{"id":267082,"date":"2024-10-27T02:34:10","date_gmt":"2024-10-26T23:34:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=267082"},"modified":"2024-10-31T19:20:59","modified_gmt":"2024-10-31T16:20:59","slug":"institutul-gold-starea-interna-a-partidelor-si-candidatii-la-prezidentiale-lupta-pentru-putere-in-psd-cine-sprijina-din-umbra-cele-3-tabere","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=267082","title":{"rendered":"Institutul GOLD: starea intern\u0103 a partidelor \u0219i candida\u021bii la preziden\u021biale – Lupta pentru putere \u00een PSD – Cine sprijin\u0103 din umbr\u0103 cele 3 tabere"},"content":{"rendered":"<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t Institutul GOLD a publicat un prim raport prin care este analizat\u0103 starea intern\u0103 a PSD \u0219i posibilii candida\u021bi la preziden\u021biale.
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Iat\u0103 ce se arat\u0103 \u00een raportul Institutului Gold, publicat de solidnews.ro<\/a>, despre starea intern\u0103 a PSD:<\/p>\n

“1.Evolu\u021bia recent\u0103<\/p>\n

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\u00cen cursul anului 2022 evolu\u021bia PSD a fost liniar\u0103, f\u0103r\u0103 fluctua\u021bii majore la nivelul suportului public, ca urmare a consolid\u0103rii coeziunii interne \u0219i a bunei administr\u0103ri a comunic\u0103rii publice. Prezen\u021ba la guvernare, dar f\u0103r\u0103 asumarea coordon\u0103rii simbolice a acesteia, a oferit PSD posibilitatea de a alimenta cu fonduri guvernamentale administra\u021biile locale pe care le are \u00een coordonare, respectiv a scutit partidul de acumularea unui pasiv negativ major la nivelul percep\u021biei publice. Guvernarea al\u0103turi de PNL, de tip \u2019\u2019copilot\u2019\u2019, a asigurat PSD \u0219i neutralizarea principalului critic, \u00een persoana pre\u0219edintelui Klaus Iohannis, iar regizarea atacurilor reciproce cu peneli\u0219tii, operat\u0103 \u00eencep\u00e2nd cu prim\u0103vara lui 2022, a func\u021bionat tot \u00een avantajul de percep\u021bie al pesedi\u0219tilor. Spre finalul anului trecut, printr-o decizie intempestiv\u0103 \u0219i nergumentat\u0103 public, Klaus Iohannis a \u00eencercat s\u0103 dinamiteze parcursul PSD prin eliminarea din Guvern a ministrului ap\u0103r\u0103rii Vasile D\u00eencu. Folosind o tehnic\u0103 non-reactiv\u0103, specific\u0103 sporturilor de contact de tip judo sau aikido, PSD a reu\u0219it s\u0103 diminueze impactul public al loviturii, dar astfel s-a ob\u021binut totu\u0219i proiectarea unui viitor pol de diziden\u021b\u0103 intern\u0103 \u00een partid, ce se va construi \u00een jurul fostului ministru clujean. Apari\u021bia asumat\u0103 a lui Mircea Geoan\u0103 \u00een jocul politic intern este un alt element destabilizant, dar exterior partidului, ce-a \u00eenceput s\u0103-i testeze anduran\u021ba sub spectrul unei viitoare candidaturi la preziden\u021biale, sugerat\u0103 ca fiind sprijinit\u0103 de c\u0103tre SUA (de la nivelul Pentagonului), deci func\u021bion\u00e2nd \u00een mod implicit ca mijloc de presiune puternic\u0103 asupra deciziei PSD.<\/p>\n

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2. Starea intern\u0103 actual\u0103<\/p>\n

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Din punct de vedere al percep\u021biei publice, PSD apare ca fiind partidul cu cele mai pu\u021bine probleme de coeziune intern\u0103, iar acest lucru se datoreaz\u0103 experien\u021bei politice semnificative a liderilor na\u021bionali \u0219i jude\u021beni, ce-au \u00eenv\u0103\u021bat s\u0103-\u0219i administreze disensiunile conjuncturale \u00eentr-un mod colocvial-discret. Lupta inerent\u0103 \u00eentre pesedi\u0219ti pentru putere \u0219i influen\u021b\u0103 asupra ac\u021biunilor guvernamentale, \u00eempreun\u0103 cu interesele implic\u0103rii \u00een deciziile interne de partid ale grup\u0103rilor din serviciile secrete (SRI, SPP, SIE, DGIA) sau ale nou ap\u0103rutei \u2018\u2019Divizia Rezervi\u0219tilor\u2019\u2019 (Divizia R), au generat apari\u021bia a trei tabere \u00een PSD, ce-\u0219i disput\u0103 autoritatea \u00een conclavurile interne, departe \u00eens\u0103 (deocamdat\u0103) de percep\u021bia public\u0103.<\/p>\n

