{"id":478892,"date":"2024-12-31T15:33:35","date_gmt":"2024-12-31T12:33:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=478892"},"modified":"2024-12-31T15:33:35","modified_gmt":"2024-12-31T12:33:35","slug":"economistul-cristian-socol-despre-o-legenda-care-circula-in-aceste-zile-s-a-promis-ceva-in-declaratiile-publice-si-s-a-facut-altceva","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=478892","title":{"rendered":"Economistul Cristian Socol, despre &#8216;o legend\u0103 care circul\u0103 \u00een aceste zile&#8217;: S-a promis ceva \u00een declara\u021biile publice \u0219i s-a f\u0103cut altceva?"},"content":{"rendered":"<section class=\"article-content article-content--v2\">\n<h3><strong>Economistul Cristian Socol a publicat o analiz\u0103 detaliat\u0103 pe Facebook \u00een care r\u0103spunde criticilor legate de m\u0103surile economice luate de actuala guvernare. Socol ofer\u0103 argumente ample \u0219i explic\u0103 contextul macroeconomic care a influen\u021bat deciziile recente. <\/strong><\/h3>\n<h3><strong><span>\u201eNu exist\u0103 consecven\u021b\u0103\u201d \u2013 o acuza\u021bie f\u0103r\u0103 baze solide?<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Socol \u00eencepe prin a contracara ideea c\u0103 ar fi lipsit consecven\u021ba \u00een politicile guvernamentale recente:<\/p>\n<p>\u201e\u0218tim cu to\u021bii c\u0103 deciziile macroeconomice se iau pe baza unor date \u0219i a unor estim\u0103ri. [&#8230;] Situa\u021bia macroeconomic\u0103 era stabil\u0103, chiar dac\u0103 unii indicatori de avertizare timpurie ar\u0103tau un val de contagiune negativ\u0103 dinspre \u021b\u0103rile dezvoltate europene, cu care avem 70% din exporturi \u0219i importuri.\u201d<\/p>\n<div class=\"mid-article-partners\">\n<div class=\"partners-widget js-partners-widget\">\n<article class=\"partner-article loading\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.stiripesurse.ro\/rss\/feeds\/bugetul.json\" data-index=\"0\" data-src-name=\"bugetul.ro\">\n<div class=\"partner-article__image-container\"><img src alt class=\"partner-article__image invisible\"><\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"partner-article loading\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.stiripesurse.ro\/rss\/feeds\/bugetul.json\" data-index=\"1\" data-src-name=\"bugetul.ro\">\n<div class=\"partner-article__image-container\"><img src alt class=\"partner-article__image invisible\"><\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"partner-article loading hide-on-mobile\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.stiripesurse.ro\/rss\/feeds\/bugetul.json\" data-index=\"2\" data-src-name=\"bugetul.ro\">\n<div class=\"partner-article__image-container\"><img src alt class=\"partner-article__image invisible\"><\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"partners-widget js-partners-widget\">\n<article class=\"partner-article loading\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.stiripesurse.ro\/rss\/feeds\/sportpesurse.json\" data-index=\"0\" data-src-name=\"sportpesurse.ro\">\n<div class=\"partner-article__image-container\"><img src alt class=\"partner-article__image invisible\"><\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"partner-article loading hide-on-mobile\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.stiripesurse.ro\/rss\/feeds\/sportpesurse.json\" data-index=\"1\" data-src-name=\"sportpesurse.ro\">\n<div class=\"partner-article__image-container\"><img src alt class=\"partner-article__image invisible\"><\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"partner-article loading hide-on-mobile\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.stiripesurse.ro\/rss\/feeds\/sportpesurse.json\" data-index=\"2\" data-src-name=\"sportpesurse.ro\">\n<div class=\"partner-article__image-container\"><img src alt class=\"partner-article__image invisible\"><\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Economistul subliniaz\u0103 c\u0103 nimeni nu poate izola o \u021bar\u0103 de influen\u021bele economice globale, mai ales \u00een cadrul Uniunii Europene:<\/p>\n<p>\u201eHm, cine crede c\u0103 vreo \u021bar\u0103 din UE tr\u0103ie\u0219te economic izolat de ceea ce se \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103 \u00een celelalte \u021b\u0103ri, ori nu \u0219tie carte, ori este tic\u0103los.\u201d<\/p>\n<h3><strong><span>Factori de destabilizare economic\u0103<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Conform analizei lui Socol, contextul economic s-a deteriorat rapid \u00een ultimele luni:<\/p>\n<p>\u201ePrognoza de toamn\u0103 a Comisiei Europene din 15 noiembrie 2024 indica o deteriorare consistent\u0103 a principalilor indicatori macroeconomici \u00een 14 \u021b\u0103ri din UE fa\u021b\u0103 de prognoza de prim\u0103var\u0103. [&#8230;] La \u00eenceputul lui decembrie, Comisia Na\u021bional\u0103 de Prognoz\u0103 a publicat estim\u0103rile pentru Rom\u00e2nia, ar\u0103t\u00e2nd un efect de decelerare economic\u0103.