Milan-San Remo Used to Be Cycling’s Most Wide Open Race — Now There’s Only One Favorite

Milan-San Remo used to be cycling’s biggest and gaudiest casino.

La Classicissima was the everyman’s monument. Whoever survived the Poggio had a chance.

A sprinter with diamonds in their legs or an opportunist with dropper seatpost. A puncheur with downhill chops or a monster solo attack on the Via Roma. It was a race with 100 scenarios.

Then Tadej Pogačar showed up and destroyed the odds.

The Slovenian has yet to win San Remo, but the peloton is racing Saturday as if he already has. The bunch is bracing for a radically different race Saturday when only one outcome seems inevitable.

What was once a slow fuse on dynamite that blew up on the Poggio is now the near-impossible task of trying to hold Pogačar’s wheel when he goes nuclear on the Cipressa.

His ambitions are clear.

“I’d rather win Milan-San Remo than a record of six Tours,” he told La Gazzetta dello Sport. “Between zero and one there is a bigger difference than four and five, or five and six.”

La Primavera has gone from a race that almost anyone could win to a high-speed roulette between Pogačar and the only rider who can consistently match him, Mathieu van der Poel.

Everyone else is already taking themselves out of the game.

Changing expectations

Even the fastest men in the peloton are adjusting expectations against the singular force of Pogačar, whose presence alone is reshaping the race for everyone.

“Because of the dominance of Tadej, Milan-San Remo has become a slightly different race,” Jasper Philipsen told WielerFlits. “The fact that they can really make the difference already from the Cipressa changes the dynamic of the race.”

Philipsen’s words are remarkable because he won the race two years ago. At least he is still showing up, even if he admits how slim his chances are.

“There is always a chance. Nine times out of 10, it’s a lost day, but you still take the kilometers and experience,” he said. “For every small chance that exists, you have to go there. San Remo is too important to skip.”

The Cipressa, once an aperitivo in a six-hour la dolce vita carpet ride, is now a Pogačar launchpad.

Filippo Ganna felt the blast firsthand last year when he had the legs to follow.

“I didn’t honestly expect Pogačar to openly attack last year. It was intense, but I managed to go with them. It was one of the hardest efforts of my life,” he told La Gazzetta. “Second place hurt, but I was on the podium with Van der Poel and Pogacar.”

Ganna knows if Pogačar gets away solo on the Cipressa, it could be game over.

“It will be bad news if Pogačar drops van der Poel. We won’t see him again until the finish,” he said.

That’s the reality of racing against Pogačar right now.

Breaking the frame

Just like at Strade Bianche — where a longer, harder course only favored Pogačar more — he’s single-handedly reshaping the dynamics of the modern San Remo, a race once defined as the sprinter’s classic.

At the height of his powers, Pogačar is now the singular favorite to win every race he starts.

And that’s true even at Paris-Roubaix, where, but for a botched corner late in the race, he pushed Van der Poel to the limit.

Riders are altering their calendars to avoid him, or at least delay the inevitable.

Jonas Vingegaard is taking on the Giro-Tour double this year, in part because Pogačar is skipping the Italian grand tour. The pair will not face off until July at the Tour de France.

Arnaud De Lie is taking things to another extreme. He’ll be watching Milan-San Remo on TV.

Speaking last month to HLN, the Belgian bull said he is not racing San Remo because he knows he has no chance of winning against Pogačar or Van der Poel in the new explosive version of the race.

“I think I’m making the right choice. I have to be realistic: with them on the start line I don’t stand a chance,” he said. “They ride the Cipressa a minute faster than the rest. Milan–Sanremo is a lost day for me. It’s pointless.”

That jarring admission drew heat, but De Lie only seemed to be saying out loud what just about everyone else is thinking.

Sometimes the house wins

Yet Milan-San Remo continues to live up to its reputation as the easiest monument to finish, but the hardest to win.

Peter Sagan never won it, and Philippe Gilbert, the modern rider who came closest to completing the monument sweep, also could not unravel the puzzle.

You get the feeling Pogačar is champing at the bit to check it off his list. Video captured by a fan showed Pogačar motor-pacing down the Italian Riviera, and he’s been taking laps on the Poggio.

Ironically, forecasted brisk head and crosswinds Saturday along the Ligurian coast could spoil a Pogačar party. Or perhaps at least keep things interesting.

The one monument that’s hard-wired against Pogačar is already changing how he and everyone else approach it.

Milan-San Remo used to be the race anyone could win.

Now, it’s another Pogačar demolition derby, with everyone else fighting to hang on.