Tab\u0103ra dominant\u0103 este condus\u0103 de c\u0103tre Marcel Ciolacu care, beneficiind de autoritatea public\u0103 a pre\u0219edintelui de partid, necontestat\u0103 \u00een mod tradi\u021bional \u00een PSD, \u00ee\u0219i impune \u00een mod fluid deciziile interne sau pe cele privitoare la guvernare. Rela\u021bia consolidat\u0103 pe care Ciolacu o are cu liderii actuali ai PNL \u0219i UDMR, plus sprijinul explicit din partea unor \u0219efi de servicii secrete, respectiv suportul mass-media generat prin contractele partidului, \u00eei asigur\u0103 lini\u0219tea pentru moment liderului PSD. \u00cen acela\u0219i timp \u00eens\u0103, tocmai din colaborarea privilegiat\u0103 cu Hunor Kelemen \u0219i UDMR apar \u0219i vulnerabilit\u0103\u021bi serioase pentru Ciolacu, at\u00e2t la nivelul rela\u021bion\u0103rii cu PNL, nemul\u021bumit de acest cle\u0219te pesedisto-udemerist \u00een care se vede prins, dar \u0219i \u00een interiorul PSD, unde nemul\u021bumi\u021bii au priceput c\u0103 liderul partidului folose\u0219te jocul cu UDMR ca scuz\u0103 pentru ne\u00eendeplinirea unor deziderate ale lor.<\/p>\n

A doua tab\u0103r\u0103 \u00eei are la conducere pe primvice-pre\u0219edintele Gabriela Firea \u0219i pe secretarul general Paul St\u0103nescu, care \u00eencearc\u0103 s\u0103 acumuleze mai mult\u0103 influen\u021b\u0103 la nivelul organiza\u021biilor locale, pozi\u021bion\u00e2ndu-se deocamdat\u0103 ca un rezervor t\u0103cut de diziden\u021b\u0103, pentru cei ce se consider\u0103 nedrept\u0103\u021bi\u021bi de hot\u0103r\u00e2rile lui Marcel Ciolacu. Aceast\u0103 tab\u0103r\u0103 se bazeaz\u0103 \u0219i pe sprijinul unor fo\u0219ti sau actuali adjunc\u021bi din SRI, respectiv pe cel al \u0219efului SPP, ce sprijin\u0103 astfel o mi\u0219care de diziden\u021b\u0103 de care e interesat Klaus Iohannis.<\/p>\n

A treia tab\u0103r\u0103 s-a constituit recent, \u00een jurul lui Vasile D\u00eencu, pre\u0219edintele Consiliului Na\u021bional al PSD, \u0219i se vrea remarcat\u0103 \u0219i consolidat\u0103 \u00een baza mesajului public de tip anti-Iohannis. \u00cen aceast\u0103 tab\u0103r\u0103 se distinge \u0219i prezen\u021ba meteoric\u0103 a primvice-pre\u0219edintelui Sorin Grindeanu, care baleiaz\u0103 \u00een mod conjunctural, venind din echipa Ciolacu. Aceast\u0103 tab\u0103r\u0103 beneficiaz\u0103 de sprijinul consistent al Diviziei R, cu George Maior \u0219i Florian Coldea inclu\u0219i, dar \u0219i al unor \u0219efi operativi din serviciile secrete, care-\u0219i fac astfel obi\u0219nuitul joc de diziden\u021b\u0103 fa\u021b\u0103 de directorii civili, dar acest sprijin pare c\u0103 este condi\u021bionat de un viitor scop de sciziune a PSD, de care cei enumera\u021bi anterior sunt interesa\u021bi, pentru favorizarea unei alte construc\u021bii politice comune, compus\u0103 din USR, Reper, For\u021ba Dreptei.<\/p>\n