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Pe l\u00e2ng\u0103 prognozele nefavorabile, retrograd\u0103rile de rating au fost un alt semnal de alarm\u0103:<\/p>\n<p>\u201eMoody\u2019s a retrogradat ratingul Fran\u021bei \u00een 14 decembrie, iar patru zile mai t\u00e2rziu agen\u021bia de rating Fitch a redus perspectiva economiei Rom\u00e2niei de la stabil la negativ, \u00een mare m\u0103sur\u0103 din cauza contagiunii maximei incertitudini politice \u00een domeniile economic \u0219i social.\u201d<\/p>\n<h3><strong><span>Deciziile urgente \u2013 de ce nu se puteau anticipa<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Socol explic\u0103 necesitatea m\u0103surilor rapide:<\/p>\n<p>\u201e\u00cen timpuri de maxim\u0103 incertitudine, de volatilitate major\u0103, \u00een timpuri de criz\u0103 \u2013 timpul se comprim\u0103. [&#8230;] Dac\u0103 \u00ee\u021bi tremur\u0103 genunchii, mai bine pleci, nu ai ce c\u0103uta \u00eentr-o func\u021bie de decizie.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>El subliniaz\u0103 c\u0103 inac\u021biunea ar fi avut consecin\u021be grave:<\/p>\n<p>\u201eInac\u021biunea \u00een a forma Guvernul rapid \u00eensemna un cost de 1 miliard lei pe zi pierderi. [&#8230;] O cre\u0219tere cu 2 puncte procentuale a dob\u00e2nzilor la \u00eemprumuturile \u00een lei \u0219i valut\u0103 ar fi \u00eensemnat un cost de 5 miliarde lei (1 miliard euro) pe dob\u00e2nzi mai mari pl\u0103tite creditorilor.\u201d<\/p>\n<h3><strong><span>Economia rom\u00e2neasc\u0103 nu func\u021bioneaz\u0103 pe \u201epilot automat\u201d<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Criticii care sus\u021bin c\u0103 economia ar putea func\u021biona independent de deciziile guvernamentale sunt contrazi\u0219i:<\/p>\n<p>\u201eEste mediul de afaceri at\u00e2t de puternic, este economia real\u0103 at\u00e2t de puternic\u0103 \u00eenc\u00e2t s\u0103 func\u021bioneze eficient, decuplat de decizia guvernamental\u0103 \u0219i politic\u0103? Func\u021bioneaz\u0103 pe dracu. [&#8230;] \u00cen astfel de momente, aproape toat\u0103 lumea cere m\u0103suri \u0219i sprijin de la Guvern.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Socol atrage aten\u021bia asupra comportamentului de criz\u0103 al actorilor economici:<\/p>\n<p>\u201eProiecte de investi\u021bii puse pe hold, mai degrab\u0103 economisire dec\u00e2t consum, pruden\u021b\u0103 maxim\u0103.\u201d<\/p>\n<h3><strong><span>Concluzii \u0219i perspective<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Cristian Socol \u00eencheie postarea printr-un apel la realism \u0219i responsabilitate:<\/p>\n<p>\u201eA\u0219adar, \u0219tiu c\u0103 a arunca vina, a proiecta vina este cel mai comod&#8230; nu este cazul de data aceasta. Da, s-au f\u0103cut \u0219i gre\u0219eli.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Economistul promite c\u0103 va detalia m\u0103surile propuse \u00een primele zile ale anului viitor, oferind astfel o perspectiv\u0103 mai clar\u0103 asupra solu\u021biilor guvernamentale..<\/p>\n<figure class=\"op-interactive\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"500\" height=\"535\" src=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/plugins\/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fcristian.socol.5%2Fposts%2Fpfbid02Qs4wRis4AUuQSbShTt6sHyBeHLVor4RXvbdgKhzDKa2XkozK1aow8rxRet4d3h8nl&amp;show_text=true&amp;width=500\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder allowfullscreen=\"true\"><\/iframe><\/figure>\n<\/section>\n<p> Source URL: https:\/\/www.stiripesurse.ro\/economistul-cristian-socol-despre-o-legenda-care-circula-in-aceste-zile-s-a-promis-ceva-in-declaratiile-publice-si-s-a-facut-altceva_3538471.html<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Economistul Cristian Socol a publicat o analiz\u0103 detaliat\u0103 pe Facebook \u00een care r\u0103spunde criticilor legate de m\u0103surile economice luate de actuala guvernare. Socol ofer\u0103 argumente ample \u0219i explic\u0103 contextul macroeconomic care a influen\u021bat deciziile recente. \u201eNu exist\u0103 consecven\u021b\u0103\u201d \u2013 o acuza\u021bie f\u0103r\u0103 baze solide? Socol \u00eencepe prin a contracara ideea c\u0103 ar fi lipsit consecven\u021ba [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":478893,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[9],"class_list":["post-478892","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics","tag-stiripesurse-ro"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/478892","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=478892"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/478892\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/478893"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=478892"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=478892"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=478892"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}