If NBA playoffs started today: Projecting 8 first-round matchups in season’s final week

If the playoffs started today, we’d be confused about why the final days of the season and the Play-In Tournament were scrapped. Because the playoffs are supposed to begin April 18 with all of the pomp and circumstance and lead-up we’ve grown accustomed to. We’d also be worried that another pandemic is affecting the NBA schedule, and we certainly don’t want that to happen.

But if we’re looking at the current playoff matchups as of today (April 6), there are some pretty interesting series across the board that we’d really like to see happen in the regularly scheduled postseason.

As the final week of the regular season winds down, let’s look at each of those potential matchups: how those teams look against each other, how their potential strengths can be avoided and weaknesses can be exploited. Does the season series tell us anything? Which team would you trust to win that series?

For determining the seventh and eighth seeds, we’ll use Basketball-Reference’s playoff odds. Or, depending on how teams are trending, I might call an audible and move them through this imaginary, yet abandoned Play-In.

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Eastern Conference

No. 1 Detroit Pistons vs. No. 8 Charlotte Hornets

Why the Hornets at No. 8? They’re playing the best out of the teams at the bottom of the Play-In.

What’s the concern for the Pistons? There just isn’t much secondary offense. They’ve been surviving just fine without Cade Cunningham as he heals from a collapsed lung. But the playoffs will be on a different level. Even Cunningham at full health means the Pistons don’t have multiple creators. Keeping up with Charlotte’s outside shooting would be a bit of a math problem.

What’s the concern for the Hornets? Lack of experience and dealing with the Pistons’ physicality. The Hornets don’t have guys who shy away from contact or the moment. However, Detroit’s physicality is on an entirely different level. That might break them a little, and that’s where the lack of experience would rear its ugly head.

How did their season series go? The Pistons are up 2-0 with one game left. Detroit blew out the Hornets in December as the turnaround was beginning. They beat Charlotte by six in the second matchup, with Cunningham going for 33 in a game marred by a benches-clearing altercation. They have one last meeting on April 10.

What would be the pick? Pistons in six. Without knowing that Cunningham will be 100 percent, Charlotte can put some pressure on them.

No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. No. 7 Toronto Raptors

Why the Raptors at No. 7? They just fell into the Play-In Tournament on Wednesday and they should be too good not to make it through.

What’s the concern for the Celtics? The rebounding isn’t actually fixed, and the Celtics aren’t healthy enough to make up for it. The Raptors aren’t a big offensive rebounding team, but they could make it a point of emphasis to find a Boston weakness to exploit. Possessions getting extended and any potential inconsistency from Jayson Tatum as he comes back from the injury could be detrimental against a good Raptors defense.

What’s the concern for the Raptors? This is not a good or trustworthy offense, and the Celtics can run you right off the floor. It’s really tough to keep up if you can’t make 3-pointers to match. If Brandon Ingram can’t free himself from Jaylen Brown or Derrick White, it shuts down a lot of Toronto’s offense. If the defense can’t force turnovers, then they may not get enough easy points to go on extended runs.

How did their season series go? Boston leads 3-0 with a game left. Two of the losses were close for Toronto and they haven’t played since January 9, so it’s been a while.

What would be the pick? Celtics in four. This is a terrible matchup for Toronto’s bad offense.

No. 3 New York Knicks vs. No. 6 Philadelphia 76ers

What’s the concern for the Knicks? We still haven’t seen this team fully click, and it’s going to need that, even in the first round. Everybody assumes the Knicks are just waiting for the playoffs, but flipping a switch when you don’t have championship experience is a tall task. The Knicks would need to contain both Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid, which could prove troublesome.

What’s the concern for the 76ers? This team is never fully healthy and always finds a way to fall apart in the big moments. Trusting Embiid, Paul George and even Tyrese Maxey to be and remain fully healthy is irrational. It’s the same story with the Sixers going into every single postseason series. You start playing the “what if” game and get too many “what if” scenarios to take this seriously.

How did their season series go? The season series is 2-2, with all four games having happened before the All-Star break.

What would be the pick? Knicks in six. Karl-Anthony Towns having a good series could end it a lot quicker.

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No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 5 Atlanta Hawks

What’s the concern for the Cavs? The perimeter defense of this team is going to get picked apart. Donovan Mitchell and James Harden are bad defensive players, and teams planning against them from game-to-game could get ugly. It puts even more pressure on these guys to deliver with shot making and creation on the other end. Their consistency in the postseason hasn’t been great. We also haven’t seen this team healthy much, and they have a bad history in the playoffs over the last three years. Will Evan Mobley or the role players be ready to step up and deliver?

What’s the concern for the Hawks? They have guys who can score, but they don’t have a true go-to scorer. Jalen Johnson is capable of putting up big numbers across the board, but Mobley guarding him will be a difficult matchup. Alexander-Walker might be the most improved player. CJ McCollum can put up shots. But when it’s crunch time, how do they match whatever Mitchell and Harden are doing? Can the Hawks handle the two-big lineup with Mobley and Jarrett Allen?