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3. Candida\u021bii la preziden\u021biale<\/p>\n

Exist\u0103 azi trei candida\u021bi asuma\u021bi cu profil \u0219i poten\u021bial de tip preziden\u021bial \u00een PSD, Marcel Ciolacu, Gabriela Firea, Vasile D\u00eencu, respectiv unul cu statut de rezerv\u0103, \u00een persoana lui Mihai Tudose (Alexandru Rafila pare c\u0103 \u0219i-a pierdut relevan\u021ba, din acest punct de vedere). Media scorurilor cercet\u0103rilor sociologice publice sau interne o indic\u0103 azi pe Gabriela Firea ca lider la capitolul \u00eencredere public\u0103, ac\u021biunile \u0219i m\u0103surile operate din pozi\u021bia de ministru al familiei \u0219i tineretului fiind dedicate \u00een mod vizibil consolid\u0103rii acestei pozi\u021bii. Marcel Ciolacu \u00ee\u0219i disput\u0103 locul secund cu Vasile D\u00eencu care, dup\u0103 o involu\u021bie generat\u0103 de administrarea relativ confuz\u0103 \u0219i nepopular\u0103 a portofoliului Ap\u0103r\u0103rii, a fost propulsat chiar de ac\u021biunea lui Iohannis \u00eempotriva sa. D\u00eencu a \u00een\u021beles acest lucru, iar prin criticile acide \u0219i ritmice la adresa pre\u0219edintelui, vrea s\u0103 fructicifice acest culoar care i s-a oferit \u00een mod conjunctural. Mihai Tudose \u00ee\u0219i asum\u0103 deocamdat\u0103 \u00een mod \u00een\u021belept postura de rezerv\u0103, situ\u00e2ndu-se la un nivel de \u00eencredere public\u0103 consistent, pe care-l va putea folosi ca baz\u0103 de evolu\u021bie ascendent\u0103 dac\u0103 i se va oferi prilejul. Mircea Geoan\u0103 reprezint\u0103 o candidatur\u0103 neasumat\u0103 de c\u0103tre PSD, scorul s\u0103u de \u00eencredere pentru publicul PSD fiind situat azi sub al celor patru enumera\u021bi mai sus. Geoan\u0103 \u0219i-a construit \u00eens\u0103 \u00een ultimul an o structur\u0103 de sprijin ce e compus\u0103 din personalit\u0103\u021bi din mediile academice sau de afaceri, chiar fo\u0219ti lideri locali ai PSD \u0219i, baz\u00e2ndu-se \u0219i pe suportul aproape explicit al americanilor, venit \u00een siajul func\u021biei pe care o are \u00een NATO, sper\u0103 s\u0103 poat\u0103 \u00eentoarce \u00een favoarea sa decizia de nominalizare din partea PSD, f\u0103r\u0103 de care candidatura sa va fi cotat\u0103 la un nivel irelevant.<\/p>\n

Evolu\u021bia competi\u021biei interne \u00eentre cei men\u021biona\u021bi \u00eel indic\u0103 azi ca protagonist pe Vasile D\u00eencu care, pe l\u00e2ng\u0103 statutul consolidat de intelectual, ce n-a fost avariat de mandatul la MAPN, mai are \u0219i beneficiul pozi\u021bion\u0103rii singulare anti-Iohannis, ce e previzibil c\u0103 se va radicaliza. Gabriela Firea, de\u0219i e bine sprijinit\u0103 de la nivelul secretarului general Paul St\u0103nescu, va pierde din vitez\u0103 \u00een urma unor deja anun\u021bate (pe surse) scandaluri ce-o vor ajunge din urm\u0103 \u0219i vor avea inciden\u021b\u0103 la Parchete, la care se vor ad\u0103uga avatarurile frontului deschis cu Nicu\u0219or Dan \u0219i puternicii s\u0103i sprijinitori. Marcel Ciolacu este \u00eencorsetat chiar de pozi\u021biile sale de pre\u0219edinte de partid \u0219i lider al Coali\u021biei de guvernare, iar dac\u0103 vrea s\u0103-\u0219i l\u0103rgeasc\u0103 baza de sus\u021binere public\u0103 va trebui s\u0103 recurg\u0103 la pozi\u021bion\u0103ri de tipul suspend\u0103rii lui Iohannis sau ac\u021biuni explicite \u00eempotriva exceselor Factorului Extern, ce sunt posibile, dar inabordabile pentru el, cel pu\u021bin pentru moment. Mircea Geoan\u0103 poate c\u0103p\u0103ta \u0219i el mai mult\u0103 relevan\u021b\u0103, generat\u0103 tocmai prin fructificarea afirma\u021biei lui Ciolacu referitoare la un candidat PSD din afara partidului, dar soarta lui electoral\u0103 este totu\u0219i total dependent\u0103 de soarta r\u0103zboiului din Ucraina \u0219i consolidarea sau nu a autorit\u0103\u021bii geopolitice a americanilor \u00een regiune.”<\/p>\n

