Pogačar Is Stronger Than Ever, But Seixas Isn’t Far Behind: Strade Bianche Power Analysis

With every victory, it seems as though we might be running out of things to say about Tadej Pogačar. But this time is different. From as far back as I can remember, Pogačar has a young challenger hot on his heels. Paul Seixas shouldn’t have even been on the start line of Strade Bianche. Just look at his stats on paper.

Seixas is a 19-year-old climber and all-rounder. At sub-65kg, he is not (yet) known for his punchiness on steep gravel climbs. Instead, Seixas is more of a pure climber and time trialist, the perfect makeup for a GC rider. Strade Bianche is typically a race for wily veterans, those who know what it’s like to race more than 200km on the gravel roads to Siena.

At the end of the day, the winner wasn’t a surprise. But for the last two hours of the race, we couldn’t help but gawk at the greatness we were witnessing. Not only at the front of the race, but also 90 seconds behind as Seixas, Isaac del Toro, and so many others battled for the podium.

This is how Pogačar won the fastest Strade Bianche ever, and why Seixas might be the only rider who can truly challenge him.

The 120km warmup

Long before television coverage began, the peloton raced out of Siena and towards the first gravel sector. There wasn’t much that happened tactically in the first three hours of racing, but we cannot forget about the accumulated fatigue from Kilometer Zero.

Gianni Vermeersch, who would go on to finish 5th at the end of the day – was in the peloton alongside Pogačar, Seixas, and co. The Belgian had a Normalized Power (NP) of 327w by the time they began the Monte Sante Marie gravel sector with roughly 80km to go.

This was the sector where Pogačar typically makes his move. Only a handful of riders have managed to follow him in the past, but they would all explode eventually. Would this year be any different?

Pogačar’s Race-Winning Move

UAE Team Emirates-XRG led in the Monte Santa Marie with Pogačar in perfect position. The plan was simple: launch the world champion into the steepest section of road with as much speed as possible. Pogačar would push all-out for 1min in the saddle, and then he would see if there was anyone left.

Velon shared a video of Pogačar’s live power data as he attacked at 50 kph.

The speed was incredible, and so was the power. Pogačar pushed nearly 10w/kg for a minute and a half to create his race-winning gap. Seixas was the only rider who came close to the Slovenian’s wheel, even after he closed a gap due to poor positioning.

It was the fastest Monte Sante Marie sector that Pogačar had ever done, nearly a minute faster than in 2025.

Pogačar – Attack on Monte Sante Marie Climb
Time: 1:32
Estimated Average Power: 600w (9.2w/kg)

Seixas: 580w
Del Toro: 570w

This is the magic in Pogačar’s attacks. Not only is he able to hold a high steady power – more on that in a minute – but he also has the explosiveness to drop everyone in a single move. Few riders have the ability to do one of the other. No one but Pogačar has the ability to do both.

After 3000 kJs, how many riders in the world can push 600w and over 9w/kg for a minute and a half … seated? That is what makes Pogačar so special. A handful of riders could make this sort of effort on a steep paved climb, wrenching out of the saddle to squeeze the power into the pedals. But in Strade Bianche, the gravel roads are slippery and dusty. You can rarely ride out of the saddle, and there is even less grip when attacking at 40kph.

Seixas nearly caught the world champion’s wheel, but the Frenchman couldn’t quite make it, and by the top of the climb, Pogačar was out of sight.

Over the next 79km, Pogačar extended his gap to nearly two minutes at one point. But Seixas was keeping it close, and a chase group eventually caught up with him. Del Toro, Tom Pidcock, Matteo Jorgenson, Vermeesch and others soon started working together on the white roads to Siena. There was even one point where the gap began to tumble – was Pogačar about to get caught?

The grand finale – A two-rider show

Attacks were flying in the second group on the road. Jorgenson, Seixas, Ben Healy, and many more gave it a go, but none could snap the elastic after nearly an hour of chasing Pogačar. The final climbs beckoned, and one might have thought that the fatigue was catching up with young Seixas. Of course, it was the 19-year-old’s debut at Strade Bianche. He had done more work than anyone in the chase group, even as Del Toro sat on his wheel for 20+ kilometers.

But as the chasers began the final few climbs, Seixas separated himself from the rest. While Pogačar cruised to victory, Seixas was growing in confidence, strength, and stature. It seemed as if he could do no wrong, as if the last 199km didn’t matter. His legs recharged in half a second. It didn’t matter that Del Toro was glued to his wheel. The Frenchman just kept riding.

As Pogačar saluted the crowd at the finish line, Seixas dropped Del Toro on the final climb and rode to second place on the day. There wasn’t just one story of the day, there were two:

Tadej Pogačar is stronger than ever, and Paul Seixas could be his one true challenger.

How do we know that Pogačar is stronger than ever? He added 40w to his previous Stade Bianche solos, and crushed his own record for the fastest Strade in history.

Pogačar – Strade Bianche solo
Time: 1hr 55min 7sec
Average Power: 380w (5.8w/kg)

Seixas: 1hr 56min 8sec at 330w (5.2w/kg)

There were times when Velon showed Pogačar’s power data live on screen. He was most often pushing 400-420w, with slightly more power on the climbs up to 460-470w. From what we know about Pogačar, his training zones, and his FTP, this all lines up with his two-hour power.

During a 78km solo attack, it is impossible to ride at FTP because the effort is too long. Tempo probably isn’t fast enough, so you have to ride somewhere around Sweet Spot power for nearly two hours.

Pogačar’s average power of 380w for almost two hours doesn’t tell the full story.

Strade Bianche is a hilly race with punchy climbs and slippery gravel descents. That meant that, even during his uninterrupted solo effort, Pogačar likely rode above his FTP on the climbs and coasted down many of the twisting descents. That would bring his NP up over 400w for two hours, a ridiculous level for a rider who only weighs ~65kg.

Seixas wasn’t far behind, and the Frenchman rode a much punchier and more tactical race against the chase group. While his average power was 50w lower than Pogačar’s in the finale, Seixas likely had a NP close to 400w for two hours.

Seixas is the real deal

Power numbers are one thing, but the difference between good riders and great ones is often calmness and panache.

How many riders would have kept pushing with Del Toro sitting in their wheel? Or would they have given up, wasted energy, or lost their focus in such a situation?

Instead, Seixas kept riding, then went back to the chase group, traded attacks with his teammates, and ultimately dropped everyone to finish second behind Pogačar.

When you talk about a special talent, Seixas is that times a thousand.

---

Power Analysis data courtesy of Strava

Strava sauce extension

Riders:

• Tadej Pogačar
• Isaac del Toro
• Paul Seixas
• Gianni Vermeersch