5 Wild Ways Pogačar and Van der Poel Could Lose Milan-San Remo

Why are we only talking about Mathieu van der Poel and Tadej Pogačar ahead of Milan-San Remo?

This is La Primavera – the race where anything can happen.

It’s 250km of waiting, and 50km of micro-margins and split-second decisions.

That’s why not even cycling superhumans Pogačar and Van der Poel are assured victory on the iconic Via Roma.

There’s a sneaky-strong pack of underdogs who can break the Pogi-MVDP narrative on Saturday, and a bunch of ways they could do it.

Riders like Tom Pidcock, Wout van Aert, and the Big 2’s very own teammates could pull classic moves from the San Remo playbook, or get a little more “inventive” in the must-watch final hour of racing.

Here’s how an outsider could beat Van der Poel and Pogačar at the 2026 Milan-San Remo.

Del Toro: Monument red mist

Del Toro – San Remo record: 2 starts, 13th in 2025

Isaac del Toro could usurp the big boss on Saturday. Don’t laugh, it could happen.

Anything can happen in Milan-San Remo’s high-speed lottery.

But how would Torito beat his UAE teammate Pogačar to the monument he so craves?

The most plausible way is simply that Pogačar has a bad day.

If Pogi gets such bad guts, bad legs, or bad luck that not even his superdomestique can save him, Del Toro is next in line at the UAE super team. And the 22-year-old showed at Tirreno-Adriatico that he’s not scared of a skuffle with a rider of the muscle of Van der Poel.

Another scenario we’d love to see?

Del Toro, Pogačar, and Van der Poel go clear over the Cipressa and work together to arrive as three on the Via Roma.

That’s where the Mexican gets the monument red mist.

He surprise-attacks them both and steals Pogačar’s missing monument.

Del Toro would be forced to clean UAE’s fleet of Colnagos with his toothbrush for the rest of his career if it happens – but it would be worth it.

Ganna: ‘The Flying Cancellara’

Ganna – San Remo record: 8 starts, finished 2nd twice (2023 and 2025)

Fillipo Ganna has got all the tools to turn the tables on the Big 2 on Saturday.

Last year, the huge Italian surpassed his weight class to hang on to the UAE onslaught on the Cipressa and Poggio, and pushed MVDP all the way in the kick for the line.

Ganna can sort-of climb, and he can sprint.

But Top Ganna’s best weapon for San Remo is his world-beating pursuit.

If Ganna can cling to another UAE climbing blitz on Saturday, he’s got the horsepower to “pull a Cancellara” down 2,000m of smooth Via Roma.

The Swiss “Spartacus” blew his rivals away with his audacious snap attack in 2008. Jasper Stuyven repeated the feat in 2021.

A solo flyer would be the most dramatic, and perhaps the most likely, route to victory for Italy’s beloved time trial star.

The nation’s nonnas will need a stiff aperitivo if he pulls it off.

Pidcock: The downhill masterclass

Pidcock – San Remo record: 4 starts, finished 11th in 2024

If Tom Pidcock is on the start line of a major classic, you can count on him trying something – no matter who’s there.

And San Remo is certainly no exception.

Pidcock teased an attack down the Poggio in his 2021 San Remo debut, but admitted he didn’t really know what he was doing. In fact, he barely knew where he was going, having failed to do a recon of the sinuous descent.

A few years later in 2024, the sub-60kg ‘crosser attempted a 500m dash down the Via Roma.

This year round, it’s time for Pidders to reprise the Poggio attack.

Sure, the chances of success are minimal. Cycling’s greatest stuntman will need hundreds of meters of a gap to fend off a group of chasers in the 2km canter down the Via Roma.

But if anyone can pull it off, it’s Pidcock.

The Brit’s summit finish victory on Wednesday in Torino suggests the engine is ready. Now let’s hope he does more trial runs of the Poggio than in 2021.

Van Aert, Brennan, Jorgenson: The Visma triple threat

Visma triple threat – San Remo records:

• Van Aert: 5 starts, won in 2020, finished 3rd twice
• Brennan: Debutant
• Jorgenson: 1 start (2020), finished 17th

Visma-Lease a Bike hasn’t won a monument since Wout van Aert outsprinted Julian Alaphilippe at the bizarre mid-summer edition of San Remo in 2020.

Could “The Killer Bees” quench its monument drought on Saturday?

On paper, V-LAB has it all covered for La Primavera. Van Aert the all-rounder, Matthew Brennan the speedster, and Matteo Jorgenson the tractor to tow them through all scenarios.

But as we Brits would say, is the team “Jack of all trades, master of none?”

The chance of a bunch sprint for Brennan seems slim. Pogačar is hell-bent on making the race as hard as possible, and forecasts of a tailwind further reduce the odds of “a bunchie”.

Jorgenson could hold the fastest wheels over the Poggio, but even he jokes about his sluggish sprint. Sorry Matteo, you’ll be last across the line in a small group finale.

Which means Wout needs to bring it home for “The Bees.”

WVA has been talking himself up for San Remo. He inched close to his killer best as he raced through the recent Strade Bianche and Tirreno-Adriatico. But only Wout’s very best legs, and a rare dose of luck, will beat Pogi and MVDP on Saturday.

And if it doesn’t work out for Woutjie?

Maybe Matteo and Matthew can prove our predictions wrong.

Philipsen, Groves: 2024 redux for the Alpecin speedsters

Alpecin speedsters: San Remo records:

• Philipsen: 5 starts, won in 2024
• Groves: 1 start (2025), finished 5th

Jasper Philipsen knows he got lucky with how the race unfolded when he won Milan-San Remo in 2024.

And sorry Jasper, but the possibility of a small-sprint redux on Saturday seems slim. The odds of a group arriving together on the Via Roma have been decimated since Pogačar and UAE decided to start devastating the Cipressa.

But maybe an underpowered UAE team doesn’t deliver its climbing coup de grâce. The “Pogačar-launchers” Tim Wellens and Jhonatan Narváez are both out of action.

And if so, Van der Poel, Philipsen, and their teammate Kaden Groves could all land in the jumble of riders after the descent of the Poggio.

In which case, anybody not in an Alpecin-Premier Tech jersey is toast.

Jonathan Milan, Mads Pedersen, Olav Kooij, and Tim Merlier are all sidelined for San Remo, leaving few riders fast enough to stop the Belgian team from scooping La Classicissima for a fourth year in a row.

Bonus 6th option – Seixas: Coz the kid can’t help himself

Seixas – San Remo record: Debutant

Cycling’s newest hotshot Paul Seixas isn’t scheduled to race Milan-San Remo on Saturday.

But who knows? Maybe the 19-year-old wonderkid has gotten the itch after his wild start to the season, and he jets into Milan for the clicks.

They do say Gen-Zs have a short attention span, after all.

Seixas would rank among the favorites if he made his monument debut in a parallel dimension of La Primavera.

Sure, he’s never raced anywhere near that far, and his positioning skills haven’t caught up to his wild physiology. But he’s got the climbing chops to match Pogačar, and could stuff the Slovenian in a sprint.