Iat\u0103 textul \u00een englez\u0103:<\/p>\n

The GOLD Institute will publish a series of reports with monthly and short-term rhythmicity, in case of significant events, regarding internal or external political environments. The data subject to the analysis are provided from public sources of information, internal sources from political parties, published or discrete research of some public opinion polling institutes (CURS, Sociopol, Avangarde, INSCOP, INSOMAR).<\/p>\n

Internal status of parties and presidential candidates (PSD and PNL, February 2023)<\/p>\n

PSD<\/p>\n

1. Recent evolution during 2022 PSD evolution was linear, without major fluctuations in public support, as a result of strengthening internal cohesion and good administration of public communication. The presence in the government, but without taking on its symbolic coordination, offered the PSD the possibility to feed with government funds the local administrations it has in coordination, respectively it exempted the party from accumulating a major negative liability in the public perception. The governance with PNL, of the \u2018co-pilot\u2019 type, ensured the PSD and the neutralization of the main critic, in the person of President Klaus Iohannis, and the directing of the mutual attacks with the PNL-ists, operated from the spring of 2022, also worked to the advantage of the pessimists\u2019 perception. Towards the end of last year, through an unintentional and publicly imposed decision, Klaus Iohannis tried to dynamize the PSD\u2019s course by eliminating from the Government the Minister of Defense Vasile D\u00eencu. Using a non-reactive technique, specific to judo or aikido contact sports, PSD managed to diminish the public impact of the blow, but thus the design of a future pole of internal dissent in the party was obtained, which will be built around the former minister of Cluj. The appearance of Mircea Geoan\u0103 in the internal political game is another destabilizing element, but outside the party, which has begun to test its endurance under the specter of a future presidential candidacy, suggested as being supported by the US (from the Pentagon level), thus functioning implicitly as a means of strong pressure on the PSD decision.<\/p>\n

2. The current internal state<\/p>\n

From the point of view of public perception, the PSD appears as the party with the least problems of internal cohesion, and this is due to the significant political experience of the national and county leaders, who have learned to administer their conjunctural dissensions in a colloquial-discrete way. The inherent struggle between the peasants for power and influence on the governmental actions, together with the interests of being involved in the internal party decisions of the secret services groups (SRI, SPP, SIE, DGIA) or of the newly emerged \u201d Reserve Division \u201d (Division R), have generated the emergence of three camps in the PSD, which dispute and contest each of their authority in private meetings, but far away from public perception (for now). The dominant camp is led by Marcel Ciolacu who, benefiting from the public authority of the party president, traditionally undisputed in the PSD, fluidly imposes his internal decisions or those regarding the government. The consolidated relationship that Ciolacu has with the current leaders of PNL and UDMR, plus the explicit support from some secret service heads, respectively the media support generated by the party contracts, assures the PSD leader for the moment. At the same time, however, precisely from the privileged collaboration with Hunor Kelemen and UDMR there are also serious vulnerabilities for Ciolacu, both in relation to PNL, dissatisfied with these PSD-UDMR pliers in which he is caught, but also inside the PSD, where the dissatisfied understand that the party leader uses the game with the UDMR to justify his failure to fulfill their wishes. The second camp is leading the first-time President Gabriela Firea and Secretary General Paul St\u0103nescu, who are trying to accumulate more influence at the level of local organizations, positioning themselves for the moment as a silent reservoir of dissent, for those who consider themselves wronged by Marcel Ciola. This camp is also based on the support of former or current deputies from the SRI, respectively that of the SPP chief, who thus supports a dissent movement that Klaus Iohannis is interested in. The third camp was recently set up, around Vasile D\u00eencu, the president of the National Council of the PSD, and it is noticed and consolidated based on the anti-Iohannis public message. In this camp is distinguished the meteoric presence of PrimeVice-President Sorin Grindeanu, who sweeps in a conjunctural way, coming from the Ciolacu team. This camp benefits from the consistent support of the R division, with George Maior and Florian Coldea included, as well as some operative heads of the secret services, who thus make their usual dissent game against the civilian directors, but this support seems to be conditioned by a future purpose of the PSD\u2019s split, in which the ones listed above are interested with the aim of constructing another common political allience, formed by USR, Reper, the Force of the Right.3<\/p>\n