How did their season series go? The series is currently 1-1, with two games left to play. Both games so far happened before December.

What would be the pick? Cavs in seven. Atlanta needs a go-to guy, but the Hawks would make this difficult.

Chet Holmgren blocks Shaedon Sharpe’s shot in Portland. (Soobum Im / Getty Images)

Western Conference

No. 1 OKC Thunder vs. No. 8 LA Clippers

Why the Clippers as the eighth seed? They shouldn’t have to worry about Portland or Golden State. I’ll give Phoenix the slight edge in a Play-In matchup.

What’s the concern for the Thunder? That they have a conflicting appointment and can’t make the game, thus forfeiting? And this happens enough that they lose four times in the series? Obviously, the presence of Kawhi Leonard is intimidating, and Darius Garland is playing excellent basketball. The Thunder just have to make sure they hit the defensive boards, and they should be fine.

What’s the concern for the Clippers? The Thunder are on a mission of destruction. The Clippers thrive on forcing turnovers and turning those opportunities into quick, easy points. The Thunder are one of the best teams at taking care of the ball. The Clippers would be forced to be perfect in the half court.

How did their season series go? OKC is 2-0 against the Clippers with one game left on April 8. Both of those games happened before Christmas.

What would be the pick? Thunder in four. The Clippers have turned their season around, but this is a different level of opponent.

No. 2 San Antonio Spurs versus No. 7 Phoenix Suns

Why the Suns? The Suns should be at home for the Play-In, and a healthy enough team should secure the seventh seed.

What’s the concern for the Spurs? The lack of experience, and they do turn the ball over quite a bit. The Spurs also aren’t an elite 3-point shooting team. Maybe all of those things manifest themselves against a Suns team that can really shoot. And Phoenix is good at forcing turnovers for quick strikes. If the Spurs don’t know how to manage those tough moments, then maybe there’s a threat.

What’s the concern for the Suns? Victor Wembanyama can eat planets, and he’s figuring out how to destroy entire solar systems. There is no matching up with Wemby, and that cute little idea of putting Dillon Brooks on him to irritate Wemby wouldn’t work either. The Suns may not have the athlete to keep up with the Spurs in a playoff series.

How did their season series go? It’s tied 2-2. The Suns won the two games in November. The Spurs won the two games after the All-Star break.

What would be the pick? Spurs in five. Phoenix can steal a game at home, but the Spurs are too good now.

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No. 3 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 6 Minnesota Timberwolves

What’s the concern for the Lakers? Well, Luka Dončić’s hamstring injury. and Austin Reaves’ oblique injury. They’ll be out for at least the rest of the regular season. Also, the Lakers haven’t outright resolved any concern with their team defense. It’s looked solid-to-good recently, but those are random regular-season games. If they can’t find that chemistry on defense in the playoffs, we may see the same problems arise as when they played Minnesota in the first round last year. Deandre Ayton probably isn’t the steady answer to how the Wolves dominated the paint. And the Lakers don’t have anyone to guard Anthony Edwards.

What’s the concern for the Wolves? The Wolves tend to make dumb, bad turnovers, and that could fuel a questionable Lakers defense. You can’t give up transition points to the Lakers, and letting them be opportunistic about how and when they run creates those big scoring stretches. Also, Jaden McDaniels’ knee injury couldn’t come at a worse time if it’s not healed by the time he has to guard Dončić (if he’s healthy).

How did their season series go? The Lakers swept the series 3-0. Two of the games happened in the first week of the season, and the Lakers recently embarrassed the Wolves.

What would be the pick? Wolves in seven, even with Luka and Reaves in the fold. I’m not convinced Ayton solves the issues from last year’s playoff series.

No. 4 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 5 Houston Rockets

What’s the concern for the Nuggets? They haven’t really been healthy all season long, and they’re still battling injuries. Nikola Jokić hasn’t looked nearly as spry or healthy since coming back from his knee injury in the middle of the season. Aaron Gordon has been battling a hamstring issue for a year. This team isn’t maximizing its potential going into the playoffs, and that could give Houston some life.

What’s the concern for the Rockets? This team is a mess chemistry-wise, and it’s terrible in the clutch. The Rockets continue to struggle to score in tight games, and that’s not going to bode well going against Jokić and Jamal Murray. The Rockets likely can’t keep up there, and their clutch defense has proven to have the same resistance as a swinging saloon door. Without Steven Adams, the Rockets don’t have the size to handle Jokić.

How did their season series go? Denver is 3-1 against Houston this season. Three of the games happened before Christmas. The Nuggets demolished the Rockets in mid-March.

What would be the pick? Nuggets in five. I don’t see how Houston can match Denver’s clutch offense.