A warm, windy Monday flips to a brief shot of dense snow Monday night and Tuesday, then the Northeast settles into a colder midweek before another lower-confidence snow window this weekend. Confidence is highest from Monday morning through Tuesday evening, when the severe wind signal on the western edge of the region and the New England cold-front changeover are most tightly aligned on timing, snow levels, and overall impacts.
Monday is mostly a weather and operations day, not a quality snow day, across New England. Guidance is tightly clustered on a soaking rain and strong southerly wind through the daylight hours, with snow levels running roughly 8,000 to 10,000 feet before the front punches through Monday night. Exposed lifts and ridgelines look vulnerable to widespread wind holds, and even where lower mountain winds are less extreme, the ski feel stays wet and rough. On the western edge of the region, Mt. Bohemia remains temporarily closed and stays in a severe wind regime Monday into Tuesday while still tacking on about 2″-3″ of additional snow in this forecast window.
The best agreement for actual snow in New England is centered on the Monday night to Tuesday morning changeover. Guidance clusters fairly well on snow levels crashing to under 1,500 feet by daybreak Tuesday, with the northern Greens favored for a quick 2″-3″ and most of the Whites, western Maine, and southern Vermont closer to 1″-2″. Ratios mostly land around 8-12:1, so this is dense to moderate snow, and the same guidance agrees that strong west to northwest gusts will keep Tuesday wind-affected rather than powdery. Wednesday then turns much quieter, with mountain temperatures dropping into the single digits and teens early before a modest recovery later in the day.
From Thursday into early next week, the pattern stays colder and more wintry, but confidence drops once the next wave starts taking shape. Guidance converges on a quieter Thursday and Friday with only spotty light snow showers, then diverges on the next meaningful round: one set of solutions starts it late Friday into Saturday, while another delays the better snow into Sunday or Monday. They generally agree snow levels stay low enough for snow at the mountains and that the snow quality would improve into roughly 12-16:1 if the storm materializes, but they do not agree on where the deepest moisture or strongest wind fields set up. A conservative read for the open northern Vermont, New Hampshire, and western Maine resorts is a speculative 6″-12″ over the full late-weekend stretch, while the broader pattern beyond that still leans cooler than normal and not especially wet.
Resort Forecast Totals (Mon Mar 16 – Tue Mar 17)
- Mt. Bohemia – 2″-3″
- Jay Peak – 2″-3″
- Smugglers’ Notch – 2″
- Stowe – 2″
- Mont Sainte-Anne – 1″-2″
- Cannon Mountain – 1″-2″
- Sugarbush – 1″
- Killington – 1″
- Wildcat – 1″
- Bretton Woods – 1″
- Loon Mountain – 1″
- Sugarloaf – 1″
- Sunday River – 1″