. Presidential candidates<\/p>\n

Today there are three assumed candidates with a presidential profile and potential in PSD, Marcel Ciolacu, Gabriela Firea, Vasile D\u00eencu, respectively one with reserve status, in the person of Mihai Tudose (Alexandru Rafila seems to have lost his relevance, from this point of sight). The average scores of public or internal sociological research today indicate Gabriela Firea as the leader in the public trust chapter, the actions and measures operated from the position of Minister of Family and Youth being visibly dedicated to the consolidation of this position. Marcel Ciolacu disputes the second place with Vasile D\u00eencu who, after an involution generated by the relatively confused and unpopular administration of the Defense portfolio was propelled even by Iohannis\u2019 action against him. D\u00eencu understood this, and through his acid and rhythmic criticisms of the president, he wants to make this corridor that was offered to him in a conjunctural way fruitful. Mihai Tudose wisely assumes the reserve position for the time being, standing at a consistent level of public trust, which he will be able to use as a basis for upward evolution if given the opportunity. Mircea Geoan\u0103 represents a candidacy not assumed by the PSD, his trust score for the PSD public being today below the four listed above. However, in the last year, Geoana has built a support structure that is composed of personalities from the academic or business circles, even former local leaders of the PSD and, relying on the almost explicit support of the Americans, who came into office he has in NATO, he hopes to be able to turn in his favor the PSD\u2019s nomination decision, without which his candidacy will be rated at an irrelevant level.<\/p>\n

The evolution of the internal competition between those mentioned today points to Vasile D\u00eencu as the protagonist who, in addition to the consolidated status of an intellectual, which was not damaged by the mandate at MAPN, also has the benefit of the singular anti-Iohannis positioning, which is predictable to be radicalized. Gabriela Firea, although she is well supported at the level of Secretary General Paul St\u0103nescu, will lose speed due to already announced (according to sources) scandals that will catch up with her and will affect the Public Prosecutor\u2019s Office, to which the avatars of the front will be added open with Nicu\u0219or Dan and his strong supporters. Marcel Ciolacu is even constrained by his positions as party president and leader of the governing Coalition, and if he wants to widen his public support base, he will have to resort to positions such as the suspension of Iohannis or explicit actions against the excesses of the External Factor, which are possible, but unapproachable for him, at least for the time being. Mircea Geoan\u0103 can also gain more relevance, generated precisely by the fruition of Ciolacu\u2019s statement regarding a PSD candidate from outside the party, but his electoral fate is still totally dependent on the fate of the war in Ukraine and the consolidation or lack thereof of the geopolitical authority of the Americans in the region.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Source URL: https:\/\/www.realitatea.net\/stiri\/actual\/institutul-gold-starea-interna-a-partidelor-si-candidatii-la-prezidentiale_63de376bfabda43c4463fbe2<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Institutul GOLD a publicat un prim raport prin care este analizat\u0103 starea intern\u0103 a PSD \u0219i posibilii candida\u021bi la preziden\u021biale. Iat\u0103 ce se arat\u0103 \u00een raportul Institutului Gold, publicat de solidnews.ro, despre starea intern\u0103 a PSD: “1.Evolu\u021bia recent\u0103 \u00cen cursul anului 2022 evolu\u021bia PSD a fost liniar\u0103, f\u0103r\u0103 fluctua\u021bii majore la nivelul suportului public, ca […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":342362,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[15],"class_list":["post-267082","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics","tag-realitatea-net"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/267082","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=267082"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/267082\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":342361,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/267082\/revisions\/342361"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/342362"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=267082"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=267082"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=267082"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}