{"id":714066,"date":"2025-11-20T00:23:23","date_gmt":"2025-11-19T21:23:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=714066"},"modified":"2025-11-20T00:23:23","modified_gmt":"2025-11-19T21:23:23","slug":"new-data-analysis-confirms-pogacar-as-a-physiological-goat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=714066","title":{"rendered":"New Data Analysis Confirms Poga\u010dar as a Physiological GOAT"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Updated November 19, 2025 08:41AM<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Eddy Merckx better stop reading now.<\/p>\n

A fresh analysis of Tadej Poga\u010dar\u2019s recent Tour de France climbing performances reconfirms the Slovenian super-cyclist as a physiological GOAT, and highlights the wild extremes of the sport\u2019s modern era.<\/p>\n

Data published by the Journal of Science and Cycling<\/em> this week put Poga\u010dar\u2019s VO2 Max in the high 90s, one of the highest on record.<\/p>\n

Beyond that, it reconfirmed what we already know \u2013 that if you want to beat Pogi up a hill, you gotta hit close to 7w\/kg. That\u2019s a power-to-weight ratio former GC superstars like Chris Froome and Alberto Contador could have only dreamed of just 10 years ago.<\/p>\n

The new study by Norwegian professor Ole Kristian Berg reverse engineers the key metrics underlying Poga\u010dar\u2019s Tour de France highlights reel.<\/p>\n

The paper combines publicly available climbing times from Strava and best-guesses at body mass and bike weight.<\/p>\n

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Estimates of power, power-to-weight, and VO2 Max \u2013 an athlete\u2019s maximum rate of oxygen uptake, and a gold standard measure of fitness \u2013 were then calculated for six summit finishes from the past two Tours de France.<\/p>\n

And of course, the big hitters were included in the report.<\/p>\n

Poga\u010dar\u2019s record-setting ascent of the Plateau de Beilles in 2024, and his pulverization of Jonas Vingegaard this summer in his Pyr\u00e9n\u00e9an rout of the Hautacam and Peyragudes\u00a0were included.<\/p>\n

Yes, Poga\u010dar is a physiological freak<\/h2>\n
The new study put fresh light on Poga\u010dar\u2019s Tour de France domination.<\/span> (Photo: LOIC VENANCE\/AFP via Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The main takeaways from the study?<\/p>\n

As Velo<\/em> already showed in repeat power analyses, Poga\u010dar can push in excess of 6.7w\/kg for close to 40 minutes, even when fatigued. When he\u2019s relatively \u201cfresh,\u201d like in this summer\u2019s Peyragudes mountain time trial, he can hit 7w\/kg for close to 20 minutes.<\/p>\n

The study also calculated that Poga\u010dar\u2019s climbing times would require a VO2 Max of ~80mL\/kg\/min.<\/p>\n

This was then extrapolated out to credit Team UAE\u2019s talismanic leader with an absolute VO2 Max in the high 90s \u2013 potentially as high as 96mL\/kg\/min.<\/p>\n

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And this was no back of a cigarette packet calculation. The author based the workings on an assumption of Poga\u010dar\u2019s critical power \u2013 a number which equates to a repeatable 40-minute effort \u2013 and the established theory that \u201cCP\u201d occurs at 85-90 percent of VO2 Max.<\/p>\n

\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Climb<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nStage<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nDuration<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nAve. Power (W)<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nW\/Kg<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nVO2 Max<\/strong>(mL\/Kg\/min)<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Plateau de Beille<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nStage 15 2024<\/span><\/td>\n38:38<\/span><\/td>\n453<\/span><\/td>\n6.9<\/span><\/td>\n82<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Isola 2000<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nStage 19 2024<\/span><\/td>\n37:49<\/span><\/td>\n446<\/span><\/td>\n6.8<\/span><\/td>\n81<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Couillole<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nStage 20 2024<\/span><\/td>\n39:04<\/span><\/td>\n428<\/span><\/td>\n6.5<\/span><\/td>\n78<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hautacam<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nStage 12 2025<\/span><\/td>\n33:27<\/span><\/td>\n441<\/span><\/td>\n6.7<\/span><\/td>\n80<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Peyragudes TT<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nStage 13 2025<\/span><\/td>\n17:56<\/span><\/td>\n462<\/span><\/td>\n7.0<\/span><\/td>\n84<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ventoux<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nStage 16 2025<\/span><\/td>\n53:47<\/span><\/td>\n421<\/span><\/td>\n6.4<\/span><\/td>\n77<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

[On mobile? Rotate mobile to landscape \u2013 ed<\/em>]<\/p>\n

Yes, there are a lot of \u201ccalculations,\u201d \u201cassumptions,\u201d and missing pieces in these models. The impact of wind speeds and drafting is among the many minor loopholes in the equations.<\/p>\n

Nonetheless, the results are in line with what we already suspected, and the report was reviewed by acclaimed WorldTour physiologist Peter Leo.<\/p>\n

So yes, this paper is legit.<\/p>\n

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Poga\u010dar\u2019s VO2 Max is close to recorded bests<\/h2>\n
\"Poga\u010dar\"
The new study used Poga\u010dar\u2019s performance on Plateau de Beille as the basis of its VO2 Max calculation.<\/span> (Photo: Dario Belingheri\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

