SBT GRVL 2024 Preview and Predictions

The nights are getting cooler and the kids going back to school, but the summer of cycling is far from over.

The next big stop on the US gravel calendar is SBT GRVL, which rolls out of Steamboat Springs, Colorado on August 18.

This year will be the fifth edition of the insanely popular gravel race, and the organizers aren’t holding back. From Friday’s costumes-encouraged HLL CLMB to a sold-out film festival to Tour de France Femmes watch parties on Friday and Saturday morning, there is plenty to do beyond the start line.

For those who are racing one of SBT’s four distances this year, the courses have changed from years past, and riders will be treated to new terrain to the west and south of Steamboat Springs. Notably, those taking on the ‘Black’ course will see a decrease in distance (from last year’s 144 miles to 125) and an uptick in vert (from 10,000 to 11,000 feet of climbing).

Additionally, the ‘champagne gravel’ that SBT GRVL has become known for won’t be quite as bubbly smooth this year. The new routes include more remote and rugged terrain, including a rough five-mile climb at mile 23 of the Black race. The organizers are calling the sector ‘Wahooligan Hill,’ and it will test riders early on with 1,200 feet of climbing at up to 20 percent grades.

Both the Blue and Black courses will climb higher than they have in years past, topping out at 8,400 feet. Does that mean riders who’ve been acclimated to high elevation racing the Leadville 100 or Breck Epic will have an advantage?

According to SBT Events director of marketing Ryan Steers, this year’s elite race is anyone’s race for the taking.

“We think that the elite men will separate on Mystic Road right before Wahooligan Hill,” he said. “Then there’s the climb which is narrow and long, and kicks pretty steep. There will definitely be some tactics after that. Once the race gets to Hayden, it’s pretty smooth and fast. If someone can stay away, a group will have to work to bring them back over 10 miles and 2,000 feet of climbing.”

The last 30 miles of the race will be familiar to anyone who’s competed before, with the brutal Corkscrew climb delivering riders to the top of Chamois Butt’r Hill where they have the option of grabbing a slice of bacon and a beer. Then, it’s a mentally challenging 15 miles back to the finish on Lincoln Ave via Cow Creek, which, Steers said, “is in really good shape right now.”

So, who do we think will win this year’s race? With 60 elite women and 125 elite men vying for both cash and glory, this race is becoming harder and harder to predict.

Elite women predictions

While many marquee gravel races are making the switch to separate start lines for elite men and women, SBT GRVL is holding fast to a mass start. That affects how the women’s race plays out, usually resulting in more separation between the riders. However, with nearly 60 women toeing the line in the pro category on Sunday, it’s possible that we’ll see the women forming their own race within the larger field.

The winners of the past three editions of SBT GRVL, Sofia Gomez Villafañe (2023) and Lauren De Crescenzo (2021, ’22), will both be back to try and repeat in Steamboat Springs, along with recent Leadville 100 MTB champ Melisa Rollins. Other women who’ve been on the podium in Steamboat Springs will also vie for a slice of the $10,000 prize purse on Sunday.

Here are our picks for the top 10.

1. Paige Onweller – Onweller is very strong and very motivated right now, and I think her altitude training, Leadville 100 ride, and general mindset should bode well for Sunday’s race.
2. Cecily Decker – Decker had some bad luck at Leadville last week, but she too is riding very well this year. She won the Rift last month and barring any mechanicals should be on SBT’s podium this weekend.
3. Heather Jackson – Jackson has consistently been in the top 10 at nearly every gravel race she’s entered in the past two years, and the ultra-running Ironman triathlete will be looking to best her sixth place result at SBT last year.
4. Flavia Oliveira Parks – Oliveira Parks has been on the podium the last two years at SBT GRVL, and we don’t expect this to change.
5. Tiffany Cromwell – SBT GRVL is the race that made Cromwell a gravel racer. The Aussie nearly won last year and this year’s shorter course should suit her well.
6. Haley Smith – Smith has been struggling with some respiratory issues this year, but if she feels well on Sunday, the more engaging and technical course this year will play well to her strengths.
7. Carolin Schiff – Schiff has been collecting good results in the UCI Gravel World Series all year, and if she can deal with the altitude and dry air, the SBT course should suit her big engine.
8. Sofia Gomez Villafañe – SGV is perpetually strong and does very well in mass starts. The more technical early half of the race will also suit her skillset.
9. Lauren De Crescenzo – this is LDC’s ‘hometown race,’ one that means more to her than perhaps any other. Her track record here is sound, and she’s already reconned the course, setting a very fast time.
10. Lauren Stephens – the US gravel national champ has the road racing skills that have historically come in handy at this race; plus she’s been riding all the bikes this year, which will also benefit her on the more technical sections of the course.

Elite men predictions

All eyes will certainly be on two-time SBT GRVL champ Keegan Swenson on Sunday, but if the race is anything like this year’s Unbound, he could be a marked man who has to work a lot harder than he plans to. Swenson is fresh off a win at the Leadville Trail 100 MTB race, so his diesel engine is humming (but really, when is it not?).

That said, there are 125 men in the elite field this year, many of whom will be hungry to unseat Swenson. SBT GRVL’s course has historically lent itself to road racing tactics, but that could change this year with a more technical first half, coupled with 1,000 feet more of elevation gain.

1. Keegan Swenson – It’s Keegan.
2. Payson McElveen – McElveen is fresh off a great Leadville result. He also has a great track record in Steamboat Springs. This year’s more technical course should suit him well.
3. Petr Vakoç – Vakoç did not have a great Leadville (broken rim), so he’ll be looking for redemption on Sunday. Last year at SBT he was second.
4. Matt Beers – The Cape Epic is always a contender but hasn’t necessarily been as consistent as he’d like this year. He’ll definitely be looking to better his seventh place finish at Leadville at Steamboat; hopefully he won’t have as big a target on his back as he did at Unbound.
5. Chad Haga – Haga is new to the gravel scene this year and has had a season of ups and downs, but his second place at Unbound bodes well for a good result at SBT GRVL.
6. Lachlan Morton – Morton is a bit like Swenson in that he doesn’t need much introduction. The low key legend was fifth at SBT GRVL last year, but he had just done Leadville and the Breck Epic. SBT GRVL could easily be a repeat performance of Morton’s heartwarming Unbound earlier this year.
7. Pete Stetina – Stetina had a banger early season, winning the Grasshopper Adventure Series and the Belgian Tripel Crown. Although he’s said anything else would be the icing on the cake, SBT suits him; he’s been third and fourth here. Plus, he’s Pete. He’s never not in contention.
8. Alexey Vermeulen – Vermeulen is just home from the Olympics, and while the heavy travel may have stymied a good result at Leadville a week can work wonders for recovery. This is a good course for him; he was third last year.
9. Toby Røed – Røed was strong at Leadville but should be even stronger on Sunday. The 2023 Big Sugar champ should do well on the SBT GRVL course, given his fitness, road racing skills, and solid technical riding, as well.
10. Tobias Kongstad – This is the guy who attacked after just five miles at Unbound this year and ended up in third after 200 miles. Enough said.