weekend

Flagg (-200) is the favorite for NBA Rookie of the Year on DraftKings after putting together a weekend for the ages.

The Mavericks forward became the first NBA teenager to score at least 50 points in a game with a 51-point performance against Orlando on Friday. Flagg followed that up Sunday with 45 points, nine assists and eight rebounds in a nationally televised Mavericks win over the Lakers.

Becoming the first rookie with back-to-back games of at least 40 points since Allen Iverson in 1996-97, Flagg jumped from second place in Rookie of the Year odds at +225 to the new favorite after the two-game explosion.

For the season, Flagg is putting up 21.1 points, 6.6 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 1.2 steals per game on 47.3 percent shooting. Playing multiple positions for the Mavericks in his first year, Flagg is top 44 in the NBA in all three major statistical categories while showing continued growth during the regular season.

Missing eight games post All-Star break with a left midfoot sprain, Flagg was slow to recover once returning to the floor in early March — hurting his awards credentials and briefly dropping him to second. Only averaging 15.6 points per game on 35 percent shooting in his first five games back from injury, Flagg looked sluggish and featured little scoring pop. But the rookie has had a strong closing stretch that has featured eight 20-point outings in his last 12 games.

With four Mavericks games left in the regular season — including a matchup against MVP contender Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs on Friday night — Flagg will have a busy final week of the season to cement his Rookie of the Year case.

Continuing his own stellar rookie campaign, Knueppel (+150) is playing a huge part in Charlotte’s unexpected resurgence. Already shattering the NBA rookie season 3-point record, Knueppel is ripping nets at a 43 percent clip from distance to go along with 18.7 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game. Knueppel needs 12 3-pointers over the last week to become the only rookie in the top 20 all-time for made 3-pointers in an NBA season.

It looked like Charlotte was headed for another trip to the lottery with a 4-14 start. Even at 16-28 in January, the playoffs looked unlikely, but Knueppel consistently performed until the Hornets got healthy and unexpectedly ran a nine-game winning streak. Charlotte is 27-8 in its last 35 games, entering Tuesday in a three-way tie with Philadelphia and Orlando at 43-36 and a half game behind Toronto for the No. 6 seed in the playoff picture.

Through it all, Knueppel’s consistency and stunning durability for a rookie — he’s 19th in the NBA in total minutes this season — give the guard a credible case. As Flagg went through his mid-season injury and post-injury slump, Knueppel surged ahead in the Rookie of the Year race and sat at -300 on DraftKings for the award.

Some voters could ultimately still value how Knueppel played a big role in Charlotte’s winning season, helping turn around a franchise with minimal success over the last decade. Meanwhile, Dallas is nearly 30 games under .500 and headed for the lottery once again despite Flagg’s contributions.

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“I mean, he’s obviously special,” James said of Flagg, who has scored 96 points in his last two games.

Close Rookie of the Year race a rarity

Part of the intrigue surrounding the Flagg and Knueppel battle is how rarely Rookie of the Year is this competitive. Over the last 20 years, the award has only been a compelling vote two times.

Voted on by 100 national media members, each voter selects three rookies who are awarded points in tiers. Voting has often resulted in landslide victories for future NBA All-Stars.

The 2022 race was a recent exception. Scottie Barnes of the Toronto Raptors outdueled Cleveland Cavaliers big man Evan Mobley by only 15 total vote points — the closest Rookie of the Year vote since the current voting format began in 2003. Detroit Pistons guard Cade Cunningham further complicated the 2022 voting as a viable third candidate with nine first-place votes of his own.

Sacramento Kings guard Tyreke Evans was the other contested recent Rookie of the Year winner in 2010 over Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry and Milwaukee Bucks point guard Brandon Jennings.

Should Knueppel claim Rookie of the Year over Flagg, he would have the longest preseason odds (+2000) of any winner since Malcolm Brogdon’s unexpected win as a second-round pick in 2017.

Although Flagg might gain a narrative advantage over Knueppel as the top pick, only nine No. 1 overall picks have won Rookie of the Year since the current voting format began in 2003.