So, what does a VO2 Max in the high 90s mean<\/em>?<\/p>\n

In short, that Poga\u010dar is a physiological freak with a cardiorespiratory prowess up there with the very best \u2026 ever.<\/p>\n

As former Red Bull and now Tudor Pro Cycling sport scientist Tim Podlogar recently said, \u201cPoga\u010dar\u2019s physiology is completely unimaginable to me.\u201d<\/p>\n

For comparison, the highest recorded VO2 Max is 97.5mL\/kg\/min, set by junior racer Oscar Svendsen in 2012. More recently, tests in 2019 revealed Norwegian cyclist Oskar Svendsen was at 96.7mL\/kg\/min.<\/p>\n

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As a little Tour de France context, former yellow jersey dominator Froome\u2019s peak VO2 Max was calculated at 88.2mL\/kg\/min. U.S. legend Greg LeMond\u2019s was reportedly in the mid-90s.<\/p>\n

The modern peloton is kilometers ahead of the Froome era<\/h2>\n
Performance figures from 2025 blow away those from the Froome era. (Photo: Tim de Waele\/Corbis via Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

This report affirms Poga\u010dar\u2019s status in cycling\u2019s Hall of Fame. If four Tour de France titles, two world rainbow jerseys, and millions of monuments wasn\u2019t already enough, that is.<\/p>\n

But it also makes bold the wild progression of modern cycling.<\/p>\n

Poga\u010dar is the poster boy of a sport of $50 million super-teams, F1 technology, and a dangerous obsession with data, but his rivals aren\u2019t always so far behind.<\/p>\n

More to the point, riders like Vingeaard and Remco Evenepoel are several clicks ahead of the greats of the last decade. Our own power analyses have estimated the GC superstars of the modern era would have torn the foundations out of Team Sky\u2019s \u201cFortress Froome.\u201d<\/p>\n

Back when Froome was at his grand tour-gobbling best, the repeatable 30+ minute norm for elite climbers was seen as 6.0-6.2w\/kg.<\/p>\n

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WorldTour trainers told Velo<\/em> this week that they hold 6.6-6.8w\/kg as the multi-climb benchmark of the Poga\u010dar era. That\u2019s a difference of ~40 watts for an average-size Tour de France topper.<\/p>\n

Poga\u010dar sets the tone for an accelerated modern sport<\/h2>\n
\"Poga\u010dar
Poga\u010dar is setting the tone, but the entire pro peloton is reaching a new level of performance. <\/span> (Photo: MARCO BERTORELLO\/AFP via Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The post-pandemic performance progression isn\u2019t only demonstrated in the stadia of the Alps and Pyr\u00e9n\u00e9es.<\/p>\n

Exponential advancements in tech, nutrition, and training have propelled the peloton to a mind-boggling level, all through the season.<\/p>\n

Results database Pro Cycling Stats reports that the 2025 WorldTour season was the fastest on record. A 42.913kph average speed for the year embarrasses the 40-point-something kph of the 2010s.<\/p>\n

And while speeds must be taken with a pinch of aerodynamic salt, the underlying performances prove the point.<\/p>\n

Quinn Simmons averaged 350 watts for close to six hours last month at Il Lombardia and didn\u2019t even hit the podium. Similarly, Evenepoel recently told Het Laatste Nieuws<\/em> he pushed one-third more power at October\u2019s \u201cRace of the Falling Leaves\u201d than what Gianni Moscon managed in 2017.<\/p>\n

\u201cGianni told me that eight years ago he finished third in Lombardy averaging around 200 watts,\u201d Evenepoel told HLN<\/em>. \u201cThis year, I needed 290 to finish second.\u201d<\/p>\n

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So long 7w\/kg?<\/h2>\n
How long before cycling surpasses 7w\/kg? (Photo: Dario Belingheri\/Getty Images)<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The question on everyone\u2019s minds: How long can the momentum remain in cycling\u2019s high-speed evolution?<\/p>\n

Poga\u010dar saw huge gains in 2024 and 2025 courtesy of a full training overhaul by UAE Emirates-XRG staffer Javier Sola, but at 27, he\u2019s not slowing down.<\/p>\n

And elsewhere, rivals like Evenepoel and Vingegaard will maintain, if not bridge the gap.\u00a0Escalating team budgets and a sport reaching rocket science will drag the whole peloton toward Poga\u010dar\u2019s benchmarks.<\/p>\n

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Our bet?<\/p>\n

The 7w\/kg barrier won\u2019t stay upright too much longer.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Source URL: https:\/\/velo.outsideonline.com\/road\/road-racing\/pogacar-data-tour-de-france\/<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Updated November 19, 2025 08:41AM Eddy Merckx better stop reading now. A fresh analysis of Tadej Poga\u010dar\u2019s recent Tour de France climbing performances reconfirms the Slovenian super-cyclist as a physiological GOAT, and highlights the wild extremes of the sport\u2019s modern era. Data published by the Journal of Science and Cycling this week put Poga\u010dar\u2019s VO2 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":714067,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[71],"class_list":["post-714066","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics","tag-velo-outsideonline-com"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/714066","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=714066"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/714066\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/714067"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=714066"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=714066"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=714066"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}